Covid paradox: Why are cases rising but deaths falling?

National Editorial: We cannot allow ourselves to tire in the fight against Covid-19

Cases of Covid-19 are on the rise again. In Europe, South Korea, Australia and elsewhere, countries that successfully controlled the virus are now seeing a spike in cases.

The UAE is among the many nations to once again consider localised lockdowns, with officials warning of a 'second wave' if the public does not act responsibly.

Yet like many other countries, the increase in cases here has not been matched by a surge in deaths. So is the virus becoming less deadly - or are we witnessing the calm before the storm of a second wave of Covid-19?

While the mortality rate among over-80s is around 1 in 10, this plunges to 1 in 100 for those between 60 and 69 and is close to zero for those under 40

What do the statistics show?

Globally, the Covid-19 pandemic is still raging, with over 24 million cases resulting in over 800,000 deaths so far. Yet many countries who appeared to have successfully controlled the virus are now seeing renewed surges in Covid-19 cases.

Since the end of June, Spain and France have witnessed almost a ten-fold surge in new infections, now running at several thousand a day.

Even South Korea – widely regarded as a paragon of disease control - has seen a five-fold rise in infections this month, and on Tuesday closed schools in the capital, Seoul. Germany, Italy and the UK are also seeing case numbers rise, though far less dramatically.

In the UAE, the number of cases has crept up to several hundred a day. Active cases rose by 10 per cent in August.

Yet the surge in infections seen in many countries has not been mirrored by rising numbers of deaths, which have largely continued to fall or remain static.

Is the virus getting less lethal?

This is the most obvious explanation. It also fits in with the theory that pandemic viruses tend to mutate into less deadly forms, as they have a better chance of being transmitted if they don’t kill their human hosts.

However studies of Sars-CoV-2 - the scientific name for the coronavirus, which causes Covid-19 - suggest it has a relatively slow mutation rate.

As such, a substantial decrease in its lethality is unlikely to have taken place over recent months.

Are we just getting better at treating the disease?

Greater knowledge and better treatments – such as the use of dexamethasone – have cut death-rates among the seriously ill. While in March almost 60 per cent of Covid-19 patients in intensive care units died, this figure dropped to around 40 per cent by May and is still falling.

However, this can’t explain why the surge in infections has led to virtually unchanged death rates.

Are we simply seeing more cases by testing more people?

This is widely seen as a key part of the explanation. In the early days of the pandemic, many countries were forced to limit tests to people already showing signs of Covid-19 and thus more likely to die from it.

Now the greater availability of testing is leading to positive results from people with mild infections who are much less likely to die.

This weakens the link between number of cases and numbers of deaths. It’s even possible that the actual number of infections has changed little over recent months, and the surge is largely due to detecting cases that were already there.

Isn’t it mainly young people who are driving up the cases?

UAE public warned to act responsibly after 10 per cent spike in Covid-19 cases

From face masks to iPads, how pupils are preparing for a first day back at school

With testing now more widely available, it is also covering more of the population – especially younger age-groups, who are known to be at substantially lower risk of dying from Covid-19.

A recent international study suggests that while the mortality rate among those over-80s who become infected is around 1 in 10, this plunges to around 1 in 100 for those between 60 and 69, and is close to zero for those under 40.

This has prompted fears that re-introducing lockdowns in response to the surge in cases will cause major economic damage in return for little health benefit, as most people of working age are at negligible risk.

So should restrictions apply only to older adults and the vulnerable?

Some epidemiologists argue for a focused approach to dealing with the surge in cases, based on so-called "stratified" restrictions based on age and health status. Some studies suggest limiting restrictions on around 15 per cent of the population would strike the right balance between protecting the vulnerable and health services while not threatening economic recovery.

There is tentative evidence that people in high-risk categories may have already adopted this strategy voluntarily.

An analysis by the Financial Times of UK statistics show that while new infection rates have surged among younger people since early June, they have plunged among men over 70 and women over 50. This may partly be due to those in these age-groups deliberately taking action to avoid infection.

Should we just ignore the surge?

Not at all. While the surge may be taking place primarily among younger people with very little chance of dying, they remain capable of passing it on to older, more vulnerable people. This risk is likely to increase as more young people are compelled to move back in with their parents because of economic hardship.

Dying from Covid-19 is not the sole outcome of becoming infected, in any case: studies have found that many of those who appear to defeat the virus can still suffer debilitating long-term effects, including organ damage.

Robert Matthews is visiting professor of science at Aston University, Birmingham, UK

Kareem Shaheen on Canada

A second lockdown will be especially tough in cold countries

Hard-hit Canada is springing back to the cliched 'new normal'

Justin Trudeau 2.0 will need to take all of Canada with him

Closing the tap when washing hands for those 20 seconds can save billions of litres of water

Key facilities

Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

The specs

Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet

The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio

Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)

Engine 4.7L V8

Transmission Six-speed automatic

Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm

Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km

GYAN’S ASIAN OUTPUT

2011-2015: Al Ain – 123 apps, 128 goals

2015-2017: Shanghai SIPG – 20 apps, 7 goals

2016-2017: Al Ahli (loan) – 25 apps, 11 goals

Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk

“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”

“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”

“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”

“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”

Pathaan

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme

Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates

Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

From exhibitions to the battlefield

In 2016, the Shaded Dome was awarded with the 'De Vernufteling' people's choice award, an annual prize by the Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers and the Royal Netherlands Society of Engineers for the most innovative project by a Dutch engineering firm.

It was assigned by the Dutch Ministry of Defence to modify the Shaded Dome to make it suitable for ballistic protection. Royal HaskoningDHV, one of the companies which designed the dome, is an independent international engineering and project management consultancy, leading the way in sustainable development and innovation.

It is driving positive change through innovation and technology, helping use resources more efficiently.

It aims to minimise the impact on the environment by leading by example in its projects in sustainable development and innovation, to become part of the solution to a more sustainable society now and into the future.