A woman is assisted after another earthquake in Antakya in Hatay province, Turkey. All photos by Reuters

Why are Turkey's earthquake aftershocks so bad and when will they end?



Earthquake aftershocks in Turkey and Syria continue to terrify and harm residents, while causing further damage to shattered towns.

The 6.3-magnitude quake that struck southern Turkey on Monday was technically an aftershock, despite its power.

The magnitude equalled that of an earthquake that struck Christchurch, New Zealand, in February 2011, killing 185 people and causing widespread destruction.

The Christchurch earthquake was later identified as an aftershock of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake in the area in September 2010. Although of a smaller magnitude than the “main shock” earthquake, the February disaster was more destructive.

The first 7.8-magnitude tremor in the disaster that killed more than 46,000 people in southern Turkey and Syria on February 6 was swiftly followed by aftershocks, one of 7.6 magnitude.

What is an aftershock and when will they end?

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, aftershocks are caused when rock around the epicentre of an earthquake becomes unstable, after an earthquake and the tectonic plate continues to settle until no more movement can occur, at least in the near term.

The agency says violent aftershocks after large quakes typically occur within hours of the first earthquake but generally reduce in size and frequency after 10 days.

According to the United States Geological Survey “deep earthquakes (deeper than 30km) are much less likely to be followed by aftershocks than shallow earthquakes”. The February 6 earthquake had a depth of less than 18km, meaning it was classified as shallow. The USGS says that some aftershocks can happen years after the main shock.

Why are aftershocks so dangerous?

Aftershocks are highly disruptive to rescue efforts, with the potential to cause new landslides and building collapses, especially in areas where buildings are already severely damaged and unstable.

While most of the efforts to find survivors have now ended, the threat to rescuers and survivors — over one million people in Turkey are without shelter — is high during such a powerful aftershock.

Power infrastructure can also be damaged, as evidenced by video footage of Monday’s aftershock which caused lights to go out, further hampering aid and recovery efforts.

As well as causing additional death and destruction, aftershocks add to the misery and fear of survivors. One man told The National his family in northern Syria ran into the street more than a week after the initial earthquake when they were awoken in the night by the shaking of their house.

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Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
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Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
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Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ

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Toss: South Africa, elected to bowl first

England (311-8): Stokes 89, Morgan 57, Roy 54, Root 51; Ngidi 3-66

South Africa (207): De Kock 68, Van der Dussen 50; Archer 3-27, Stokes 2-12

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Rating: 3/5

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Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia

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If you go

The flights

Fly direct to London from the UAE with Etihad, Emirates, British Airways or Virgin Atlantic from about Dh2,500 return including taxes. 

The hotel

Rooms at the convenient and art-conscious Andaz London Liverpool Street cost from £167 (Dh800) per night including taxes.

The tour

The Shoreditch Street Art Tour costs from £15 (Dh73) per person for approximately three hours. 

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Brief scores:

QPR 0

Watford 1

Capoue 45' 1

Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

Name: Brendalle Belaza

From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines

Arrived in the UAE: 2007

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus

Favourite photography style: Street photography

Favourite book: Harry Potter

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Price, base / as tested Dh57,000

Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine

Transmission Six-speed gearbox

Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm

Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km

Updated: February 21, 2023, 9:27 AM