Before the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war on October 7, much of the Middle East was moving in the direction of de-escalation and normalisation. Saudi Arabia and Iran signed their Chinese-brokered normalisation pact in March, Syria was readmitted into the Arab League, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan worked to improve relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the US was encouraging normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In addition, Washington was helping to move forward several regional co-operation platforms, such as the I2U2 grouping (including India, Israel, the UAE and US), the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor project and the Negev Forum.
To be sure, there were countervailing forces. The civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen continued to simmer, unresolved. More worryingly, a new civil war erupted in Sudan. And difficult economic conditions in energy-importing countries exacerbated by high debt burdens, high interest rates, high inflation and high food prices had a major impact on Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and others. Lebanon had already tipped into full economic collapse, and its political and economic paralysis continued through 2023. In Israel, the most right-wing government in that country’s history assumed power as the year commenced.
The Hamas attack of October 7, and the massive and continuing Israeli war on Gaza that it unleashed, has pitched the region in a dangerous and much more escalatory direction. The attack took the highest toll in Israel’s modern history, and the ongoing retaliation in Gaza has resulted in the worst loss of life and displacement of Palestinians since the Nakba of 1948. Public opinion throughout the region has rapidly polarised, with Arab and Muslim opinion championing sympathy for Palestinians and hostility toward Israel’s actions, and Israeli public opinion moving further to the right.
The conflict has also escalated beyond Palestine and Israel. The US barely managed to dissuade Israel from a large-scale attack on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon early in the conflict, and exchange of fire across the Lebanon-Israel border has been the highest since 2006. The risk of a major Israel-Hezbollah war in 2024 remains high.
Other Iranian allies or proxies in the region have also stepped up their engagement. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria have mounted over 100 attacks on American troops, and the Americans have retaliated in kind. The Houthis have launched attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, which have been largely ineffective but have nonetheless disrupted shipping in the Red Sea. The US has hit back at militias in Iraq and Syria, but so far has chosen not to hit back on Yemeni soil.
The regional escalation has been significant, but it is important to note that it is also limited in intensity and has remained well short of major conflict. The previous detente between several GCC states and Iran, as well as American deterrent power – symbolised by two US carrier groups moving into the Eastern Mediterranean – have helped keep regional escalation relatively contained, at least so far. So far as well, the peace treaties and Abraham Accords that have tied Israel to several Arab countries have held, although relations are clearly more strained than before, and the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks will have to await at least until an ending of the current war.
In 2024, much will depend on how that ending takes shape and what will come after it. If the war ends with a renewed Israeli occupation of Gaza and a ramped-up expansion of settlements in the West Bank, the momentum toward further normalisation with Israel could slow and Arab public opinion would solidify against it. At the same time, the US will face headwinds in its regional relations. Iran and its proxies, as well as other extremist groups, will benefit from this polarisation and gain more adherents and influence. On the other hand, if the war is followed by a robust peace effort, led by the US but including key global and regional players, the Middle East could turn in a much more positive direction, leaving radicals and spoilers on the side-lines.
The prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks will have to await at least until an ending of the current war in Gaza
Indeed, if war is the continuation of politics by other means, Israel and the US are fighting different wars: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is fighting to strengthen Israel’s occupation and the one-state apartheid-like reality; the US is claiming that its end game is a strengthened Palestinian Authority and a revived peace process working toward a two-state solution.
It is also important to note that a majority of Americans do not approve of Biden’s handling of this war, and a majority of young Americans between the ages of 18-29 sympathise more with Palestinians than they do with Israel. How these dynamics will impact US-Israel relations in a US election year and beyond is hard to predict.
Arab countries have important leverage over what comes after this war: a peace process and hope for the Palestinians, or a consolidation of Israel’s long-term occupation. In previous attempts at peace breakthroughs, in the late 1970s and early 1990s, the Gulf countries did not have the influence they have today, nor were they players in relations with Israel. Today, all that is different. The best hope for the Palestinians is a state of their own. The only realistic pathway toward that is a two state solution. The only way to get there is through tough and successful negotiations. Such a political breakthrough would require bold leadership on all sides.
Economically, the Middle East is likely to remain a very uneven domain in 2024. The IMF and World Bank estimate an average Mena growth rate of 3.5 per cent, up from 2 per cent in 2023, but this will belie great income and wealth disparities between the GCC countries at the top, nearby countries like Yemen and Syria at the very bottom and low-income countries like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia and Morocco struggling to contain poverty and unemployment. If the Israel-Hamas war triggers more serious disruptions in the Red Sea or the Gulf, then even the region’s most prosperous states could be impacted by negative ripple effects throughout the region, and indeed the world economy.
Leaders throughout the region should focus on bringing about an urgent end to the Israeli war in Gaza, bringing urgent relief to the suffering people of Gaza and then playing a leading role in launching a robust political and diplomatic process to help transform this worst of wars into an opportunity for change towards peace. In the meantime, they should also endeavour to prevent any major escalation of conflict to other areas, and work with lower-income countries to help their populations weather the socio-economic stresses of current economic conditions.
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
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The bio
Favourite vegetable: Broccoli
Favourite food: Seafood
Favourite thing to cook: Duck l'orange
Favourite book: Give and Take by Adam Grant, one of his professors at University of Pennsylvania
Favourite place to travel: Home in Kuwait.
Favourite place in the UAE: Al Qudra lakes
RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21', 51'
Ferran Torres 67'
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3' (P), 43' (P), 71', 82'
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
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The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Retail gloom
Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.
It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.
The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
Origin
Dan Brown
Doubleday
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company info
Company name: Entrupy
Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist
Based: New York, New York
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
RESULT
Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)
Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Neil Thomson – THE BIO
Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.
Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.
Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.
Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.
Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.
Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
match info
Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')
Liverpool 0
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
