The war in Ukraine is proof that Russia is a diminishing global power, said a leading geopolitical forecaster speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai.
Russia’s inability to be able to conquer Ukraine and take the city of Kyiv showed it was not the force of old, said George Friedman.
The conflict has also seen a resurgence in the global influence of the US, whose sanctions against Russia have shown it can successfully wage war without firing a bullet.
We’ve discovered Russia is no longer a great power
George Friedman
He also predicted China’s influence would wane over the next 50 years, as its economy was beginning to show signs of trouble.
“We’ve discovered Russia is no longer a great power and its economy is waning,” said Mr Friedman.
“Its military has shown itself to be incapable of adequate planning for the execution of war with a country as weak as Ukraine.
“We also know they couldn’t survive the sanctions imposed on them without stumbling.”
He was speaking during a presentation at the World Government Summit entitled 'The World in 2050: Characteristics of New Rising Powers'.
He predicted that Poland, Japan and Turkey would be among the fastest rising global powers.
Russia’s reputation had already been damaged by events of 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, he said.
Mr Friedman also predicted the next 50 years would continue to see Russia struggling on the geopolitical stage, as the sanctions invoked over the invasion of Ukraine had highlighted how weak the rouble was compared to the dollar.
On the other hand, the US was emerging with its reputation restored over the conflict, he said.
“There has been a re-emergence of American power, not from a military viewpoint but an economic one,” he said.
“The power of the dollar was there for all to see when it was denied to the Russians.
“It crushed Russia’s ability to wage war because wars are expensive.”
He said the US had shown itself to be a global leader as it was very much at the head of a coalition to reduce the capabilities of Russia.
“The US discovered it could wage war without shooting,” said Mr Friedman.
“This was the discovery of a new kind of power, the capacity had always been there but we just didn’t know [how effective it would be].”
He predicted the next 50 years would see a reduction in China’s global influence, because it was about to experience an economic decline similar to that of the US in the 1930s and Japan in the early 1990s, he said.
China was already showing signs of mirroring the economic meltdowns of those economies, which had decades of huge prosperity before collapsing, Mr Friedman said.
“When the US emerged as a global economic power in 1890, it did so by selling low-cost products to the world,” he said.
“It collapsed after about 40 years, just like Japan did in 1991.
“The Chinese economy is 35 per cent made up of real estate and we are seeing Chinese companies starting to default on their debts.”
He said people would laugh at the thought of the Chinese economy crumbling but that was exactly the reaction before it happened to US and Japanese markets of the past.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Aahid Al Khalediah II, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Whistle, Harry Bentley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup - Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alsaied, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mumayaza, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
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Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
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Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
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Your Guide to the Home
- Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
- Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
- Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
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The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
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if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
