Are this summer's wildfires a sign of things to come as climate change intensifies?


Daniel Bardsley
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The out-of-control blazes that killed more than 50 people on the Hawaiian island of Maui are the latest in a string of wildfires to have caused havoc in recent months.

Rhodes and Crete, Greek islands popular with holidaymakers, were badly hit, while the Italian island of Sicily has suffered devastating fires too.

Canada is among the worst-affected countries this summer, with its wildfires in 2023 being more than twice as large as the country has had before.

So are this year’s fires further evidence of the effects of climate change or part of normal variability from year to year?

Which countries have been heavily hit by wildfires this year?

The carbon emissions from Canada’s wildfires this year, at 290 million tonnes by the end of last month, according to figures from the EU’s Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service, are double the previous record of 138 million tonnes set in 2014.

In a statement this month, Copernicus said parts of Canada had been hit by "unprecedented wildfire activity", with nearly all provinces and territories affected.

"Warm and dry weather has created conditions conducive to the record-breaking scale of the 2023 wildfires in Canada. Climate change is making such conditions more likely and increase the chance of a longer fire season," Copernicus said.

There have also been heavy fires in eastern Russia.

Other years have seen outbreaks that claimed more lives, such as Portugal in May and October 2017, coastal areas of Attica in Greece in 2018 and California in the same year, each of which killed more than 100 people.

This year’s wildfires in the Mediterranean, while not leading to large death tolls on the same scale, have nonetheless caused huge economic disruption in key holiday regions, such as Rhodes and Crete.

"If you look at the Mediterranean as a whole, [there have been] other seasons where more area has been burnt but in the number of people evacuated, economic impact, this year is really bad," said Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK.

What global trends in wildfires are evident?

Wildfires are not always destructive, as some landscapes have long undergone periodic burning, which can encourage new growth and help certain seeds to germinate.

About 70 per cent of the area burnt by wildfires globally is in Africa, where blazes affecting savannah and grassland tend not to have the destructive consequences they do elsewhere.

"They rarely kill people or cause major economic and environmental damage," Prof Doerr said.

Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK. Photo: Prof Stefan Doerr
Stefan Doerr, professor of wildland fire science at Swansea University in the UK. Photo: Prof Stefan Doerr

There has been a recent decline in the area of land burnt in Africa each year, in part because of the conversion of savannah and grassland to less flammable agricultural land. Farming areas tend not to have periodic burning.

Also, parts of north-west Africa are experiencing fewer savannah fires because the region receives more rainfall as a result of climate change.

Better suppression of fires has also helped to limit the spread in some regions.

As a result of these trends, the total area burnt globally each year has fallen in recent decades, but Prof Doerr cautioned that this trend based on a global average did not give a clear picture of what is happening.

"This totally distracts from the fact we’re having very, very severe fires in many regions of the world right now," Prof Doerr said.

A more meaningful approach than looking at the global wildfire total is to consider what is happening in individual countries, where concerning trends have emerged.

What effect is climate change having on wildfires?

A report released this year by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Taming Wildfires in the Context of Climate Change, said in many parts of the world wildfires were occurring more often and becoming more severe, with the fire season lasting longer.

There are also, the report said, more "extreme wildfires", which are typically large and intense, last a long time and have severe consequences.

"In Australia, the average wildfire frequency has doubled since 1980," the report stated. "In the forests of the western United States, wildfire severity … increased eight-fold between 1985 and 2017."

A key worry is that there is more of what researchers call "fire weather", conditions that are conducive to flames developing and spreading.

These involve long dry periods, hot days, low relative humidity and strong winds, the last of which can fan flames and cause them to spread rapidly, with winds a key factor in the fires affecting Hawaii.

Since 1979, Prof Doerr said, there has been a 27 per cent increase in the number of fire weather days around the world "due to global warming".

"And with the further warming, this trend in rising fire weather will accelerate this trend further," he added. "The really extreme weather is getting worse – flames are higher, flames move faster, the fire is more difficult to control."

In the long term, there will be some areas where wildfires will be less common as a result of desertification, Prof Doerr said.

However, he added that many forest regions of the world would suffer more and increasingly extreme fires in the coming decades, with significant consequences.

Types of policy

Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.

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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
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  3. Keep an open mind
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill

Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.

Gulf rugby

Who’s won what so far in 2018/19

Western Clubs Champions League: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Dubai Hurricanes
West Asia Premiership: Bahrain

What’s left

UAE Conference

March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Hurricanes II v Al Ain Amblers, Jebel Ali Dragons II v Dubai Tigers

March 29, final

UAE Premiership

March 22, play-offs: 
Dubai Exiles v Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Hurricanes

March 29, final

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
DMZ facts
  • The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
  • It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
  • The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
  • It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
  • Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
  • Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
  • Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012. 
  • Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Updated: August 12, 2023, 3:00 AM