Rainfall in the UAE is set to increase as a result of climate change, a study has revealed.
Scientists at the National Centre of Meteorology have discovered that annual precipitation is expected to rise by up to 30 per cent over much of the country during the course of this century.
Heavy rainfall events are expected to happen more often and there will likely be a fall in the number of dry periods, with farmers possibly set to benefit from the new weather.
The findings come as the world struggles to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the threshold above which scientists say much more severe effects of climate change are expected to result.
The study analysed data in three phases: 2021-2050 (near future); 2051-2080 (mid future) and 2080-2100 (far future) using historical data between 1985 to 2014 as a baseline.
We know globally there’s an increase in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events, which is to be expected, because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture
Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment,
part of the London School of Economics
Scientists considered the possible outcomes under a variety of “shared economic pathways" (SSPs), which involve different levels of greenhouse emissions, with these depending upon how the world develops in future.
The model is used widely among climate researchers to carry out detailed analysis on future challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
The study found that, on average, the annual precipitation over the most of the UAE is expected to increase by about 15 per cent to 30 per cent during the current century under each phase, compared with the historical period.
Researchers suggested that extreme rainfall is expected to increase by up to 30 per cent, particularly between 2051 and 2080.
Globally, an average increase in rainfall is being experienced as a result of climate change and is expected to continue, because a warmer atmosphere is able to hold more moisture.
However, researchers have said there were particular factors affecting the Middle East, notably the northward movement of the intertropical convergence zone, a band of low pressure near the equator known to sailors as the doldrums.
Trade winds, which blow towards the equator from both the northern and southern hemispheres, converge in this zone, which is often linked to heavy rain.
Scientists said that the general pattern was that the added moisture in the atmosphere “results in more extreme precipitation events".
The study, which looked at the Arabian peninsula as a whole, with a particular focus on the UAE, was released earlier this month in Scientific Reports, and published by the scientific journal, Nature.
Modelling indicates that there will be an increase in “heavy precipitation days" in which there is at least 10mm of rainfall, in all emissions scenarios.
“The findings of the study indicate that the Arabian Peninsula may witness an increase in extreme precipitation events," the study said.
“This suggests that there may be a significant increase in precipitation on wet days across most of the land area towards the end of the century."
The UAE may experience a reduction in the number of consecutive dry days as a result of the increase in rainfall, according to the researchers.
“Changes in the precipitation indices under a warming scenario relative to the baseline period indicate progressive wetting across the UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events," they said.
The effects of the changes will not all be negative, with the researchers saying that the changes in rainfall “will likely contribute to increased agricultural productivity".
Changes in rainfall are expected to be “particularly intense" in the second half of the century under a range of emissions scenarios.
UAE climate researcher Dr Diana Francis, an assistant professor and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab at Khalifa University, who was not connected to the NCM study, said that over the last two decades a trend for increased rainfall in the UAE had already been seen.
She said this was expected to continue and added that it was “most likely" that there would be an increase in extreme rainfall events in the country because of the greater energy levels in the atmosphere.
In addition, the UAE is set to experience an increase in the levels of humidity as a result of climate change.
“This is also expected because for each 1°C increase in temperature in the atmosphere, an additional seven per cent of water vapour can be held in the same volume," she said.
However, Dr Francis cautioned that there remained “a lot of limitations and uncertainties" with climate models, saying that they did not, for example, take account of how tiny particles called aerosols interact with clouds.
She also highlighted some of her previous research, reported in The National, that indicated the carbon dioxide levels used in some models may have been overestimated, something that she said “could lead to biases when looking into temperatures and rainfall".
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, part of the London School of Economics, said that forecasts of increased rainfall in the UAE were “consistent" with the worldwide picture.
“We know globally there’s an increase in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events, which is to be expected, because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. When it rains, it rains harder," he said.
Mr Ward said that heavier rainfall events did not mean that areas would be shielded from droughts, as heavy rainfall events were not the same as steady levels of rainfall through the year.
He also warned that any benefits that higher levels of rainfall did bring would have to be weighed against other effects of climate change, such as increased temperatures and a rise in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Afghanistan fixtures
- v Australia, today
- v Sri Lanka, Tuesday
- v New Zealand, Saturday,
- v South Africa, June 15
- v England, June 18
- v India, June 22
- v Bangladesh, June 24
- v Pakistan, June 29
- v West Indies, July 4
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
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THE BIO
Mr Al Qassimi is 37 and lives in Dubai
He is a keen drummer and loves gardening
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Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
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Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Teams
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
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Fixtures
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Oman
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Results
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mezmar, Adam McLean (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: AF Ajwad, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Gold Silver, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
4pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m; Winner: Atrash, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez.
4.30pm: Gulf Cup Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Momtaz, Saif Al Balushi, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Al Mushtashar, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
