All three Nigerian front-runners claim they are on path to presidency

The three front-runners in Nigeria’s hotly contested presidential election each claimed to be heading for victory on Monday as preliminary results trickled in two days after Africa's most populous nation went to the polls.

Only four of Nigeria's 36 states had officially announced results by midday, with three of those going to Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) party. The fourth was won by Atiku Abubakar, of the main opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP).

Also in the mix is the Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, who enjoys widespread support among the youth. A winner is not expected to be announced until at least Tuesday. It took four days for officials to declare a winner in the 2019 election.

A run-off election will be held if no candidate secures at least a quarter of the votes from two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital city, in addition to receiving the highest number of votes.

On Monday, the African Union observer mission said voting had been delayed in more than 80 per cent of polling units, mainly because of logistical challenges caused by Nigeria’s currency swap programme.

The redesign of the Nigerian bank note, the naira, caused cash shortages nationwide and voters and poll workers had difficulties getting to polling stations on Saturday. Voters in some states had to wait until late in the evening to cast ballots, while in other states voting continued on Sunday.

Observers from the AU and the West African regional bloc known as Ecowas said the election was generally “encouraging” except for isolated cases of violence that disrupted voting in some states.

After Mr Tinubu's victory in Ekiti state, the incumbent party said it was on course to stay in power.

“If the information we are beginning to receive from various parts of the country is anything to go by, one has every reason to be optimistic that our candidate will win”, Abdullahi Adamu, the APC chairman, told the state-run News Agency of Nigeria.

The PDP claimed victory for Mr Abubakar, saying people had turned out “en masse to give their votes” to the party.

“From preliminary results, it is clear that Atiku Abubakar’s message of hope, unity, security and rebuilding of our nation has been positively received by Nigerians”, the PDP said in a statement.

The Labour Party also claimed that its candidate was winning, though Mr Obi did not win any of the states declared.

“We are far ahead and we are already leading and we are winning in 24 states”, said Yunusa Tanko, spokesman for the Labour Party.

Mr Obi is a surprise contender in what is usually a two-horse race, with his popularity surging in polls ahead of the vote. The party accused election officials of not being present in their strongholds and said some of their supporters were denied the chance to vote.

As the full results have yet to be announced, analysts caution that early unsubstantiated claims of victory will only deepen public mistrust of the electoral process and undermine the legitimacy of the polls.

“The claims by the three parties aim to motivate their voters who are urged to protect ballot boxes from rigging. But the unsubstantiated claims of victory increase the risk of protests, both peaceful and violent by disappointed voters,” said Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence company.