A British scientist is bidding to lead the UN’s expert panel on climate change, with a vow to listen to developing countries who have had to leave crunch talks to catch flights home from Europe.
Professor Jim Skea told The National that the current trajectory of more than 3°C of global warming would take humanity into a “new kind of world” marked by floods, intense storms and problems with food production.
Poorer countries will face the greatest hazards, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which reports to leaders on the state of scientific knowledge about the planet.
Prof Skea, a co-author of the IPCC’s reports and one of four candidates to be its next chairman, said there could be irreversible losses even if the temperature rise is eventually capped at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The most recent IPCC report in March said it was unequivocal that humans had already caused about 1.1°C of global warming and billions of the world’s people were “highly vulnerable” from climate change.
But talks in Switzerland on finalising the report overran for two days and “many developing countries were not in the room because they were on fixed-price tickets that sent them back home again,” Prof Skea said.
“We need to make sure the IPCC draws on the widest range of people,” he told The National during climate change talks in Bonn, Germany, that are preparing the ground for Cop28 in the UAE.
"The inclusivity issues are a big issue, making sure that countries from all kind of backgrounds contribute."
Prof Skea’s candidacy is backed by the UK government, which has called him a world-renowned expert with an “unparalleled depth and breadth of scientific expertise”.
The other three candidates are Jean-Pascal van Ypersele of Belgium, Thelma Krug of Brazil and Debra Roberts of South Africa, with a new chairperson to be chosen in July to replace South Korea’s Hoesung Lee.
An expert on sustainable energy at Imperial College London, Prof Skea said private finance was needed to mobilise the trillions of dollars that a green overhaul of the world economy is expected to cost.
The UAE has spoken of bringing together an “inclusive mix of players” including the private sector at Cop28. The summit begins at Dubai’s Expo City on November 30.
3°C is really taking us into a new kind of world
Professor Jim Skea
“We’re talking in the trillions a year. Quite frankly, public sector pockets are not deep enough to do that,” Prof Skea said. “It absolutely involves leveraging private sector money.”
Prof Skea has been involved in discussions on the “global stocktake”, a first-of-its-kind health check on global climate policies that will conclude at the summit in the UAE.
The IPCC said in its March report that current policies are not being implemented fast enough and would lead to global warming of about 3.2°C by the end of the century.
The global target, agreed in Paris in 2015, is to keep the rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, although this could involve first overshooting the target then bringing temperatures back down by 2100.
Negotiations have highlighted the fact that the cost of producing solar and wind energy has fallen substantially but that many countries still lack the grid infrastructure to bring in renewables.
The energy squeeze resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has at the same time prompted countries such as Germany to build new gas infrastructure that activists say risks locking in more emissions.
Options under discussion in talks leading up to Cop28 have included a global renewable energy target, backed by Germany, and using carbon prices to shift money away from fossil fuels.
Prof Skea says he expects the Dubai summit to be less of a headline-grabbing milestone and more of a “hard grind of negotiating work” that is “absolutely critical if we're going to move things forward”.
Meanwhile, the effects of climate change such as wildfires, storm activity and damage to corals in the ocean are becoming visible even at the 1.1°C of warming already reached, he said.
While it would be possible to overshoot 1.5°C and try to dial temperatures back by removing CO2 from the atmosphere, scientists warn that some changes such as species loss and rising sea levels will be irreversible.
Another concern is that tactics to remove CO2, such as planting trees or growing crops to make energy, might only worsen environmental problems around land use and food availability.
Prof Skea said modelling is limited on the impact of such an overshoot and said it would be better to stop the temperature rise in its tracks before the worst-case scenario is reached.
“By the time you get to 3°C, you're seeing all kinds of other risks emerging at a much higher level. There's the impacts of flooding, sea level rise, increased storm activity, greater storm intensity,” he said.
“At 3°C, you would start to see negative impacts on crop yields and food production. 1.5°C has enough [impacts]. 2°C would be worse, but 3°C is really taking us into a new kind of kind of world.”
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Day 3, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Just three balls remained in an exhausting day for Sri Lanka’s bowlers when they were afforded some belated cheer. Nuwan Pradeep, unrewarded in 15 overs to that point, let slip a seemingly innocuous delivery down the legside. Babar Azam feathered it behind, and Niroshan Dickwella dived to make a fine catch.
Stat of the day - 2.56 Shan Masood and Sami Aslam are the 16th opening partnership Pakistan have had in Tests in the past five years. That turnover at the top of the order – a new pair every 2.56 Test matches on average – is by far the fastest rate among the leading Test sides. Masood and Aslam put on 114 in their first alliance in Abu Dhabi.
The verdict Even by the normal standards of Test cricket in the UAE, this has been slow going. Pakistan’s run-rate of 2.38 per over is the lowest they have managed in a Test match in this country. With just 14 wickets having fallen in three days so far, it is difficult to see 26 dropping to bring about a result over the next two.
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Company profile
Name: Oulo.com
Founder: Kamal Nazha
Based: Dubai
Founded: 2020
Number of employees: 5
Sector: Technology
Funding: $450,000
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
General%20Classification
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SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
What is Genes in Space?
Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.
It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Test squad: Azhar Ali (captain), Abid Ali, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Imam-ul-Haq, Imran Khan, Iftikhar Ahmed, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Rizwan(wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Shan Masood, Yasir Shah
Twenty20 squad: Babar Azam (captain), Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Imam-ul-Haq, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Hasnain, Mohammad Irfan, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Shadab Khan, Usman Qadir, Wahab Riaz
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
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if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
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Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
