In his response to the threat posed by North Korea, US president Donald Trump has achieved a worldwide consensus. From German chancellor Angela Merkel to China’s president Xi Jinping, leaders across the political spectrum are of one mind: Mr Trump’s methods are borderline insane.
Yet among political scientists, his scarily off-hand tweets and trash-talk are prompting discussion of an even more bizarre possibility. Perhaps there is Nobel-prizewinning method behind the apparent madness.
Given his notorious impatience with pointy-heads, it’s unlikely Mr Trump is familiar with the works of the late Thomas Schelling, the American foreign policy expert who in 2005 won the Nobel memorial prize in economics for his work on conflict and cooperation.
It is, however, entirely possible that Trump discovered for himself the concept for which Professor Schelling became famous. After all, it can be found in the works of Niccolo Machiavelli, author of that notorious 16th century guide to political strategy, The Prince.
Half a millennium ago, the Italian diplomat to whom Trump has so often been likened, put it bluntly: “It is a very wise thing to simulate craziness at the right time”.
And according to Prof Schelling, the right time can be when you are locked in a high-stakes conflict – like a potential nuclear stand-off.
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Read more:
Billionaire advisor quits White House role in further blow to Trump
Steve Bannon firing: Winners and losers
How Trump's business councils imploded
North Korea crisis: United States and South Korea to conduct joint exercise
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His disturbing advocacy of what he called “rational irrationality” has its origins in Game Theory, a mathematical bag of tricks invented in the 1920s to find the best strategies for playing card games. By the 1950s, its potential applications to far more serious “games” had attracted the interest of US think-tanks and the Pentagon.
Brilliant theorists like Schelling and John Nash (the focus of the 2001 Oscar-winning biopic A Beautiful Mind) analysed a host of situations where adversaries had to work out optimal outcomes without knowing what the other side was planning.
The most infamous was the game of Chicken, in which two drivers head for a cliff-edge, the winner being the one who bails out last.
Clearly, the best collective outcome is for both drivers to do the same thing and “chicken out” at the same moment. But for each driver separately, the winning strategy is to drive on, and hope the other bails first.
The problem, of course, lies in ensuring that the other driver does so before you both go over the cliff-edge. But how can that be guaranteed?
Early Game Theory was based on the idea that, ultimately, everyone is rational, and wants the best outcome – but not at any price. So although you might not know exactly what the other “player” is planning, you can at least count on them being rational.
But theorists like Schelling realised this could be flipped into a whole new way to win games like Chicken: convince your opponent you’re insane. No longer sure you’re playing rationally, they will opt to play safe, and bail before you do.
In 1960, Prof Schelling published The Strategy of Conflict in which he applied these kinds of insights to real-life conflicts and negotiations.
And in one scenario, he described how to improve a negotiating position by playing Chicken – but tearing off the steering wheel and waving it at the opposition to show you’re no longer in control of events.
However, Prof Schelling came to have second thoughts about “rational irrationality” when it was put into practice by perhaps the only US president to match Trump for divisiveness: Richard Nixon.
Coming to power in 1968, Nixon set about trying to secure “Peace with honour” in Vietnam. The problem was everyone knew the US had no hope of winning – so some way was needed to dissuade North Vietnam and its allies from pressing on. Nixon believed the answer lay in creating the impression he was obsessed with achieving his goal – and would risk everything to achieve it.
The result was a series of intense air attacks on North Vietnam, culminating in the notorious Christmas Bombings of 1972.
The raids sparked international outrage, and headlines condemning them as “Savage and senseless”. Even so, by early January 1973 Nixon’s policy appeared to have been vindicated, with the signing of the Paris Peace Accords.
In reality, what he himself called his “Madman Theory” achieved neither peace nor honour. The Accords were violated by both sides, and South Vietnam fell into Communist hands – precisely what the US had sought to prevent.
Schelling and other theorists sought to distance themselves from Nixon’s strategy. In fact, Nixon seems to have taken his cue from studies of other world leaders faced with tough decisions.
In his memoirs, he mentions how one had taught him “the importance of being unpredictable when dealing with the Communists”. The advice had come from Syngman Rhee – first president of South Korea.
Can the Madman Theory work with North Korea? Some would argue all bets are off, as this time there are madmen on both sides. Either way, president Trump may be about to test the idea literally to destruction.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Professor of Science at Aston University, Birmingham, UK
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Naga
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs: 2019 BMW X4
Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged in-line six-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
New Zealand
Penalties: Barrett (7)
British & Irish Lions
Tries: Faletau, Murray
Penalties: Farrell (4)
Conversions: Farrell
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MORE ON INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Rajasthan Royals 153-5 (17.5 ov)
Delhi Daredevils 60-4 (6 ov)
Rajasthan won by 10 runs (D/L method)
Indian construction workers stranded in Ajman with unpaid dues
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
