KABUL // Changes of government are rarely straightforward in Afghanistan but the stakes in Saturday’s presidential election could not be higher.
The incumbent, Hamid Karzai, who has been in power since 2001, is barred by the constitution from standing again and his successor will take over as US and Nato troops are completing their withdrawal after 13 years of conflict.
A free and fair vote followed by a smooth transition of power will help temper concerns that a civil war lies around the corner. Anything else and the future stability of the entire region could be called into question.
Campaigning that began in early February ended on Thursday and posters of the candidates could still be seen throughout Kabul. Large public rallies have also been held in towns and cities, giving encouragement to those who insist that democracy is alive and well.
However, widespread insecurity, allegations of government interference and the controversial backgrounds of those running for office are threatening to undermine the entire process.
Mohammed Ismail Yoon owns Zhwandoon TV, a television station based in Kabul. He summed up the situation facing Afghanistan in stark terms.
“The election has no legitimacy,” he said. “It’s lawless, it will not happen nationwide and it is not acceptable for the nation. But there is no other way that is better.”
From an original list of eleven candidates, eight are still standing and there is no clear favourite among them. The three considered to be frontrunners have all served in Mr Karzai’s government but only one is rumoured to have his backing.
That man is Zalmai Rassoul, who spent years living in Europe as a supporter of Afghanistan’s exiled royal family before returning to Kabul and being appointed as foreign minister. After a quiet start to the campaign his public profile has surged of late as the perception grows that he has the president on his side. Despite this, a recent opinion poll showed him trailing far behind his main rivals.
One of them is Abdullah Abdullah, a former member of the Northern Alliance movement that fought the Taliban regime. He finished second in the 2009 election that was plagued by fraud.
The other is Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, a former World Bank technocrat who came a distant fourth in 2009. He has chosen a notorious warlord, Abdul Rashid Dostum, as his pick for first vice president.
There is little to choose between the three favourties on political matters. Most notably, all have vowed to sign a long-term security agreement that would keep a few thousand American troops in the country beyond the end of this year. Their other campaign promises are short on detail but Mr Yoon said policy issues would have no great bearing on the result.
He predicted a candidate’s ethnicity would be the most crucial factor, followed by government influence, financial muscle and media support.
Afghanistan is traditionally ruled by a Pashtun such as Mr Karzai, Mr Rassoul and Mr Ahmadzai. Mr Abdullah has mixed parentage but is regarded as a Tajik because of his political history - a potentially key obstacle to victory.
Much of the insurgency is already fuelled by a belief that former Northern Alliance members have monopolised power here since 2001, dominating the government and political opposition while a Pashtun symbolically holds the presidency. Given the backgrounds of the candidates and their running mates, this is unlikely to change significantly whoever wins.
That means the next president and his deputies will face a Taliban movement that has described the election as a “theatrical charade” and threatened anyone involved.
Kabul appears to have been a particular target for the insurgents during the campaign. On March 20 gunmen entered a luxury hotel, killing at least nine people, including a local journalist and four foreigners. Some international election observers left the country in response.
Suicide bombers in the capital have also launched two assaults on offices of the Afghan commission responsible for organising the election and hit the ministry of interior. In another incident, an American aid organisation was attacked - sparking a four-hour gun battle.
Security measures across the country will be extremely tight on Saturday. Preliminary results are due to be announced on April 24 and if no one gains more than 50 per cent of the vote the top two candidates will enter a run-off. They will then hope to win the backing of the six men who have dropped out, pushing the second round decisively in their favour.
That is when the influence of Abdul Rabb Rasul Sayyaf could become important. An outsider in the race for the presidency, he is nevertheless a powerful figure.
Educated at Al Azhar University in Egypt, he led one of the seven largest Afghan sunni mujaheddin parties of the 1980s anti-Soviet resistance. Many of the Arab fighters who joined the struggle fought under him.
Mr Sayyaf became heavily involved in the civil war that followed and is now one of the most outspoken critics of the Taliban, calling for suicide bombers arrested by the government to be hanged in public. His campaign manager, Bashir Ahmad, told The National security should be the first priority for the next president.
“If the head of the government is a strong man [it’s good],” he said. “If he’s a weak man there will be too many problems - he cannot control Kabul.”
Taliban threats will not be the only factor affecting voter turnout on Saturday. Disillusionment with the democratic process may also keep large numbers of people away.
While there have been undoubted improvements in education, health and women’s rights since 2001, Afghanistan has not progressed as hoped. Much of the country is still mired in poverty and the economy is now faltering amid uncertainty about the future.
Mohammed Hassan Yousefi was sitting on a wall in a neighbourhood of west Kabul, enjoying the late afternoon sunshine. Aged 69, he does not intend to take part in the election.
“Before I voted, but this year my heart does not allow me to,” he said.
A former refugee in Iran, Mr Yousefi returned to Afghanistan after the US-led invasion in expectation of a better life. He is now scared of what lies ahead.
“Several times I have voted for Karzai. I kept saying this time it well get better, this time it will get better, but each time the bad luck increased,” he said.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
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Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
