Limiting global temperature rises to even 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be “catastrophic” for coral reefs, scientists say.
Countries have agreed to curb global warming to 2°C, and try to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more extreme floods, storms, heatwaves and damage to crops.
But scientists led by the University of Leeds warn that the climate risk is even worse for coral reefs than set out in a UN assessment in 2018, which warned that 70 to 90 per cent would be lost at 1.5°C of warming.
That assessment, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, also found almost all corals would vanish at 2°C of warming.
The new research has found that more than 90 per cent of tropical coral reefs would suffer frequent “intolerable” heat stress as a result of ocean warming even under the tougher 1.5°C limit.
Places that can maintain suitable temperatures for corals to survive, while the ocean temperatures in surrounding areas rise, are known as “refugia”, and were identified by the researchers as areas projected to suffer severe heat stress less than once in 10 years.
This is about the time it takes for reefs to grow back and be fully functioning.
In recent decades, 84 per cent of tropical reefs have had enough time between heatwaves that cause coral death or bleaching to recover and re-establish, with these refugia found in all 12 coral reef regions across the world.
But at 1.5°C of warming, that will fall to just 0.2 per cent of coral areas, in Polynesia and the “coral triangle” in the western Pacific Ocean, where lower rates of warming and colder water reduce the frequency of ocean heatwaves.
No “refugia” areas will exist with 2°C of warming, the study based on historical data and climate models shows.
“We confirm that warming of 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels will be catastrophic for coral reefs,” they wrote in a paper published in the journal PLoS Climate.
Identifying and protecting refugia and reducing other stresses such as fishing and pollution has been a popular recommendation for managing reefs, the researchers said, but might only be a short-term solution.
Alongside creating protected areas, action to help reefs adapt to higher temperatures and help migration of species might be needed to secure coral reef survival.
“Our finding reinforces the stark reality that there is no safe limit of global warming for coral reefs,” said lead author Adele Dixon, a PhD researcher in the University of Leeds’ School of Biology.
Ms Dixon said that after the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow where countries made some progress towards keeping temperatures to the 1.5°C limit, “our finding shows that 1.5°C is still a substantial amount of warming for the ecosystems on the frontline of climate change”.
“Our work shows that corals worldwide are even more at risk from climate change than we thought at the time of the IPCC special report on 1.5°C," said Piers Foster, professor of climate physics at the university.
“This reinforces the stark reality that there is no safe limit of global warming, and we need to act urgently to save what we can.”
Fight card
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) v Rey Nacionales (PHI)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROM) v Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR)
Catch 74kg
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) v Omar Hussein (JOR)
Strawweight (Female)
Weronika Zygmunt (POL) v Seo Ye-dam (KOR)
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) v Walid Laidi (ALG)
Lightweight
Leandro Martins (BRA) v Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW)
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) v Sofiane Benchohra (ALG)
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR)
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Glen Ranillo (PHI)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Aidan Aguilera (AUS)
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) Sasha Palatnikov (HKG)
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR)
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Spain drain
CONVICTED
Lionel Messi Found guilty in 2016 of of using companies in Belize, Britain, Switzerland and Uruguay to avoid paying €4.1m in taxes on income earned from image rights. Sentenced to 21 months in jail and fined more than €2m. But prison sentence has since been replaced by another fine of €252,000.
Javier Mascherano Accepted one-year suspended sentence in January 2016 for tax fraud after found guilty of failing to pay €1.5m in taxes for 2011 and 2012. Unlike Messi he avoided trial by admitting to tax evasion.
Angel di Maria Argentina and Paris Saint-Germain star Angel di Maria was fined and given a 16-month prison sentence for tax fraud during his time at Real Madrid. But he is unlikely to go to prison as is normal in Spain for first offences for non-violent crimes carrying sentence of less than two years.
SUSPECTED
Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid's star striker, accused of evading €14.7m in taxes, appears in court on Monday. Portuguese star faces four charges of fraud through offshore companies.
Jose Mourinho Manchester United manager accused of evading €3.3m in tax in 2011 and 2012, during time in charge at Real Madrid. But Gestifute, which represents him, says he has already settled matter with Spanish tax authorities.
Samuel Eto'o In November 2016, Spanish prosecutors sought jail sentence of 10 years and fines totalling €18m for Cameroonian, accused of failing to pay €3.9m in taxes during time at Barcelona from 2004 to 2009.
Radamel Falcao Colombian striker Falcao suspected of failing to correctly declare €7.4m of income earned from image rights between 2012 and 2013 while at Atletico Madrid. He has since paid €8.2m to Spanish tax authorities, a sum that includes interest on the original amount.
Jorge Mendes Portuguese super-agent put under official investigation last month by Spanish court investigating alleged tax evasion by Falcao, a client of his. He defended himself, telling closed-door hearing he "never" advised players in tax matters.
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
