A stubborn Hungary, a new-look Poland and a French president with an eye on his legacy are tipped to dominate Europe's corridors of power in 2024, at a time of election mayhem and waning German influence.
Power will be shifting at EU, G7 and Nato levels during a year of enormous challenges, including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, economic strife and record-high illegal migration.
With the EU's traditional Franco-German "engine" spluttering with divisions between Paris and Berlin on issues from the Middle East to air defence, the bloc's geopolitical influence is up for grabs.
A messy EU election could leave a power vacuum that black sheep Hungary is poised to exploit, leaving Brussels in a state of "damage control".
Italy is captaining the G7 with an eye on curbing migration, an issue also preoccupying Germany's under-fire leadership as the bloc's centre of gravity shifts from Berlin to newly EU-friendly Warsaw.
In a bumper election year in which billions will go to the polls worldwide, here is our guide to the key players guiding Europe through tumultuous times in 2024.
Black sheep rules
Hungary’s nationalist government relishes its role as EU troublemaker-in-chief, often wielding its veto power to force concessions from the other 26 members of the bloc.
It raises some alarm, then, that Hungary is due to take on the EU’s rotating presidency for the second half of 2024, with Belgium steering the ship from January until June.
The presidency chairs meetings, sets EU priorities and is supposed to look for consensus on difficult issues such as the Israel-Gaza war, on which leaders struggled to agree on a statement.
The current president, Belgian politician Charles Michel, announced on January 6 he would run in the European election, raising the possibility of an early departure and of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban playing a key role by default.
The French-German relationship is broken at leadership level
Rym Momtaz
Some doubt whether Hungary, which disdains Brussels and has been stripped of EU funds for undermining the rule of law, can credibly play the role of honest broker expected of the presidency.
Nonetheless, vague talk of skipping Hungary’s turn has gone nowhere so far and Mr Orban has promised that the country will “assume an intermediary role” in the aftermath of EU elections.
A key issue will be Ukraine. Hungary opposes sending arms, has blocked funds, watered down sanctions on Russia and is reluctant to bring Ukraine closer to EU membership.
EU countries may disagree on a lot of things, but one thing most of them agree on is that they do not want Mr Orban as a leader, said Gesine Weber, a research analyst and fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank.
Someone with a technocratic background like former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi is likely to be chosen in the coming weeks to steer the EU until what would have been the end of Mr Michel’s mandate.
“It’ll be a decision driven by the need for damage control more than an enthusiastic choice for a new leader,” Ms Weber said.
France in consolidation mode
With Mr Michel soon gone, and powerful EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen giving little indication about whether she wants to stay in her job, all eyes are on the historic Franco-German relationship.
A powerful speaker, French President Emmanuel Macron has come across as Europe’s de facto leader in comparison with the more low-profile German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“The EU has become pretty French in the past years,” Ms Weber said.
While Mr Macron likes to give long monologues wading into tricky geopolitical waters, the softly-spoken Mr Scholz tends to stick to short, familiar soundbites, when he chips in at all. His camera-friendly deputy Robert Habeck is often left to defend the government’s record.
Mr Scholz's quiet style was seen as a virtue when he ran for election in 2021, promising to maintain Angela Merkel’s steady hand at the wheel, and admirers say his careful manner makes him the right man for serious times. His critics accuse him of weakness, arrogance and going missing in action.
The French-German relationship is broken at leadership level, said Rym Momtaz, consultant research fellow for European foreign policy and security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Views in Paris and Berlin on the future of Europe diverge on a number of points, including highly-sensitive ones like defence.
A German proposal last year to strengthen air defence, including with purchases from the US or Israel, was coolly received in Paris, which would have preferred its own air defence systems, the Mistral, to be prioritised.
Emmanuel Macron, France's president, Stevo Pendarovski, North Macedonia's president, Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, Jonas Gahr Store, Norway's prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece's prime minister, Andrzej Duda, Poland's president, and Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister. Bloomberg
These disagreements are likely to persist in 2024, although Mr Scholz and Mr Macron do their best to maintain a friendly facade. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, the French president lauded Franco-German efficiency at responding together to the Covid-19 crisis.
In his first speech in six years in the high-profile Swiss event, Mr Macron said that Europe was facing important challenges as the US and China invest massively in their industry and wars continue in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Europe must invest to provide its middle class with well-paying jobs and keep it happy, said Mr Macron, in an apparent hint at the rise of the far-right, which is far ahead of his political family in polls in France before the European election.
Europe must also not let Russia win in Ukraine, whatever the US November presidential election result is, he said, in a reference to the possible re-election of Donald Trump.
“We must do everything to hold the world together and not give in to divisions,” Mr Macron said.
Yet EU influence as a bloc on the escalating conflict across the Mediterranean in Gaza remains limited due to internal divisions.
Some countries, including Germany, have rallied behind Israel while others, such as Ireland and Spain, have expressed more concern for potential Israeli human rights offences against Palestinians.
France is in a unique position as it tries to support both Israel’s security interests and international law, Ms Momtaz told The National.
Paris recently brokered a deal with Qatar to deliver medicine to Hamas-held hostages in Gaza as well as humanitarian aid to the civilian population.
French diplomacy has so far had little impact on Israel – a fact that Mr Macron himself admitted this week.
This reflects a decrease in western influence on Israel rather than a lack of French efforts, Ms Momtaz said.
“Big western countries like the US, France and the UK clearly have less sway than before,” she said.
With more than three years left in office, Mr Macron is conscious about wanting to build a legacy and is likely to be inclined to keep a leadership role on international affairs, Ms Momtaz added.
Many are also pointing at Poland taking a more central role in European leadership since the election last month of EU-friendly Donald Tusk to the premiership.
“The centre of gravity in Europe might become more balanced between France, Germany and Poland,” Ms Webersaid.
German under par
Unlike Mr Macron, Mr Scholz stayed away from Davos.
It is not that Mr Scholz’s schedule is unusually busy – three of his four official outings this week involve watching handball, meeting carnival jesters and paying tribute to late football star Franz Beckenbauer. Behind the scenes he has met his cabinet and held a phone call with US President Joe Biden.
Although Mr Scholz’s team played down his absence from Davos, it is certainly not the first time they have had to field suggestions that the chancellor should raise his voice.
Norbert Roettgen, a senior opposition expert on foreign policy, similarly bemoaned what he called a lack of leadership from Mr Scholz in his dealings with France and Hungary.
“Germany must take the initiative with Poland and France to reorganise security in Europe,” he said last weekend.
“We have to show the door to Orban, who is abolishing democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and is an ally of Putin. But instead of leading, Scholz is silent.”
Although not up for re-election himself until 2025, Mr Scholz could still feel voter heat this year as three states go to the polls in the former communist east, the heartland of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Battling to avoid the historic dam breach of an AfD win in the regional polls, Mr Scholz has toughened his stance on illegal migration, with an overstretched asylum system blamed in part for the far-right’s poll bounce.
Polling in 11 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations found Germany to be the only one where immigration was the top voter concern, above climate change and the war in Ukraine.
Analysts said a jump in migrant arrivals “may have triggered memories of 2015”, when hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Syria claimed asylum in Germany.
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Moment of the day Lahiru Gamage, the Sri Lanka pace bowler, has had to play a lot of cricket to earn a shot at the top level. The 29-year-old debutant first played a first-class game 11 years ago. His first Test wicket was one to savour, bowling Pakistan opener Shan Masood through the gate. It set the rot in motion for Pakistan’s batting.
Stat of the day – 73 Haris Sohail took 73 balls to hit a boundary. Which is a peculiar quirk, given the aggressive intent he showed from the off. Pakistan’s batsmen were implored to attack Rangana Herath after their implosion against his left-arm spin in Abu Dhabi. Haris did his best to oblige, smacking the second ball he faced for a huge straight six.
The verdict One year ago, when Pakistan played their first day-night Test at this ground, they held a 222-run lead over West Indies on first innings. The away side still pushed their hosts relatively close on the final night. With the opposite almost exactly the case this time around, Pakistan still have to hope they can salvage a win from somewhere.
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
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Cutting red tape on import and export of food
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Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
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If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
(All games 4-3pm kick UAE time) Bayern Munich v Augsburg, Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen, Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin, Wolfsburg v Mainz , Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg, Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Cologne v Schalke , Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach, Stuttgart v Arminia Bielefeld
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
