In November’s midterm elections in the US, the Democrats will be focused on winning back the governorships and legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The party lost decisively in these important states four years ago.
As Democrats are currently debating their 2014 electoral strategies, not a week passes without the media arguing what the party must do to regain lost ground in these critical states. Some Democrats make the case for doubling down on increasing voter turnout among those constituencies that have become the new core vote of the party: youth, African Americans, Latinos, Asians and professional, educated women.
They make the case that this approach worked for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. If these same groups can be energised again, they argue, the Democrats can win in 2014.
What is missing from this strategy is that it gives short shrift to a substantial groups of voters that Democrats have ignored for decades.
According to the 2010 census, more than one-third of all residents in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are immigrants or the descendants of immigrants from European and Mediterranean countries. Many retain a strong attachment to their heritage, belong to ethnic organisations and churches, and remain connected through their ethnic media. Many of them also have deep roots in the labour movement and in the Democratic Party.
A decade ago, based on polling conducted by my brother John Zogby, I wrote What Ethnic Americans Really Think. What we found was that these ethnic voters embrace values that are progressive and traditional. They are progressive on the role of government in public education, health care and labour issues.
At the same time, they are traditional in their attachment to their families and their communities.
These ethnic voters were once core constituents of the Democrats, but along the way the party stopped talking to them and lost their support.
This disconnect came through quite clearly for me one night in 1984 at an event I have often talked about in the years since. It was the National Italian-American Foundation Gala in Washington DC, featuring speeches by presidential candidates Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan.
Mr Mondale spoke first. His speech had nine applause lines, most came when he mentioned the name of his running mate, Geraldine Ferraro. The rest of the speech was a litany of issues and pledges to various groups.
Ronald Reagan’s speech began like this: “My grandmother, like yours, came to this country with nothing but her hopes and dreams. She worked her fingers to the bone, believing in the promise of America that someday one of her own could run for president of this great country. I stand before you the beneficiary of her hard work, the fulfilment of her dreams.”
I left that night knowing that Reagan would win the Italian vote – and he did.
What should have been of concern to Democrats was that the speech that Reagan had given was one that had been given for decades by Democratic Party leaders. It evoked themes of family, heritage, hard work and the values of America. It represented the very messages Democrats once carried, but had since lost. In reality, Mr Mondale had a programme designed to ensure economic security for middle-class ethnic voters, but he wasn’t talking to them in language that showed he understood their identity. Over the years, the disconnect between Democrats and ethnic Europeans has only grown.
This November, Democrats will have the chance to reconnect with those voters, while still courting other key groups. It is not an either-or proposition: immigration reform, expanding health care coverage, creating good jobs, promoting women’s rights for equal pay and opportunity, improving public education and protecting workers rights are issues that affect all Americans.
If Democrats stop treating ethnic voters as if they were an undefined mass of “white” voters and speak to them as descendants of Irish, Italian, Polish, Ukrainian, Greek and Lebanese immigrants whose history is celebrated and whose values are embraced, they stand a chance of winning them back.
James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute
On Twitter: @aaiusa