Members of the Wagner group waving flags on the roof of a damaged building in Bakhmut, amid the invasion of Ukraine. AFP
Members of the Wagner group waving flags on the roof of a damaged building in Bakhmut, amid the invasion of Ukraine. AFP
Members of the Wagner group waving flags on the roof of a damaged building in Bakhmut, amid the invasion of Ukraine. AFP
Members of the Wagner group waving flags on the roof of a damaged building in Bakhmut, amid the invasion of Ukraine. AFP

Did AI predict the Wagner rebellion? Meet the experts forecasting future wars


Robert Tollast
  • English
  • Arabic

In April, Conflict Forecast, a project that uses artificial intelligence to predict where outbreaks of violence will occur in the world, noticed a surge in discussion of military activity in Russian media.

About 500 days into the Russia-Ukraine war, levels of media chatter on the conflict were significantly higher than has been normal since the invasion on February 24 last year.

One researcher behind the project said it might have signalled the mutiny by the Wagner paramilitary group, which happened two months later.

Conflict Forecast tracks news events, dividing six million news articles from the past 40 years into economic and security categories to spot historical patterns that showed when countries are on the edge of war.

The AI system, created by professors Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh, showed a surge in Russian discussion of conflict several months before the 2014 invasion of Crimea.

It is just one of several cutting-edge projects using AI to spot the next global crisis, crunching down vast amounts of data that would take teams of analysts months to sift through, from satellite imagery to climate data that could predict conflict over land.

In theory, decision-makers armed with this early warning can act promptly. Generals and politicians can assess options from sanctions to a military response, or increase aid and diplomacy to avert the worst, with months instead of weeks or days to prepare.

Damage at Khartoum's central market during clashes between the Sudanese army and the RSF in April. Reuters
Damage at Khartoum's central market during clashes between the Sudanese army and the RSF in April. Reuters

Stanley McChrystal is a retired general who commanded US forces in Afghanistan and formerly the US Joint Special Operations Command. He is now an advisor at Rhombus Power, a Silicon Valley company that has created Guardian, which it describes as an "artificial Intelligence platform for national and global security."

“All logistics or preparation take time, so the earlier you have high probability or high confidence indicators, you're in a position [to ask] ‘Should I take action?’,” he tells The National.

“The problem is, as we get more and more data, with some clear indications, decision-makers are put in a more difficult position because they can't dodge it. They can't pretend that it's not likely to happen, because the indicators are there.”

But the big problem of prediction is timing. Recent research suggests forecasters are getting much better at predicting where conflict will erupt, but the “when” is still a challenge.

The 'hard problem'

Conflicts that erupt in countries that were previously in a state of relative peace are extremely rare.

They are seen as the “hard problem” for conflict researchers to predict, with June’s near-miss civil war in Russia being one example.

According to Conflict Forecast, that is because about 90 per cent of conflicts begin within two years of a previous conflict ending in any country. It is what researchers call the “conflict trap”, where damage caused by conflict to infrastructure, the economy and human life leads to growing inequality and grievances – factors that lead to more conflict.

In Libya, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for example, political, ethnic, tribal and religious fractures across communities have occurred against a legacy of colonialism and dictatorship. Add enduring poverty, foreign intervention and available weapons and the result is a nation crashing from one war to the next.

By contrast, if a country can sustain 10 years of peace after a war, the chance of a new conflict drops dramatically, placing a premium on early intervention to stop violence.

It is these unexpected new conflicts outside of the “conflict trap” countries that can derail a nation’s progress, massively setting back societal development, and they're very hard to predict.

Decades of conflict data outlined below illustrate factors likely to cause conflict, including rival armed factions, sudden economic declines and sharp ethnic or religious divisions, often inflamed by inequality.

Some researchers also point to very specific risk factors. Monty Marshall was one of the first members of the Political Instability Task Force, a CIA-commissioned, multi-decade academic project to identify countries most at risk of a collapse into violence.

“PITF reported that factional competition was found to be a powerful, leading indicator for the onset of political instability, especially for adverse regime changes towards greater autocratic authority but, also, for onsets of political violence,” he tells The National.

Armed with this theoretical framework, recent research has tried to use AI to process vast amounts of data, from rainfall in countries where locals have fought over cattle grazing rights, to tracking government arms purchases or those by militia groups and, in one project, even looking at changing patterns of mobile-phone use.

Predicting Middle East conflict

Henry Wilkinson is the chief intelligence officer at Dragonfly, a risk consultancy.

He agrees that predicting new conflicts in countries that had been relatively peaceful for years is difficult, giving the Arab uprisings in 2010 as an example.

He says he visited some of the affected countries, spoke to people on the ground and made observations to try to work out what was next.

“A lot of people who were sort of Middle East experts quite didn't predict the Arab Spring, they didn't predict the contagion effect of how it swept across the region,” he says.

AI conflict prediction programs would “probably have given us slightly more objective diagnoses of the systems and the nature of those systems, compared to the assessment of a lot of people who were long-standing Middle East watchers”, he says.

“Whereas in objective analysis, the data would say ‘this country is at serious risk’, so there's a subjective bias element,” he adds.

Gen McChrystal agrees. “AI is going to help analysts and people who can use the data to reduce their internal biases,” he says.

Both Gen McChrystal and Mr Wilkinson do not see AI conflict forecasting replacing human experts, but rather, multiplying the power of human analysts.

AI from Iraq to Ukraine

Dr Anshu Roy is the founder and CEO of Rhombus Power, the company that created the Guardian AI platform.

He describes how being able to process years worth of data helped his team assess Russia’s intentions in late 2021, warning of invasion months before it happened, getting as detailed as examining local business transactions where Russian forces were based.

“Guardian was able to pick up certain locations of strategic importance that seemed to be glowing particularly hot in terms of activity and changes,” he says.

“With this discovery, the machine was able to drill down into the depth and breadth of its repository of all-domain real-time information. It is the anomalies at these locations that the AI can get specific about, much faster and with greater precision than ever before.

“In seconds, you're aware, through open source, who are the key individuals that matter in this context, and their presence starts to show up. Examining their purchasing and other patterns of life is the natural next step. The AI-derived insights, once interpreted in context, reveal that folks are doing things that you tend to do when you're preparing for the long haul.”

Gen McChrystal says AI data analysis can also help understand highly complex conflict environments, such as civil wars and insurgencies.

“In Afghanistan, one of the ways we would track Taliban activity in the south was prices of produce in the markets. And that's because Afghanistan lacked refrigeration,” he says.

“So many of their grapes and pomegranates had to be trucked to Pakistan, stored under Pakistani refrigeration and then trucked back in. And the number of Taliban checkpoints, including some that were just run by criminals, that would extract bribes affected the prices in the markets.

A Taliban fighter at a road checkpoint in Kandahar in April 2022. AFP
A Taliban fighter at a road checkpoint in Kandahar in April 2022. AFP

“There are just countless examples of this kind of information that are very hard to collect and to collate and to make sense of. But this gets to the heart of what AI has some potential with.”

Gen McChrystal says having this capability today could help spot trends in crisis-hit countries, sifting through thousands of signals to understand political currents.

This could prove vital for conflict forecasters because one of the difficult things to predict, in addition to new conflict, is changes in conflict intensity, from a manageable situation to a major regional crisis.

“I think back to 2005 in Iraq, probably the low point of the conflict, we were cutting edge at that point, because we were gathering – particularly signals intelligence – more than ever before. And we had very rudimentary capability to link it together and to derive conclusions. If we could have done this with AI, we could have first understood that [enemy] network.

“But much more broadly, we could have understood what was happening in Iraq in a way we just didn't. We knew it was terrible, but it was difficult to make sense of the different forces and things that were happening across Iraq. I believe that the capability is already at the point to make much greater sense of a similar crisis today.”

Mr Wilkinson points to a similar need to judge the effects of conflicts as they occur, for example, considering the impact of the Ukraine war on commodities and supply chains.

“If this scenario were to occur, what would we see in terms of the impacts and dealing with the bewildering complexity of all the different permutations of things? And if this were to happen, would the stock market shift up or down and how does it impact supply chains? You can start to link all the dependencies together.”

Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

PAKISTAN SQUAD

Abid Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Shan Masood, Azhar Ali (test captain), Babar Azam (T20 captain), Asad Shafiq, Fawad Alam, Haider Ali, Iftikhar Ahmad, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Sarfaraz Ahmed (wicketkeeper), Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Imran Khan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Hasnain, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Sohail Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz, Imad Wasim, Kashif Bhatti, Shadab Khan and Yasir Shah. 

Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021

Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.

Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.

Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.

Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.

Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.

Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.

Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”

Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI. 

The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars

Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017

Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free

Day 1 fixtures (Saturday)

Men 1.45pm, Malaysia v Australia (Court 1); Singapore v India (Court 2); UAE v New Zealand (Court 3); South Africa v Sri Lanka (Court 4)

Women Noon, New Zealand v South Africa (Court 3); England v UAE (Court 4); 5.15pm, Australia v UAE (Court 3); England v New Zealand (Court 4)

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M3%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%2FUSB-4%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206E%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Midnight%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%2F35W%20dual-port%2F70w%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%2C%202%20Apple%20stickers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C599%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates

Anna and the Apocalypse

Director: John McPhail

Starring: Ella Hunt, Malcolm Cumming, Mark Benton

Three stars

Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021

Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.

The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.

These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.

“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.

“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.

“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.

“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”

Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.

There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.

“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.

“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.

“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”

FIXTURES

All games 6pm UAE on Sunday: 
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa

Updated: July 22, 2023, 6:41 PM`