For many observers of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, low-cost drones represent the terrifying future of war, where nothing is safe from all-seeing swarms of flying machines or underwater drones that can sink warships.
But defence industry and government experts tell The National that drones are the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how armies will fight in the future.
Analysts are hard at work trying to imagine how warfare might be conducted as far ahead as the 2040s, by rethinking everything from weapons to military doctrine.
“We're thinking about the 2040-plus threat environment. And we'll find the technologies and capabilities that are needed to be able to provide the necessary capability to meet those threats,” says John Stocker, who works on the Future Combat Air System, a next-generation fighter jet project known as the Tempest being developed by the UK's BAE Systems and partners in Italy, Sweden and Japan.
Drones will play a central role in future conflict – in the case of the Tempest they will be controlled by the jet acting as a kind of mothership.
The US, Nato and China are working not only on drones that are bigger, faster, smarter and more heavily armed than those seen today, but also on a series of military systems for land, sea and air that will work in tandem.
Each element in this new war will be a “system of systems”, part of a network assisted by artificial intelligence.
No one weapon – be it a type of drone, a stealth fighter or an unmanned tank – will be game-changing. The emphasis instead is on high-tech, instantaneous co-ordination on everything from alerting the network to new threats to flagging logistical problems as they happen.
AI will help sift through vast amounts of intelligence data sent from these drones, thousands of them, as well as from manned systems that have sensors to track targets across hundreds of kilometres.
In the West, this is sometimes called data-centric warfare, while China has a similar doctrine whose title has been translated as “intelligentised warfare”.
New technology such as quantum computing will be needed to make sense of so much data, which will be shared through encrypted communication channels.
Mr Stocker says systems like the Tempest could be upgraded by software downloads, like an iPhone, where operating systems would be compatible with many types of weapons, a concept known as the “combat cloud”.
William Nelson, deputy to the commanding general of the US Army Futures Command, a 17,000-strong branch of the US military focused on modernising the force for 2030 and beyond, told The National that planners needed to think “over the horizon”.
“Developing capabilities that are forward focused and designed to quickly and adaptively learn and change at the pace of an evolving battlefield is absolutely critical to future war-winning readiness,” he said.
Drones, and the buzz around them in defence circles, are just aspects of this.
“Understanding where unmanned aerial vehicle technology is headed drives an approach today that ensures we are prepared for a wide range of possible future threats,” Mr Nelson said.
Drones of mass destruction
The vision of long-range, autonomous fighter drones is a far cry from the armed quadcopters fielded by terrorist groups today, or even Iran’s most advanced explosive-filled drones like the Shahed 101, one of which is suspected to have been used by an Iraqi militia in the attack that killed three US soldiers at a base in Jordan last month.
The threat posed by low-cost drones has spurred a small industry dedicated to countering them, including innovations like lasers mounted on armoured vehicles and special radars with 360-degree coverage to detect the small, low-flying craft.
Fast forward to the 2040s, and the focus of planners looks rather different.
Drones will not only attack using explosives or scan battlefields for the enemy: they could also be used in swarms with electronic jamming equipment to overwhelm communications, something the US is also working on.
In the ocean, projects like the US's Ghost Fleet Overlord envision about 150 unmanned ships by the 2040s, and many smaller surface and underwater drones.
Another project, Golden Horde, is testing swarms of “thinking” bombs that can change targets after being released.
AI will help not only commanders to sift the information needed to co-ordinate attacks and prioritise threats and targets but it will assist pilots faced with a rapid flow of data to quickly make decisions.
A crucial part of this focus is what are loosely called sixth-generation fighters like the Tempest, which will have technology beyond the current fifth-generation jets such as stealth fighters including Lockheed's F-35 Lightning.
“AI is absolutely a key part of how we're able to support the pilots operating this type of system to help them not worry about analysing and understanding data, because there'll be vastly more data produced by this system than there ever has been previously. And the human brain is great, but you can only do so much. It's about presenting them with options and allowing them to do that,” Mr Stocker says.
Next generation aircraft will be at the heart of data-centric warfare, with stealth only one aspect. Projects in Europe, Japan and the US envision quantum computing for code cracking; rapidly improving AI, and aircraft, like the US's new B-21, acting as motherships for other drones.
It is difficult to design prototypes because some of the technology is in its infancy.
“It’s part of an integrated system. So it's not just about one aircraft, it looks at options of other types of systems,” Mr Stocker says.
“Uncrewed aircraft, as we refer to them, that could operate alongside the core platform that will help deliver overall capability alongside next generation weapons as well as the networks that will bind that together.
“If you're operating as a system, it has to be able to communicate together,” Mr Stocker says.
Networks, data and war
Data-centric warfare that “fuses” combat power from different units and branches of service is actually a couple of decades in the making, evolving from the 1990s era “network-centric warfare” but with an emphasis on drones and more computing power.
To an extent it can be seen in action in the Red Sea, where US sensors – from satellites to ship radar and airborne radar – work in tandem as a network of threat detectors against Houthi missiles, quickly assigning targets to ships or aircraft that are best placed to respond. The network is bigger than the sum of its parts.
AI as a helping hand for quick thinking will be vital as the US and Nato allies move closer to the ideal of a highly synchronised, networked attack.
Last year, AI-enabled swarms of small drones successfully tracked targets in a joint Australian, British and American exercise, but there are even more ambitious goals.
The US, for example, is planning to field at least 1,000 unmanned aircraft to accompany its F-35s and the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter, a highly classified programme, with both jets acting as motherships to the drones, also linked to its Replicator Initiative to mass produce drones.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Brief scores:
Liverpool 3
Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'
Manchester United 1
Lingard 33'
Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 2 (Mahrez 04', Ake 84')
Leicester City 5 (Vardy 37' pen, 54', 58' pen, Maddison 77', Tielemans 88' pen)
Man of the match: Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
