Sudan and Ethiopia may be inching towards an all-out conflict sparked by their border dispute. If that happens, that war will have just as much to do with domestic politics as their territorial tussle.
In recent weeks, deadly clashes, a war of words and the amassing of troops near the border fuelled tension between the two African neighbours, whose relations have over the years been defined by a mix of close social and economic ties as well as lengthy bouts of enmity.
Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, Sudan’s de facto head of state, has taken the lead in escalating tension on the border, employing fiery, anti-Ethiopian rhetoric laced with patriotism as he repeatedly spoke about the need to liberate every inch of Sudanese territory.
He further stoked tensions with a widely-publicised visit last week to the border region following a cross-border raid blamed on an Ethiopian government-backed militia that killed at least five women and a child.
At the root of the border crisis are pockets of fertile farmland just inside the Sudanese border which have long been settled by members of Ethiopia’s ethnic Amhara group.
Sudanese troops in late December wrested back control of several of these areas, a move that Addis Ababa labelled as unwarranted aggression.
“Sudan does not want to go to war with Ethiopia or any other neighbouring country, but will not surrender a single inch of its territory,” Gen Al Burhan, addressing senior army officers, was quoted as saying by state media on Wednesday.
Analysts described the latest verbal escalation by Sudan’s leader as part of a drive to boost the military’s image as the sole protector of the nation and its people.
“It is very clear that the military is more enthusiastic about a confrontation with Ethiopia than anyone else in Sudan,” said Rasha Awad, a Sudanese political analyst.
“The military is milking the public’s sympathy as the defender of Sudan’s territory,” she added.
Gen Al Burhan heads the 11-member Sovereignty Council that has acted as the country’s collective presidency under a power-sharing agreement between the generals who removed dictator Omar Al Bashir in April 2019 and the pro-democracy movement that orchestrated months of street protests against the former president’s rule.
But the civilian government, led by career UN economist Abdallah Hamdok, appears to be not in favour of a conflict with any of Sudan’s neighbours at a time when the country’s transition to democratic rule is fraught with uncertainty. The government’s popularity also is believed to be eroding by persisting poor economic conditions.
“The government is facing an impasse as it cannot order a halt to military operations when a foreign country is occupying Sudanese land. This decision is tantamount to political suicide,” said Mrs Awad.
'Sudan does not want to go to war with Ethiopia or any other neighbouring country, but will not surrender a single inch of its territory,"
In Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing pressure from the Amhara to confront Sudan’s efforts to wrest back control of border areas lying within the Sudanese border and settled for decades by farmers from the powerful ethnic group.
The Amhara also have historical claims on Sudan’s eastern breadbasket region, which will make any concessions by the prime minister to avoid war politically costly.
This comes as Mr Ahmad is in the middle of a major military campaign to crush a separatist rebellion in the northern Tigray region.
“He is heavily relying on militias from Amhara in the fighting to remove Tigray’s rebel government,” explained William Davison, the International Crisis Group’s Ethiopia expert. “Success there is key to his political survival.”
But fighting two simultaneous wars will not be a wise decision to take by the Ethiopian leader, he said.
“Mr Abiy is not in a good position to open another front with Sudan that in turn will have a bearing on the Tigray conflict,” Mr Davison said.
Ethiopia's PM Abiy Ahmed is facing pressure from Amhara Ethnic group to confront Sudan's efforts to wrest back control of border areas
The Amhara’s political elite were already in an “assertive” mood, he added, seeking redress for what they see as years of discrimination against them under Ethiopia’s ethnic federal system that Tigray’s ruling party was instrumental in designing.
In November, for example, factions from the powerful Amhara ethnic group took advantage of the fighting in Tigray to pour into western areas on the Sudanese border that they have long claimed, creating a de facto situation on the ground there.
“The Amhara elite and nationalists are at the ascendancy, claiming lands in both Tigray and Benishangul-Gumuz regions,” said the ICG’s expert reached in Nairobi, Kenya. “That would make it politically tricky for Abiy’s government to prioritise accommodation with Sudan on this issue, even if it was minded to.”
The Ethiopian leader is also under further pressure at home not to offer concessions in negotiations with Egypt and Sudan on the running of a massive Nile dam Addis Ababa is building.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, is fuelling tension with the two downstream nations and is undermining stability in the entire region.
Last year, Sudan abandoned its perceived pro-Ethiopian stand in the negotiations over the GERD and has in recent weeks repeatedly expressed its anger over its neighbour’s reluctance to enter a legally-binding deal on the operation of the hydroelectric dam.
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
More coverage from the Future Forum
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Episode list:
Ep1: A recovery like no other- the unevenness of the economic recovery
Ep2: PCR and jobs - the future of work - new trends and challenges
Ep3: The recovery and global trade disruptions - globalisation post-pandemic
Ep4: Inflation- services and goods - debt risks
Ep5: Travel and tourism
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MATCH INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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The five pillars of Islam
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
Last-16 Europa League fixtures
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
