An ocean circulation system that lowers temperatures in the tropics and keeps some areas in northern latitudes warmer could collapse as a result of climate change, researchers found.
Unless efforts are made to reduce emissions, the research suggests that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) could collapse about the middle of this century – or even as early as 2025.
Written by two researchers in Denmark and published in Nature Communications, the new study predicts "severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region" should the collapse occur.
"The main take-home message is that it may actually happen this century," Prof Susanne Ditlevsen, of the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Copenhagen, told The National.
Without the Amoc, Prof Ditlevsen said that Scandinavia could end up with a climate similar to that of Alaska, which is not warmed by an equivalent circulation in the Pacific Ocean.
In some of the hottest parts of the world, the effect of the loss of the Amoc would be to amplify the existing effects of climate change – with potentially severe implications.
"The tropical areas will heat up because they don’t get rid of the heat," Prof Ditlevsen said. "That means an increase in the tropical areas on top of global warming."
There would also be greater risks of storms, more extreme weather and changed precipitation patterns, all of which would have "huge implications" for how societies are organised, she added.
The analysis is based on a business-as-usual scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, which is "one of the worst scenarios" in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Under this framework, there is a high likelihood that the Amoc could cease to function some time between 2025 and 2095, the new study finds, with the middle ground estimate being about 2050.
"We don’t know how big a reduction in CO2 emissions or greenhouse gas emissions is needed to stop this, but it’s definitely something we would strongly recommend," Prof Ditlevsen said.
"We have to take serious measures to reduce our carbon footprint. We don’t say we have already passed the tipping point. We hope it would be possible to stop it."
The UK’s Met Office states in an online briefing document that Amoc is driven seawater density, which is affected by temperature and salt content.
At the moment, warm water from the tropics flows northwards into the North Atlantic, cools and experiences some evaporation, which, the organisation states, increases the salt content.
This makes the water denser and causes it to sink before it moves southwards, well below the ocean surface, and comes back to the surface.
Scientists had already forecast that climate change would weaken the Amoc because waters would be warmer (because of increased temperatures) and would have lower salt content (because of increased rainfall). These two factors would work to reduce the strength of the circulation. Until the latest study, however, the collapse this century of the Amoc had been thought unlikely.
Gulf stream will 'largely be unaffected'
While the collapse of the Amoc would have significant implications, Prof Ditlevsen said that the Gulf Stream, a major current in the Atlantic, would largely be unaffected.
The Gulf Stream, which is is a much larger circulation pattern than the Amoc and involves greater quantities of water and heat, is largely driven by winds and the rotation of the Earth.
Prof Ditlevsen acknowledged "so many uncertainties in this study", but said that, given the long timescales on which changes to such systems happen, the analysis had produced a "quite narrow" time band during which collapse may take place.
There is limited direct observational data of the Amoc, with records stretching back less than two decades, so the study used information on sea surface temperatures, for which there are more than 150 years’ worth of data, as a proxy for the Amoc.
Over the coming years, as more data becomes available, it should be possible to produce better predictions, Prof Ditlevsen said.
The Amoc has collapsed and reformed several times as a result of ice ages coming and going before human civilisation developed.
The study, "Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation," is also authored by Prof Peter Ditlevsen, of the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Key developments in maritime dispute
2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.
2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus
2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.
2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai,
HBKU Press
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The five pillars of Islam
Classification from Tour de France after Stage 17
1. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 73:27:26"
2. Rigoberto Uran (Colombia / Cannondale-Drapac) 27"
3. Romain Bardet (France / AG2R La Mondiale)
4. Fabio Aru (Italy / Astana Pro Team) 53"
5. Mikel Landa (Spain / Team Sky) 1:24"
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
more from Janine di Giovanni
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Naga
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
The stats: 2017 Jaguar XJ
Price, base / as tested Dh326,700 / Dh342,700
Engine 3.0L V6
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 340hp @ 6,000pm
Torque 450Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.1L / 100km
