The one word most often used to sum up 2011 is "extreme". Hardly anyone escaped the effects of last year's turmoil, with its political and financial upheavals. Even the elements joined in: the US usually gets three or four weather disasters annually that cost a billion dollars each; last year it was hit by 12.
Time was when we thought of such extremes as rarities, events seen perhaps once in a lifetime. Now the extreme looks set to become the routine.
But the shocking prevalence of freak events comes as less of a surprise to those familiar with a technique now being increasingly used to make sense of them: Extreme Value Theory (EVT).
Put simply, EVT is a branch of probability that gives insight into the seemingly unknowable: the chances of events so extreme they may never have been seen.
When mathematicians began developing its foundations in the 1920s, their starting point was the idea that extreme events of any kind - the highest daytime temperature, say, or the worst market crash - follow a so-called probability distribution, which shows how the chances of such an event vary with its size.
Most of us are familiar with at least one distribution: the so-called "bell-curve", more properly called the normal distribution.
It is familiar because it is ubiquitous. From the outcome of tossing coins to the heights of children in a classroom, the hump-shaped normal distribution reflects both the most likely outcome - shown by the position of its peak - and the chances of getting more unusual outcomes.
Just how likely these are depends on how the bell curve spreads out to either side of the peak, a feature captured by a number dubbed "sigma". Once the value of one sigma is known, the normal distribution spits out the corresponding probabilities.
Any quantity following a normal distribution has a 32 per cent chance of lying more than one sigma away from the central peak, a 5 per cent chance of getting one more than two sigmas away, and only a 1 in 2 million chance of an outcome over five sigmas away.
Small wonder, then, that David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs, admitted his perplexity in August 2007 after announcing that the loss of 27 per cent of the value of one of the firm's flagship funds represented a 25-sigma event. Such an event would not normally be expected to occur even once during the entire history of the universe.
What that means, of course, is that the losses probably weren't following a normal distribution. This was a possibility hinted at more than a decade earlier by the then-chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan.
In November 1995, after the two rogue trader meltdowns, Mr Greenspan hinted there may be merit in adopting "the statistical distribution of extreme events".
Few heeded the call: three years later the financial sector witnessed the US$4.6bn collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that fell foul of extreme events.
But now such ostrich-like attitudes are no longer acceptable - due in no small measure to the success of the risk management guru Nassim Nicholas Taleb's best-seller The Black Swan - his term for extreme events. And the events of recent years have revealed the perils of expecting the normal distribution to be reliable when gauging the chances of extreme events.
The core of the problem is revealed by EVT. In essence the graceful bell curve is just too graceful to handle extreme events, which can be shown to follow a different distribution. This is what EVT provides, and it shows that the bell curve's "tails" radically underestimate the chances of extreme events. To get a better estimate, EVT requires historical data on the past extremes - for example, the highest temperatures in Abu Dhabi for the past 50 years. These can then be used to fit a distribution to what is known - and extrapolated to gauge the size of what could still await us. The recent calamities have triggered a surge of work applying EVT methods to a host of issues, especially in finance and climate.
For example, Marco Rocco of the Bank of Italy, among others, has shown how EVT can boost the reliability of so-called Value at Risk calculations by financial institutions, defined as the biggest loss that could occur over a fixed time-period (typically 10 trading days) with a probability of, say, 1 in 100. If the calculations assume normal distributions, they are all too likely to leave investment banks feeling too confident about the future.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada analysts Toni Gravelle and Fuchun Li have put EVT at the heart of their method for gauging the contribution of individual banks to the overall health of the financial system.
Earlier this month, researchers in Switzerland used EVT to make sense of the lethal heatwave that struck Europe in 2003, leaving more than 40,000 dead.
They found that such an event was indeed extraordinary, happening just once in 2,000 years. But by factoring in the effects of global warming, they showed that by 2050 the chances of a repeat of the calamity may rise six-fold.
Not everyone is convinced of the power of EVT; ironically, sceptics include the author of The Black Swan. But anyone looking for a demonstration of confidence in the theory should visit the Netherlands. In February 1953, a huge storm surge broke through the nation's sea dykes, killing 1,800 people and destroying tens of thousands of homes. Within weeks, the Dutch government set up an expert committee, instructing it to design new sea defences that could be relied on to beat the worst nature could throw at them for the next 10,000 years.
After analysing centuries of data, engineers used EVT to calculate that a system of five-metre dykes would suffice. Today, 16 million people are living under the protection offered by this extraordinary mathematical technique.
Robert Matthews is a visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
The years Ramadan fell in May
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
RESULT
Argentina 0 Croatia 3
Croatia: Rebic (53'), Modric (80'), Rakitic (90' 1)
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
General%20Classification
%3Cp%3E1.%20Elisa%20Longo%20Borghini%20(ITA)%20Trek-Segafredo%3Cbr%3E2.%20Gaia%20Realini%20(ITA)%20Trek-Segafredo%207%20secs%3Cbr%3E3.%20Silvia%20Persico%20(ITA)%20UAE%20Team%20ADQ%201%20min%2018%20secs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Scoreline
Australia 2-1 Thailand
Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
Thailand: Pokklaw 82'
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.8%22%20quad-HD%2B%20dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%203120%20x%201440%2C%20505ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20120Hz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204nm%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%20Gen%203%2C%2064-bit%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012GB%20RAM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20One%20UI%206.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20quad%20200MP%20wide%20f%2F1.7%20%2B%2050MP%20periscope%20telephoto%20f%2F3.4%20with%205x%20optical%2F10x%20optical%20quality%20zoom%20%2B%2010MP%20telephoto%202.4%20with%203x%20optical%20zoom%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20f%2F2.2%3B%20100x%20Space%20Zoom%3B%20auto%20HDR%2C%20expert%20RAW%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208K%4024%2F30fps%2C%204K%4030%2F60%2F120fps%2C%20full-HD%4030%2F60%2F240fps%2C%20full-HD%20super%20slo-mo%40960fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205000mAh%2C%20fast%20wireless%20charging%202.0%2C%20Wireless%20PowerShare%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%2C%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3B%20built-in%20Galaxy%20S%20Pen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP68%2C%20up%20to%201.5m%20of%20freshwater%20up%20to%2030%20minutes%3B%20dust-resistant%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESIM%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano%20%2B%20nano%20%2F%20nano%20%2B%20eSIM%20%2F%20dual%20eSIM%20(varies%20in%20different%20markets)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Titanium%20black%2C%20titanium%20grey%2C%20titanium%20violet%2C%20titanium%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGalaxy%20S24%20Ultra%2C%20USB-C-to-C%20cable%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh5%2C099%20for%20256GB%2C%20Dh5%2C599%20for%20512GB%2C%20Dh6%2C599%20for%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
RACE CARD
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
