Are this summer's wildfires a sign of things to come as climate change intensifies?


Daniel Bardsley
  • English
  • Arabic

The out-of-control blazes that killed more than 50 people on the Hawaiian island of Maui are the latest in a string of wildfires to have caused havoc in recent months.

Rhodes and Crete, Greek islands popular with holidaymakers, were badly hit, while the Italian island of Sicily has suffered devastating fires too.

Canada is among the worst-affected countries this summer, with its wildfires in 2023 being more than twice as large as the country has had before.

So are this year’s fires further evidence of the effects of climate change or part of normal variability from year to year?

Which countries have been heavily hit by wildfires this year?

The carbon emissions from Canada’s wildfires this year, at 290 million tonnes by the end of last month, according to figures from the EU’s Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service, are double the previous record of 138 million tonnes set in 2014.

In a statement this month, Copernicus said parts of Canada had been hit by "unprecedented wildfire activity", with nearly all provinces and territories affected.

"Warm and dry weather has created conditions conducive to the record-breaking scale of the 2023 wildfires in Canada. Climate change is making such conditions more likely and increase the chance of a longer fire season," Copernicus said.

There have also been heavy fires in eastern Russia.

Other years have seen outbreaks that claimed more lives, such as Portugal in May and October 2017, coastal areas of Attica in Greece in 2018 and California in the same year, each of which killed more than 100 people.

This year’s wildfires in the Mediterranean, while not leading to large death tolls on the same scale, have nonetheless caused huge economic disruption in key holiday regions, such as Rhodes and Crete.

"If you look at the Mediterranean as a whole, [there have been] other seasons where more area has been burnt but in the number of people evacuated, economic impact, this year is really bad," said Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK.

What global trends in wildfires are evident?

Wildfires are not always destructive, as some landscapes have long undergone periodic burning, which can encourage new growth and help certain seeds to germinate.

About 70 per cent of the area burnt by wildfires globally is in Africa, where blazes affecting savannah and grassland tend not to have the destructive consequences they do elsewhere.

"They rarely kill people or cause major economic and environmental damage," Prof Doerr said.

Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK. Photo: Prof Stefan Doerr
Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK. Photo: Prof Stefan Doerr

There has been a recent decline in the area of land burnt in Africa each year, in part because of the conversion of savannah and grassland to less flammable agricultural land. Farming areas tend not to have periodic burning.

Also, parts of north-west Africa are experiencing fewer savannah fires because the region receives more rainfall as a result of climate change.

Better suppression of fires has also helped to limit the spread in some regions.

As a result of these trends, the total area burnt globally each year has fallen in recent decades, but Prof Doerr cautioned that this trend based on a global average did not give a clear picture of what is happening.

"This totally distracts from the fact we’re having very, very severe fires in many regions of the world right now," Prof Doerr said.

A more meaningful approach than looking at the global wildfire total is to consider what is happening in individual countries, where concerning trends have emerged.

What effect is climate change having on wildfires?

A report released this year by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Taming Wildfires in the Context of Climate Change, said in many parts of the world wildfires were occurring more often and becoming more severe, with the fire season lasting longer.

There are also, the report said, more "extreme wildfires", which are typically large and intense, last a long time and have severe consequences.

"In Australia, the average wildfire frequency has doubled since 1980," the report stated. "In the forests of the western United States, wildfire severity … increased eight-fold between 1985 and 2017."

A key worry is that there is more of what researchers call "fire weather", conditions that are conducive to flames developing and spreading.

These involve long dry periods, hot days, low relative humidity and strong winds, the last of which can fan flames and cause them to spread rapidly, with winds a key factor in the fires affecting Hawaii.

Since 1979, Prof Doerr said, there has been a 27 per cent increase in the number of fire weather days around the world "due to global warming".

"And with the further warming, this trend in rising fire weather will accelerate this trend further," he added. "The really extreme weather is getting worse – flames are higher, flames move faster, the fire is more difficult to control."

In the long term, there will be some areas where wildfires will be less common as a result of desertification, Prof Doerr said.

However, he added that many forest regions of the world would suffer more and increasingly extreme fires in the coming decades, with significant consequences.

Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier

ICC Academy, November 22-28

UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal

ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan 

UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

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25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

The biog

Favourite Emirati dish: Fish machboos

Favourite spice: Cumin

Family: mother, three sisters, three brothers and a two-year-old daughter

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

Ferrari 12Cilindri specs

Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12

Power: 819hp

Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm

Price: From Dh1,700,000

Available: Now

Other ways to buy used products in the UAE

UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.

Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.

Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.

For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.

Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.

At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.

The National in Davos

We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas

Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa

Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong

Rating: 3/5

Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
  • Flexible work arrangements
  • Pension support
  • Mental well-being assistance
  • Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
  • Financial well-being incentives 

The Library: A Catalogue of Wonders
Stuart Kells, Counterpoint Press

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%3Cp%3E%22Whatever%20the%20initial%20intent%2C%20what%20took%20place%20at%20many%20of%20these%20gatherings%20and%20the%3Cbr%3Eway%20in%20which%20they%20developed%20was%20not%20in%20line%20with%20Covid%20guidance%20at%20the%20time.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22Many%20of%20these%20events%20should%20not%20have%20been%20allowed%20to%20happen.%20It%20is%20also%20the%20case%20that%20some%20of%20the%3Cbr%3Emore%20junior%20civil%20servants%20believed%20that%20their%20involvement%20in%20some%20of%20these%20events%20was%20permitted%20given%20the%20attendance%20of%20senior%20leaders.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22The%20senior%20leadership%20at%20the%20centre%2C%20both%20political%20and%20official%2C%20must%20bear%20responsibility%20for%20this%20culture.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20found%20that%20some%20staff%20had%20witnessed%20or%20been%20subjected%20to%20behaviours%20at%20work%20which%20they%20had%20felt%20concerned%20about%20but%20at%20times%20felt%20unable%20to%20raise%20properly.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20was%20made%20aware%20of%20multiple%20examples%20of%20a%20lack%20of%20respect%20and%20poor%20treatment%20of%20security%20and%20cleaning%20staff.%20This%20was%20unacceptable.%22%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.

The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.

“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.

“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”

Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.

Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.

“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.

The specs

Engine: 5.0-litre V8

Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm

Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: L/100km

Price: Dh306,495

On sale: now

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%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

'Munich: The Edge of War'

Director: Christian Schwochow

Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons

Rating: 3/5

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%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ECystic%20fibrosis%20is%20a%20genetic%20disorder%20that%20affects%20the%20lungs%2C%20pancreas%20and%20other%20organs.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIt%20causes%20the%20production%20of%20thick%2C%20sticky%20mucus%20that%20can%20clog%20the%20airways%20and%20lead%20to%20severe%20respiratory%20and%20digestive%20problems.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPatients%20with%20the%20condition%20are%20prone%20to%20lung%20infections%20and%20often%20suffer%20from%20chronic%20coughing%2C%20wheezing%20and%20shortness%20of%20breath.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ELife%20expectancy%20for%20sufferers%20of%20cystic%20fibrosis%20is%20now%20around%2050%20years.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
THREE
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Ibrahim's play list

Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute

Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc

Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar

His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach

Also enjoys listening to Mozart

Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz

Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica 

Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil

Cry Macho

Director: Clint Eastwood

Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam

Rating:**

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

The biog

Name: Samar Frost

Born: Abu Dhabi

Hobbies: Singing, music and socialising with friends

Favourite singer: Adele

Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
ASHES SCHEDULE

First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)

Updated: August 12, 2023, 3:00 AM`