It is never a good thing when the world's superpower and the runner-up find themselves at loggerheads, especially when smaller nations depend on the health of their relationship for their own stability.
This is why the worsening tensions between the US and China come as bad news for the near and long-term security of the Gulf region. Although the two countries share the paramount goal of securing the flow of oil from the region and, by extension, a principled agreement on avoiding unnecessary conflicts, points of friction are multiplying, increasingly on matters pertinent to the Middle East.
There are several immediate factors behind deteriorating relations between the two countries, from Google's decision to stand firm against Chinese government censorship to the upcoming meeting between the US president Barack Obama and the Dalai Lama.
But it is fundamental differences on their global responsibilities that is causing this split. The US believes it must reconcile its hard interests and global role with self-proclaimed universal values, while China has a narrower, less politically intrusive and more cynical approach focused on its needs.
Formerly, these two outlooks did not clash because of China's weakness and inward-looking priorities. But as China grows and reaches abroad to secure resources and markets, opportunities for friction increase.
Importantly, driven by its unrelenting hunger for oil, China's reluctance to impose sanctions on Iran to curtail its nuclear progress and inability to propose other diplomatic strategies beyond a preference for a peaceful, non-nuclear Middle East run counter to the perceived threat of a nuclear Iran, not only in the US but also in the region.
The Gulf states will not speak up for fear of alienating an actor that is growing more powerful, is widely respected in the region, and will soon become their top oil importer, so they rely on surrogates to voice their angst.
A few days ago, the US secretary of state Hillary Clinton warned that China was isolating itself by opposing sanctions. However exaggerated and unbecoming that statement was, it reflected a concern about China's Middle East priorities that went beyond US interests.
Another seemingly distant episode also has relevance for the Gulf. In response to US arms sales to Taiwan worth $6.4 billion, China has publicly marked its discontent and announced broad retaliatory measures. Though the US has a "one-China" policy that favours a voluntary and peaceful reunification of mainland China and Taiwan, it is obligated by law to come to Taiwan's defence.
China, oblivious to the majority of Taiwan's desire for autonomy, sees US support for Taiwan as interference in its internal affairs. This is why the Taiwan Strait is a flash point on a par with the Gulf and the Korean Peninsula, and another place where the US security role has a stabilising effect.
Indeed, there is a deep similarity between Taiwan and the small Gulf states. The example of Taiwan illustrates the challenges that small nations face in countering neighbouring great powers with ambitions ranging from political to territorial hegemony.
All analogies are imperfect, but in a way China is to Taiwan what Saddam Hussein's Iraq was once to Kuwait, and what Iran has been and is to the small Gulf states: a massive, overbearing neighbour that can only be balanced through complex strategies of global interdependence and privileged relations with other great powers.
Taiwan's strategic options are constrained by its lack of international recognition as other countries seek to stay on China's good side, but, ironically, its economic interdependence is greatest with China, which greatly reduces the risk of conflict.
Like China, Iran is never pleased when its neighbours acquire weaponry, allow foreign armies to establish bases or obtain security assurances. However, isolated Iran is not a giant like China, and the Gulf states have more instruments and resources to fend off its ambitions. In fact, their security policies are only one aspect of a broader, more ambitious grand strategy.
The Gulf states may have limited economic links to Iran, but their priority is to diversify and deepen political, economic and cultural relations with faraway nations, many with limited military power, to build layers of goodwill and protection that will be useful in times of need.
This strategy is also motivated by the awareness of the complications entailed by absolute dependence on one security partner, the situation Taiwan finds itself in. Such vulnerability drastically limits a country's political flexibility and options, and makes its fortunes dependent on a single partner whose interests with other nations may compete and conflict with its obligations, real or perceived.
The Gulf states don't want US Gulf policy to be a mere by-product of US-Iran relations, and they fear that the US will one day come to see Iran as a bigger strategic and economic prize.
The other side of the coin is also complex. How the US handles the current and future Taiwan crisis and whether it truly takes Taiwan's side in an eventual war with China will shape perceptions of its credibility as a security guarantor elsewhere. This is true for Japan and South Korea, but also for the Gulf states.
However unlikely, for the moment, imagine the US refusing to sell missile defence systems to the Gulf states because of Iranian pressure. That would shatter Gulf trust in Washington, but there would be other partners to count on. That is the point of hedging strategies.
Of course, the US-led liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi occupation reminds everyone of the credibility of the US commitment, but it is also important to recognise that this military intervention was internationally sanctioned.
This is why the Gulf states are at pains to convince the world that their stability and that of the Gulf is a global responsibility, not just an American interest.
@Email:ehokayem@thenational.ae
Dubai Women's Tour teams
Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
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Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
HEADLINE HERE
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The%20specs
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Company%20profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
360Vuz PROFILE
Date started: January 2017
Founder: Khaled Zaatarah
Based: Dubai and Los Angeles
Sector: Technology
Size: 21 employees
Funding: $7 million
Investors: Shorooq Partners, KBW Ventures, Vision Ventures, Hala Ventures, 500Startups, Plug and Play, Magnus Olsson, Samih Toukan, Jonathan Labin
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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RESULTS
6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.
8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Results:
First Test: New Zealand 30 British & Irish Lions 15
Second Test: New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
Third Test: New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
Islamic%20Architecture%3A%20A%20World%20History
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eric%20Broug%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thames%20%26amp%3B%20Hudson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20336%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20September%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard
2pm Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m
2.30pm Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m
3pm Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
3.30pm Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m
4pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.30pm Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m
5pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
5.30pm Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m
The National selections:
2pm Arch Gold
2.30pm Conclusion
3pm Al Battar
3.30pm Golden Jaguar
4pm Al Motayar
4.30pm Tapi Sioux
5pm Leadership
5.30pm Dahawi
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI