This year will be remembered for many milestones, such as the record performances at the Beijing Olympics and a historic US presidential race. Less noticed, but perhaps just as significant in the history of our solar system, for the first time in 95 years, a month has gone by without a single spot forming on the sun's surface.
While this may appear to interest only scientists who rarely leave their laboratories, the level of solar activity has an impact on climate conditions that affect everyone on the planet. Indeed, the absence of sunspots has caused commentators to revisit an unpublished paper from 2005 by a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory in Arizona.
Dr William Livingston and Matthew Penn predicted that, by 2015, sunspots would vanish for ever, stoking fears that a mini ice age would be in store, severely impacting life on parts of the globe.
If this is the case, it will not be the first time a lack of sunspots has been linked to cooler temperatures. In the second half of the 17th and the early 18th century, few sunspots were recorded - there were 50 when one thousand times that number would have been expected. The weather was so cold the River Thames in London froze over for weeks and harvests throughout Europe failed, all because of the unpredictable behaviour of a star almost two hundred million kilometres away from Earth.
A sunspot is an area of intense magnetic activity and lower temperatures on the sun's surface - lower by the sun's standards, that is. Instead of being around 5,800 C, like the rest of the sun, these areas have temperatures between 4,000 C and 4,500 C.
While sunspots may be cooler themselves, they lead to greater solar heating because the areas around them are extra hot.
If there are no sunspots, then the magnetic field of the sun is weakened and solar heating is minimised.
Scientists believe this magnetic field changes with time because of the rotation of the sun and the turbulence this brings with it.
If we are entering a cold phase, it will represent a major turnaround; just four years ago, headlines were revealing than sunspot activity was at a 1,000-year peak.
According to Professor Sami Solanki, director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, the past 50 to 60 years have had "a major high" in sunspot numbers.
"If you look back at the last 10,000 years there's been another 20 periods where the sun has been particularly active," he says.
Generally, the number of sunspots rises and declines in an 11-year cycle that results from the way rivers of gases circulate between the poles and the equator of the sun.
"Every 10 or 11 years you have a period with many sunspots and a period with very few," Prof Solanki says.
He believes what we are seeing at the moment is not unusual for the low point in this cycle, but views among researchers vary wildly.
There is, as Prof Solanki puts it, "no consensus whatsoever," with opinions varying according to the details of the mathematical models used for projections. Some groups of researchers believe the sun will be very weak, others believe it will be particularly strong.
"I don't think at the moment you can make any reliable predictions. It is very difficult because it's a very chaotic phenomenon. We don't have any physical insight to make a proper job of it," he says.
It will take a few years for us to know which view turns out to be right. In the meantime scientists will be anxiously scanning the surface of the sun to see small sunspots at high latitude, which would herald the start of a new cycle of solar activity. There is little sign of them so far.
Even if those who predict less solar activity turn out to be right, the consequences may not be too severe.
Current thinking, Prof Solanki explains, is that variations in solar activity cause temperatures to increase or decrease by only about 0.2 or 0.4 C.
If this is compared to the estimated change in temperatures brought about over the past century by climate change due to man's activities - a 0.8 C increase according to some reports - then the impact of spikes and dips in the power of the sun, while not negligible, will not be catastrophic.
When matched against some dire predictions about an increase in world temperatures from global warming of up to 4C by the end of the 21st century, a few decades of solar downtime has less significance. But this year, as the sun has calmed down, temperatures appear to have cooled down.
Over the past 18 months the average global temperature has cooled to what it averaged a century ago, before there were fears about global warming.
"The last time there were no sunspots and there was a mini ice age in the 17th century, there were no greenhouse gases. Even if we had a less bright sun now, I would be surprised if we had a little ice age. I am not sure that, in Abu Dhabi, a little ice age would be felt at all," Prof Solanki says.
However, just as there is no consensus on whether the sun is about to enter a cooler period, scientists cannot agree on how much impact a cooler sun could have.
The decrease could be as much as 1.5 C over the next 12 years, according to some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences. And this may be more than enough to counteract the impact of global warming.
Even if the spots on its surface do not cause us problems over the coming years, the sun is likely to make conditions on earth far less hospitable in the more distant future. Today's hot UAE summer will seem like a cool spring day.
As part of a cycle of stellar evolution lasting more than 10 billion years, the sun is gradually growing larger and over the next billion years, is likely to increase in size by several per cent. "A few per cent is a lot. It will have a marked effect. There are predictions we'll see a runaway greenhouse effect due to the brightness of the sun in one billion or two billion years. That would be a time to worry," says Prof Solanki.
In a billion years' time, it is thought the Earth's surface will be too hot for water to exist as a liquid and the planet will be uninhabitable.
So the sun, the planet that sustains life, could turn out to be our biggest enemy. Consider yourself warned - and don't forget your sunblock.
dbardsley@thenational.ae
The Scale for Clinical Actionability of Molecular Targets
MWTC
Tickets start from Dh100 for adults and are now on sale at www.ticketmaster.ae and Virgin Megastores across the UAE. Three-day and travel packages are also available at 20 per cent discount.
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The years Ramadan fell in May
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 Chelsea 0
De Bruyne (70')
Man of the Match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
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How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
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