Talks on climate and conflict at the Cop28 summit in Dubai could give a voice to fragile countries that feel “left behind”, an activist from Sudan has said.
Summit chiefs have chosen “relief, recovery and peace” as one of the themes for the fourth day of Cop28, which opens on November 30.
The discussions will highlight the impact of climate change on crisis-hit countries where floods, drought and scarce resources can add fuel to the fire and where bringing in money can be difficult.
Sudan, for example, which has endured weeks of bloody fighting between the army and paramilitary, is also regarded as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries.
Nisreen Elsaim, a Sudanese climate activist and former chairwoman of a youth advisory group to the UN secretary general, described her background as the “perfect fit” for a discussion on climate and conflict.
She said at talks in Bonn, Germany, that are preparing the ground for Cop28 in the UAE, that the agenda on climate change, peace and security should “grow bigger and bigger”.
“I am actually quite happy to see peace as part of the thematic days of Cop this year, because it wasn’t in the previous Cops,” she said.
“My recommendation would be that this day tries to bring the people who are already left behind a little bit forward, and make them a little bit able to communicate and access the world instead of being in an isolated island.”
The peace agenda will be grouped alongside talks on health on day four of Cop28, organisers have said.
Dane McQueen, Cop28’s director of programmes and partnerships, said countries in crisis had reported struggling to get hold of finance, as donors look to mobilise trillions of dollars to fund global climate action.
Humanitarian groups have felt overwhelmed by the volume of global crises, and other providers of climate finance may be unable or unwilling to send money to conflict-hit countries, he said.
“What we want to do with the next six months and at Cop28 is start presenting some options and see what people feel comfortable with given their own mandates, given their own budgets,” Mr McQueen said.
Negotiators are “looking for some kind of agreement, some kind of initial consensus” on how the flow of money can be improved, with food and water a particular focus, he said.
Summit organisers also hope to take forward a $3.1 billion initiative by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to set up early warning systems around the world for people facing climate-related disasters.
Scientists say developing countries will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming, with impacts projected to be more severe if the goal of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C is missed.
Ms Elsaim said climate and conflict could be “back-to-back problems” with global warming causing insecurity and fragile states in turn suffering more from higher temperatures.
“Climate change sometimes contributes and makes conflicts happen, especially conflicts over natural resources,” she said, echoing a concern voiced by the leaders of Nato and major military powers.
But unstable countries can be even more climate-vulnerable because their infrastructure is poor or non-existent as a result of conflict, and instant humanitarian aid rarely leads to long-term development work, she said.
“For some reason it’s very easy to collect and gather funds and money for humanitarian [aid] that is not sustainable,” she said, but “it’s by far harder to gather the same amount of money for development actions for building the resilience of communities.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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