Omicron could cause much less severe illness and 80 per cent fewer hospitalisations, according to a new study based on the variant’s surge in South Africa and the latest data from the UK.
The South African study, released on Wednesday, also suggests its very high transmissibility causes cases to peak and decline far more quickly than occurs with waves of the Delta variant.
Its findings have stirred a heated debate within the scientific community as to how badly Omicron will strain healthcare systems around the world.
Many scientists are urging caution on data suggesting it may be less harmful, because the virus is still a building wave in much of the world and the reporting of cases and deaths can lag behind its spread.
They said that even if Omicron causes less severe illness in most people, the sheer number of infections could overwhelm hospitals.
While a study on Monday by scientists at Imperial College London said there was no evidence that Omicron caused less severe illness the country's latest reports threw the findings into question.
The newest report from the university, also released on Wednesday, found that people with Omicron were 15 to 20 per cent less likely to visit the hospital and 40 to 45 per cent less likely to require an overnight stay than those who had been infected with the previous Delta strain.
But it was 10 times more likely than Delta to infect people who had already contracted Covid-19, researchers in Scotland found.
The latest findings from Imperial College London and South Africa’s National Institute of Communicable Diseases join a growing number of studies that paint a more optimistic picture of the latest wave than previous.
Last week, a study by the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases said early findings suggested Omicron was less effective at damaging the lungs compared with prior variants.
The study said Omicron “has gained immune evasion properties whilst compromising on properties associated with replication and pathogenicity [harm]”.
It followed similar findings by the University of Hong Kong, released on December 15, that “Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original Sars-CoV-2, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity”.
But the Hong Kong study authors also said: “By infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic.”
The South African study authors said that while more study was needed, the data from South Africa – whose experience is being watched around the world – told a “positive story” about the variant’s severity.
Drop in Omicron cases
Omicron was first detected in Gauteng, South Africa’s commercial hub and home to one of the continent’s busiest airports.
Cases in the region are falling, as is the percentage of positive tests, Michelle Groome, of the NICD, told a news briefing.
“Really, we feel that this has persisted for over a week and that we are past the peak in Gauteng,” she said.
There had been a “levelling off” in three other provinces – Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga – she said, though cases were increasing elsewhere. Dr Groome said the fall in case numbers could be due, in part, to lower levels of testing during the holiday period.
South Africa has imposed the lowest level of a five-tier system of restrictions, despite a rapid surge in infections. But hospital admissions are being monitored closely.
While these have also risen, they have remained far below the levels seen during previous waves of the pandemic, with deaths also lower than seen in the past and people staying in hospital for shorter periods, the NICD’s Dr Waasila Jassat said, with the caveat that relevant data tended to lag.
Infections in the first four weeks of the fourth coronavirus wave, driven by Omicron, rose well above those seen in the previous three waves, NICD data showed. But the proportion of people admitted to hospital stood at 5.7 per cent, compared with above 13 per cent in previous waves.
The proportion of people admitted to hospital who later died dropped to 5.6 per cent, compared with 19 per cent or above in the first, second or third waves.
Of people who died of Covid-19 in South Africa between November 7 and December 18, 87 per cent were unvaccinated or had received only one dose, the data showed.
The South African study used data from four sources: national Covid-19 case data reported to the NICD, public sector laboratories, one large private-sector lab and genome data for clinical specimens sent to NICD from private and public diagnostic labs across the country.
But the study included several caveats and cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the intrinsic characteristics of Omicron.
“It is difficult to disentangle the relative contribution of high levels of previous population immunity versus intrinsic lower virulence to the observed lower disease severity,” they wrote.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia, described the South African study as important. He said it was the first properly conducted study to appear in pre-print form on the relative severity of the Omicron and Delta variants.
He said its main weakness was that it compared Omicron data from one period with Delta data from an earlier period.
“Even though cases of Omicron were less likely to end up in hospital than cases of Delta, it is not possible to say whether this is due to inherent differences in virulence or whether this is due to higher population immunity in November compared to earlier in the year,” he said.
“To a certain extent, this does not matter to the patient who only cares that they won’t get very sick. But it is important to know to enable improved understanding of the likely pressures on health services.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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If%20you%20go
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bundesliga results
Mainz 0 Augsburg 1 (Niederlechner 1')
Schalke 1 (Caligiuri pen 51') Bayer Leverkusen 1 (Miranda og 81')
The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Classification from Tour de France after Stage 17
1. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 73:27:26"
2. Rigoberto Uran (Colombia / Cannondale-Drapac) 27"
3. Romain Bardet (France / AG2R La Mondiale)
4. Fabio Aru (Italy / Astana Pro Team) 53"
5. Mikel Landa (Spain / Team Sky) 1:24"
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
A4 35 TFSI
Engine: 2.0-litre, four-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed S-tronic automatic
Power: 150bhp
Torque: 270Nm
Price: Dh150,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
A4 S4 TDI
Engine: 3.0-litre V6 turbo diesel
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 350bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh165,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
HAJJAN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Abu%20Bakr%20Shawky%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3EStarring%3A%20Omar%20Alatawi%2C%20Tulin%20Essam%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al-Hasawi%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
