Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has now raged for close to one month and many analysts say the conflict could be reaching a turning point, as Russia prepares a new military offensive.
“The Kremlin has so far failed to achieve its original objectives. It has been surprised by the scale and ferocity of Ukrainian resistance,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence said on Saturday.
“Russia has been forced to change its operational approach and is now pursuing a strategy of attrition," the ministry said. A war of attrition means the outcome of the conflict depends on which side can sustain manpower, despite high losses, as both sides wear each other down.
With the exception of the south of the country, where Russia is making gains in the port city of Mariupol and has taken control of the cities of Kherson and Melitopol, Russia's advances have stalled on most fronts.
Russia is poised to occupy most of Ukraine’s coastline, with the large port city of Odesa being one notable obstacle. But Ukraine has also launched a number of successful counterattacks, notably near the city of Mykolaiv.
A current threat for Ukraine is the risk that Russian forces could cut off large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers, trapping them against the Dnieper river, which bisects the country.
"Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper," said Sam Cranny-Evans and Sidharth Kaushal, writing on the UK's Royal United Services Institute website.
Whether or not Russian forces achieve this encirclement, losses on both sides are extremely high and mounting.
Recent US estimates put Russian losses between 2,000 and 7,000 while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had suffered 1,300 dead soldiers by March 12.
The high losses on many fronts raise the question of whether Russia has aimed for too many objectives, rather than aiming to capture Kyiv with one major thrust.
"Napoleon told one of his more sluggish generals, 'if you're going to take Vienna, take Vienna,' Lt Gen Michael Barbero told The National.
"Because if you're gonna go for it, you better have everything, your logistics, your fires, the simultaneity of effects, you better have that all synchronised and lined up," he said, noting that Russia's considerable force might be too dispersed across the country.
Manpower challenge
Russian forces are trying to seize a number of large cities including Kyiv, which has a population of more than three million people, Kharkiv, which had a prewar population of 1.5 million and Odesa, a large port city of nearly one million people.
Experts say that in order to take control of enemy-held terrain, attacking forces need at least three times the number of soldiers as the defender.
In urban operations, this ratio could be higher: an Iraqi force of about 100,000 backed by western air power and advisers took nine months to take control of Mosul, a city defended by as few as 12,000 ISIS fighters, by one estimate.
The force ratio problem is now a challenge for Russia, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
“It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities,” he said on Saturday.
But even with new innovations such as using drones to act as “spotters” for artillery, it is generally thought to be easier to defend an area than to attack, and Ukraine also uses similar tactics.
Tooth to tail
In addition to the so-called “three to one rule," Russia's objectives are complicated by two factors, what analysts call the “tooth to tail ratio” of a force and the fact that Ukraine has mobilised its reserves since February 24, as well as recruiting large numbers of volunteers.
The tooth to tail ratio is the number of soldiers available for front line combat at any given time (“tooth”) versus the "tail," the number of soldiers working in support roles — supplying fuel, food and ammunition, as well as securing rear areas.
The more Russia advances, the more soldiers will be held back to guard supplies and bases.
UK defence attache Mick Smeath recently said that Ukrainian harassment of supply lines was “severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential.”
A study by the McKinsey consultancy on modern militaries, including France, the US, Spain, Japan, South Korea — and Russia, found that on average forces could sustain a combat commitment of 26 per cent of the force.
If this is correct, Russia can send about 40,000 men in combat of the 150,000 men now inside Ukraine. But those front-line forces are also taking extremely heavy casualties.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military has swelled its ranks to about 300,000, outnumbering the Russian invasion force.
Ukraine of course also has the “tooth to tail” ratio to consider, but defenders have shorter supply lines meaning their logistical requirements could be easier to sustain.
“Once they get into the cities, offensive operations in urban terrain are a meat grinder,” retired Lt Gen Michael Barbero said.
“The time the Ukrainians have had to prepare roadblocks, blowing up bridges, preparing kill zones to channel the Russians into, and ambushes, is going to turn it into a more casualty-producing situation. And when you're in urban conflict, the consumption of supplies goes up ten-fold,” he says.
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Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
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In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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Friday Celta Vigo v Villarreal (midnight kick-off UAE)
Saturday Sevilla v Real Sociedad (4pm), Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao (7.15pm), Granada v Barcelona (9.30pm), Osasuna v Real Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Levante v Eibar (4pm), Cadiz v Alaves (7.15pm), Elche v Getafe (9.30pm), Real Valladolid v Valencia (midnight)
Monday Huesca v Real Betis (midnight)
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Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
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- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
UAE SQUAD
Omar Abdulrahman (Al Hilal), Ali Khaseif, Ali Mabkhout, Salem Rashed, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Zayed Al Ameri, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Khalid Essa, Ahmed Barman, Ryan Yaslam, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmin (Al Wasl), Adel Al Hosani, Ali Hassan Saleh, Majed Suroor (Sharjah), Ahmed Khalil, Walid Abbas, Majed Hassan, Ismail Al Hammadi (Shabab Al Ahli), Hassan Al Muharrami, Fahad Al Dhahani (Bani Yas), Mohammed Al Shaker (Ajman)
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What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
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Date of birth: 27 May, 1995
Place of birth: Dubai, UAE
Status: Single
School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar
University: University of Sharjah
Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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