On February 3, US General Mark Milley — the highest-ranking officer in the US military — issued a warning that Ukraine would be over-run in 72 hours in the event of a Russian invasion.
The US had strong intelligence on Russia’s intentions, but some of Gen Milley’s prediction was informed by Pentagon-sponsored war games, many of which he had been involved in during the run-up to war.
Some of these 'games' are expensive computer simulations. However, others are literally games, played with dice, playing boards and counters, sometimes augmented by computers and expert adjudicators, to identify weaknesses in future conflicts and train officers.
In the past 200 years, some of these war games have helped change the fate of nations, from the fall of France in the Second World War to the 1991 Gulf War and quite possibly, the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The origins of war games
The practice goes back to the early 19th century and the work of a Prussian officer, Lieutenant Georg von Reiswitz, who convinced his seniors that war could be re-created on a map, using red and blue counters for opposing forces, rules and dice.
“War games are well-understood models that integrate terrain, forces, weapons, space and time, and they are invaluable to turn knowledge into understanding,” says John Curry, a senior lecturer at Bath University, specialising in games development, who has worked with the UK Ministry of Defence and the Pentagon on war-gaming.
“Operational analysis gives us clear guidelines on rates of advance, daily casualties, the effectiveness of armour in towns,” he says, referring to analysis that models these aspects of war using historical and contemporary data.
That data can then become the basis of a game.
Cheaper than holding full-scale military exercises, war-gaming soon became commonplace by the turn of the 20th century in officer-training schools across Europe, the US and Japan, where the practice was introduced by German advisers.
War games have sometimes been spookily accurate in predicting outcomes but for many, their main role is not prediction, but training.
“There is a strong interest from the military to use war-gaming as part of their curriculum due to both cost and flexibility,” says David Freer, chief executive of commercial war-gaming company, Wargame Design Studio.
Mr Freer’s company produces games designed by the late John Tiller, who worked on 20 gaming and simulation projects for the US Air Force and Navy.
“The ability to use it as a learning tool, as well as putting students into interactive roles that can be networked and repeated, are all positives,” Mr Freer says.
Mr Freer’s work is at the point where the military use of war-gaming and the civilian hobby side of the pursuit overlap.
This overlap came to light with striking speed in 1990, when Saddam Hussein’s army invaded Kuwait.
On August 2, 1990, former Pentagon employee Mark Herman was pulled away from his day job —designing war games — to help planners understand the crisis.
Herman had designed a detailed game called Gulf Strike, which provided a rough, but ready-made recreation of US, Saudi Arabian and Iraqi forces in the Middle East.
Defence department staff hurriedly modified the game using classified information and through August, used Gulf Strike to plan the war.
By August 3, initial games suggested that Saddam Hussein had next to no options for victory, although a powerful computer simulation, TACWAR, would assist with the finer details of planning.
Predicting the future
The Prussian mastery of the games would carry over to the German army of the interwar years and later, Hitler’s military.
The Nazis used it to terrifying effect planning the invasion of France, holding multiple “map exercises” using counters before the invasion.
But like any activity that can influence the course of a war, the information war games produces might not be listened to by policymakers.
The Nazis’ experience with war-gaming illustrated the latter issue when they invaded Russia in 1941.
German war games highlighted a major flaw in the Nazis’ logistical capability: getting supplies for a four million-strong invasion force deep within Russia.
Eager to keep Hitler happy, senior German commanders simply ignored the game results, with disastrous consequences.
Twenty-three years later, the US conducted a war game with dozens of participants working through the Vietnam crisis.
That game, Sigma II-64, predicted that heavy US bombing of Communists in Vietnam would not guarantee victory.
The game showed that a large US ground force would be needed, which could spark American public opposition to the war — eventualities that came to pass.
Peter Perla, a war-game designer at the Centre for Naval Analysis and author of The Art of Wargaming: A guide for professionals and hobbyists stresses the problem here is the “openness of decision-makers to taking aboard the insights provided by the games, not merely their overall results, and using them to inform, rather than dictate, their subsequent decisions.”
This process has worked spectacularly in the past: in around 300 war games before the Second World War, the US Naval War College helped inform the future size, capabilities and strategies needed in a major war.
US Admiral Chester Nimitz would later say the games were essential for planning victory against Japan.
“Because war games often look at future possibilities, they can sometimes prove prescient,” Mr Perla says.
“The problem, of course, is that what gets reported are those occasions when a game got something right. Less reported are those occasions when they got it wrong. What tends to be forgotten, for example, is that a lot of the Naval War College interwar games ‘predicted’ things that did not occur in the war,” he says.
Milan Vego, a professor at the US Naval War College, also cautions that games should not be seen as a crystal ball.
“The Germans used the games to familiarise the players with a future theatre of conflict. But more important for them was to have a number of scenarios and the idea was that the more scenarios you play, some of them will resemble a real situation,” he says.
“You cannot predict, nobody knows what will happen.”
Mr Perla says that the games are useful guides to what might happen in real conflict.
“My simple bottom line is that war games do not predict, but war-gamers do. By which I mean that a war game can contribute to the predictive capability of those who participate and study the problem it addresses,” he says.
War-gaming Ukraine
The idea that war games are not for prediction may go some way to explaining why US-sponsored war games have frequently shown former Soviet states suffering swift defeat against Vladimir Putin's Russia, as Gen Milley feared.
Before the war, several games, some classified, others reported in the media, saw Ukraine and Baltic states quickly overrun by Russian forces, even with Nato units in place.
Sebastian Bae, a colleague of Mr Perla, has argued that winning these games is not the point, stressing the importance of playing to understand future conflict dynamics.
For Mr Curry, the games that featured overbearing Russian might are still a problem, and game designers should go back to the drawing board.
“Analysts prior to the war were describing the war in narrative terms [a story] rather than using war games based on known military history. Anyone, including me, who designed a war game prior to the war would have said that the idea of the war being over in 15 days was ridiculous, unless Ukraine suffered a national failure of morale and the state collapsed,” he says.
“The Russian logistics were insufficient to support an opposed advance (ie the Russians have to manoeuvre and shoot at active opposition). Anyone designing a war game would realise these realities before they ever started putting counters on the map,” he says.
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ATP WORLD No 1
2004 Roger Federer
2005 Roger Federer
2006 Roger Federer
2007 Roger Federer
2008 Rafael Nadal
2009 Roger Federer
2010 Rafael Nadal
2011 Novak Djokovic
2012 Novak Djokovic
2013 Rafael Nadal
2014 Novak Djokovic
2015 Novak Djokovic
2016 Andy Murray
2017 Rafael Nadal
2018 Novak Djokovic
2019 Rafael Nadal
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The%20Roundup
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Lee%20Sang-yong%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Ma%20Dong-seok%2C%20Sukku%20Son%2C%20Choi%20Gwi-hwa%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
THREE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENTS
Khalfan Mubarak
The Al Jazira playmaker has for some time been tipped for stardom within UAE football, with Quique Sanchez Flores, his former manager at Al Ahli, once labelling him a “genius”. He was only 17. Now 23, Mubarak has developed into a crafty supplier of chances, evidenced by his seven assists in six league matches this season. Still to display his class at international level, though.
Rayan Yaslam
The Al Ain attacking midfielder has become a regular starter for his club in the past 15 months. Yaslam, 23, is a tidy and intelligent player, technically proficient with an eye for opening up defences. Developed while alongside Abdulrahman in the Al Ain first-team and has progressed well since manager Zoran Mamic’s arrival. However, made his UAE debut only last December.
Ismail Matar
The Al Wahda forward is revered by teammates and a key contributor to the squad. At 35, his best days are behind him, but Matar is incredibly experienced and an example to his colleagues. His ability to cope with tournament football is a concern, though, despite Matar beginning the season well. Not a like-for-like replacement, although the system could be adjusted to suit.
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIG THREE
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
19 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 5 (2011, 14, 15, 18, 19)
French Open: 2 (2016, 21)
US Open: 3 (2011, 15, 18)
Australian Open: 9 (2008, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21)
Prize money: $150m
ROGER FEDERER
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 8 (2003, 04, 05, 06, 07, 09, 12, 17)
French Open: 1 (2009)
US Open: 5 (2004, 05, 06, 07, 08)
Australian Open: 6 (2004, 06, 07, 10, 17, 18)
Prize money: $130m
RAFAEL NADAL
20 grand slam singles titles
Wimbledon: 2 (2008, 10)
French Open: 13 (2005, 06, 07, 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 20)
US Open: 4 (2010, 13, 17, 19)
Australian Open: 1 (2009)
Prize money: $125m
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
UAE%20Warriors%2033%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
DOB: March 13, 1987
Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon
School: ACS in Lebanon
University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City
Nationality: Lebanese
Status: Single
Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Read more about the coronavirus
UAE rugby in numbers
5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons
700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams
Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams
Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season
Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season
The years Ramadan fell in May
McIlroy's recent struggles
Last six stroke-play events (First round score in brackets)
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tied for 4th (74)
The US Masters Tied for 7th (72)
The Players Championship Tied for 35th (73)
US Open Missed the cut (78)
Travellers Championship Tied for 17th (67)
Irish Open Missed the cut (72)
