An ocean circulation system that lowers temperatures in the tropics and keeps some areas in northern latitudes warmer could collapse as a result of climate change, researchers found.
Unless efforts are made to reduce emissions, the research suggests that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) could collapse about the middle of this century – or even as early as 2025.
Written by two researchers in Denmark and published in Nature Communications, the new study predicts "severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region" should the collapse occur.
"The main take-home message is that it may actually happen this century," Prof Susanne Ditlevsen, of the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Copenhagen, told The National.
Without the Amoc, Prof Ditlevsen said that Scandinavia could end up with a climate similar to that of Alaska, which is not warmed by an equivalent circulation in the Pacific Ocean.
In some of the hottest parts of the world, the effect of the loss of the Amoc would be to amplify the existing effects of climate change – with potentially severe implications.
"The tropical areas will heat up because they don’t get rid of the heat," Prof Ditlevsen said. "That means an increase in the tropical areas on top of global warming."
There would also be greater risks of storms, more extreme weather and changed precipitation patterns, all of which would have "huge implications" for how societies are organised, she added.
The analysis is based on a business-as-usual scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, which is "one of the worst scenarios" in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Under this framework, there is a high likelihood that the Amoc could cease to function some time between 2025 and 2095, the new study finds, with the middle ground estimate being about 2050.
"We don’t know how big a reduction in CO2 emissions or greenhouse gas emissions is needed to stop this, but it’s definitely something we would strongly recommend," Prof Ditlevsen said.
"We have to take serious measures to reduce our carbon footprint. We don’t say we have already passed the tipping point. We hope it would be possible to stop it."
The UK’s Met Office states in an online briefing document that Amoc is driven seawater density, which is affected by temperature and salt content.
At the moment, warm water from the tropics flows northwards into the North Atlantic, cools and experiences some evaporation, which, the organisation states, increases the salt content.
This makes the water denser and causes it to sink before it moves southwards, well below the ocean surface, and comes back to the surface.
Scientists had already forecast that climate change would weaken the Amoc because waters would be warmer (because of increased temperatures) and would have lower salt content (because of increased rainfall). These two factors would work to reduce the strength of the circulation. Until the latest study, however, the collapse this century of the Amoc had been thought unlikely.
Gulf stream will 'largely be unaffected'
While the collapse of the Amoc would have significant implications, Prof Ditlevsen said that the Gulf Stream, a major current in the Atlantic, would largely be unaffected.
The Gulf Stream, which is is a much larger circulation pattern than the Amoc and involves greater quantities of water and heat, is largely driven by winds and the rotation of the Earth.
Prof Ditlevsen acknowledged "so many uncertainties in this study", but said that, given the long timescales on which changes to such systems happen, the analysis had produced a "quite narrow" time band during which collapse may take place.
There is limited direct observational data of the Amoc, with records stretching back less than two decades, so the study used information on sea surface temperatures, for which there are more than 150 years’ worth of data, as a proxy for the Amoc.
Over the coming years, as more data becomes available, it should be possible to produce better predictions, Prof Ditlevsen said.
The Amoc has collapsed and reformed several times as a result of ice ages coming and going before human civilisation developed.
The study, "Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation," is also authored by Prof Peter Ditlevsen, of the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
WEST ASIA RUGBY 2017/18 SEASON ROLL OF HONOUR
Western Clubs Champions League
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
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What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
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Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The view from The National
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
