An acute global shortage of semiconductor chips has threatened supply chains across multiple industries. The National
An acute global shortage of semiconductor chips has threatened supply chains across multiple industries. The National
An acute global shortage of semiconductor chips has threatened supply chains across multiple industries. The National
An acute global shortage of semiconductor chips has threatened supply chains across multiple industries. The National


'Phantom orders', the global chip shortage and the next big recession


Yossi Sheffi
Yossi Sheffi
  • English
  • Arabic

February 04, 2022

Of the countless problems the Covid-19 pandemic has thrown at companies, a global shortage of microchips is one of the most pernicious. Eventually, the supply of chips will recover, but will affected markets then return to normality?

The likely answer is no. In dealing with the scarcity of chips and associated impact on production schedules, markets have helped to seed another crisis in the form of a global economic recession.

The scarcity of chips has hit a wide cross-section of industries, causing backlogs of orders for products including vehicles, consumer electronics and household appliances. Automakers have been severely impacted. According to one estimate by the US-based consulting firm AlixPartners, the global chip shortage cost the auto industry $210 billion in 2021.

The roots of the crisis stretch back to the early days of the pandemic. In the first part of 2020, the arrival of Covid-19 put a brake on economies worldwide. Demand for products and services fell precipitously as consumers stayed at home and governments imposed various restrictions on travel and in-person meetings. The GDP of the world’s largest economy – the US – fell almost 33 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.

As the crisis gained momentum, governments around the globe reacted by injecting huge amounts of money into their economies in various forms such as unemployment benefits, eviction moratoriums and cash grants. Central banks supported these policies in a number of ways, such as keeping a lid on interest rates.

In combination, the above developments laid the groundwork for a jolting increase in demand that was at the heart of the subsequent chip shortage. Governments’ largesse encouraged consumers to start buying again, and demand for products such as home appliances and cars, which are reliant on supplies of microchips, soared. Congestion and reduced capacity of transportation and warehousing afflicted the entire world economy. As consumer spending accelerated, companies struggled to keep up with the sudden turnaround in demand. The abrupt mismatch between supply and demand – and big increases in the cost of transportation and warehousing – dislocated the world’s supply chains, exacerbating product shortages in multiple markets.

Product shortages continue to plague markets today, and it will take some time before the supporting supply chains stabilise. Moreover, the behaviours that underpin the chip shortages are symptomatic of broader market dynamics that are creating conditions conducive to a significant recession.

A key driving force is a well-known supply chain phenomenon called the bullwhip effect. As today’s product manufacturers struggle to keep up with demand as well as unrelenting supply uncertainties, they often over-order, assuming that only a fraction of their orders will actually be fulfilled. They also assume that current demand will continue and grow. The next link in the supply chain, perhaps a parts distributor, receives the inflated order, inflates it further, and passes it to a tier-one supplier. The tier-one supplier does the same, as do all the other suppliers. By the time the order reaches small, sub-tier suppliers deep in the supply chain, it has become grossly proportioned. Orders that are far in excess of what buyers need are sometimes referred to as phantom orders.

No one knows when the shift in demand will occur, or how acute it will be

This scenario is playing out in the semiconductor industry, where over-ordering is widespread. Moreover, there are stories of manufacturers threatening to sue suppliers that do not fulfil their orders. But the same dynamics are at work in most industries, raising the possibility of a broad economic recession.

When demand eases off – as it will at some point in the future – companies will be left with inventories of products they can’t sell and parts they can’t use. The situation will deteriorate further as companies stop ordering. This is especially onerous for smaller suppliers at the end of the supply chain that lack the financial strength to ride out a steep fall off in demand and the cost burden of unsold inventory. In these circumstances, many enterprises will fail, thereby deepening the recession, as happened in the 2007-2008 global financial meltdown.

No one knows when the shift in demand will occur, or how acute it will be. But there are signs that recessionary forces are gaining steam. For example, central banks are expected to start raising interest rates soon in an attempt to curb inflation, actions that could help tip economies into a downturn.

There is also plenty of historical precedent that points the way to bullwhip-related market changes. An example is the 2008 global financial crisis. The bullwhip played out across a broad swathe of industry during that period, and the subsequent downturn caused manufacturers to cut inventories by 15 per cent as their sales declined by some 30 per cent.

As companies today grapple with shortages of parts and components, they should be aware of how the underlying causes of these shortages aided by the bullwhip effect could cause markets to pivot, and prepare for the worst.

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

While you're here
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
  • Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
  • Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
  • The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
  • Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
  • It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
  • Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
  • Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
THE POPE'S ITINERARY

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport


Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma

When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Company profile

Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space

Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)

Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)

Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi 

Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution) 

Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space  

Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019

The%20Beekeeper
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Company%20profile
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Company%20profile
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ILT20%20UAE%20stars
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELEADING%20RUN%20SCORERS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1%20Nicholas%20Pooran%2C%20261%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2%20Muhammad%20Waseem%20(UAE)%2C%20248%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Chris%20Lynn%2C%20244%3Cbr%3E4%20Johnson%20Charles%2C%20232%3Cbr%3E5%20Kusal%20Perera%2C%20230%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBEST%20BOWLING%20AVERAGE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E(minimum%2010%20overs%20bowled)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E1%20Zuhaib%20Zubair%20(UAE)%2C%209%20wickets%20at%2012.44%3Cbr%3E2%20Mohammed%20Rohid%20(UAE)%2C%207%20at%2013.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Fazalhaq%20Farooqi%2C%2017%20at%2013.05%3Cbr%3E4%20Waqar%20Salamkheil%2C%2010%20at%2014.08%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5%20Aayan%20Khan%20(UAE)%2C%204%20at%2015.50%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E6%20Wanindu%20Hasaranga%2C%2012%20at%2016.25%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7%20Mohammed%20Jawadullah%20(UAE)%2C%2010%20at%2017.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

((Disclaimer))

The Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG (“Bank”) assumes no liability or guarantee for the accuracy, balance, or completeness of the information in this publication. The content may change at any time due to given circumstances, and the Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG is under no obligation to update information once it has been published. This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, a recommendation or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch), Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG, or any of its group affiliates to make any investments or obtain services. This publication has not been reviewed, disapproved or approved by the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) Central Bank, Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) or any other relevant licensing authorities in the UAE. It may not be relied upon by or distributed to retail clients. Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch) is regulated by the DFSA and this advertorial is intended for Professional Clients (as defined by the DFSA) who have sufficient financial experience and understanding of financial markets, products or transactions and any associated risks.

HOW%20TO%20ACTIVATE%20THE%20GEMINI%20SHORTCUT%20ON%20CHROME%20CANARY
%3Cp%3E1.%20Go%20to%20%3Cstrong%3Echrome%3A%2F%2Fflags%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Find%20and%20enable%20%3Cstrong%3EExpansion%20pack%20for%20the%20Site%20Search%20starter%20pack%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Restart%20Chrome%20Canary%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Go%20to%20%3Cstrong%3Echrome%3A%2F%2Fsettings%2FsearchEngines%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20in%20the%20address%20bar%20and%20find%20the%20%3Cstrong%3EChat%20with%20Gemini%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20shortcut%20under%20%3Cstrong%3ESite%20Search%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.%20Open%20a%20new%20tab%20and%20type%20%40%20to%20see%20the%20Chat%20with%20Gemini%20shortcut%20along%20with%20other%20Omnibox%20shortcuts%20to%20search%20tabs%2C%20history%20and%20bookmarks%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Padmaavat

Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali

Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh

3.5/5

War 2

Director: Ayan Mukerji

Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana

Rating: 2/5

Civil%20War
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alex%20Garland%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kirsten%20Dunst%2C%20Cailee%20Spaeny%2C%20Wagner%20Moura%2C%20Nick%20Offerman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

While you're here

Trolls World Tour

Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith

Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake

Rating: 4 stars

Brief scores:

QPR 0

Watford 1

Capoue 45' 1

The National in Davos

We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
%3Cp%3EYears%3A%20October%202015%20-%20June%202024%3Cbr%3ETotal%20games%3A%20491%3Cbr%3EWin%20percentage%3A%2060.9%25%3Cbr%3EMajor%20trophies%3A%206%20(Premier%20League%20x%201%2C%20Champions%20League%20x%201%2C%20FA%20Cup%20x%201%2C%20League%20Cup%20x%202%2C%20Fifa%20Club%20World%20Cup%20x1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A

The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
​​​​​​​Princeton

MATCH INFO

Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')

Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)

Day 2, stumps

Pakistan 482

Australia 30/0 (13 ov)

Australia trail by 452 runs with 10 wickets remaining in the innings

Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo

Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm

Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto

Price: from Dh209,000 

On sale: now

One in nine do not have enough to eat

Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.

One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.

The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.

Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.

It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.

On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.

Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.

 

BORDERLANDS

Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis

Director: Eli Roth

Rating: 0/5

PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

The Details

Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5 

ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures

October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA

Your Guide to the Home
  • Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
  • Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
  • Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
     
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
World record transfers

1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m

ACL Elite (West) - fixtures

Monday, Sept 30

Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)

Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The National in Davos

We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

MATCH DETAILS

Chelsea 4 

Jorginho (4 pen, 71 pen), Azpilicueta (63), James (74)

Ajax 4

Abraham (2 og), Promes (20). Kepa (35 og), van de Beek (55) 

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
​​​​​​​Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
Jewel of the Expo 2020

252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome

13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas

550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome

724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses

Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa

Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site

The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants

Al Wasl means connection in Arabic

World’s largest 360-degree projection surface

A Prayer Before Dawn

Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire

Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai

Three stars

MATCH INFO

World Cup qualifier

Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')

UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')

Updated: February 05, 2022, 10:45 AM`