Something very bad has happened to the climate. Across the world, people are struggling to cope with extremes of weather that threaten their survival. Deaths from famine and disease are soaring, and it is clear that disaster looms unless the current climatic upheaval ends.
No, it is not another grim communique from the climate change conference in Copenhagen: it is a summary of what was starting to happen to our planet exactly 200 years ago. And back then it was not global warming that threatened mankind, but the precise opposite. From 1809 onward, our entire planet was plunged into a decade-long Ice Age which devastated communities from Canada through Europe to China. The exact toll in human lives will never be known, but an estimated 200,000 died in Europe alone during the depths of the crisis in 1816 - the "year without a summer".
At least there has been little doubt about the cause. The finger of blame is usually pointed at Mt Tambora, a still-active volcano in Indonesia that exploded in 1815 in the most powerful eruption of modern times. The blast injected billions of tonnes of debris into the atmosphere, the resulting veil of dust cutting the level of the Sun's heat reaching the Earth's surface, and triggering global cooling.
All very neat and tidy. But new research has now revealed a twist to the tale - and a new mystery. According to an international team of scientists, analysis of climate records shows that the global cooling actually began around five years before Mt Tambora blew up. It thus seems something else must have been involved; but what?
The obvious suspect is another volcanic eruption. Certainly, the early 19th century did seem to have been afflicted by a plague of the events: between 1812 and 1814 no fewer than four volcanoes erupted at sites as far afield as the Caribbean and Japan. Yet they were all relatively minor events - and the timing is still wrong in any case.
A search of the historical record for eyewitness reports of an eruption or weird atmospheric effects around 1810 has also come up empty. The absence of such evidence does not imply evidence of absence: the explosion may just have happened in some remote part of the world.
What is certain is that any eruption capable of disrupting the climate must have injected a huge amount of dust high into the atmosphere - and what goes up must come down. This prompted Professor Jihong Cole-Dai of South Dakota State University and his colleagues to look for a telltale sign of an eruption around 1810 in samples of polar ice.
Now they have found it, in the form of sulphur trapped in ice-cores extracted from the ice-caps of Greenland and Antarctica. The exact characteristics of their discovery are highly significant. First, analysis of the sulphur revealed anomalous amounts of a certain isotope, implying that it had interacted with air in the stratosphere - which only truly colossal eruptions can reach. Second, the discovery of the anomaly at ice-core levels corresponding to the same date point to a single event. Using ice-core data for the Mt Tambora event, the team estimates that the earlier eruption took place in 1809, possibly in February of that year.
But where did it happen? Reporting their findings in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, Prof Cole-Dai and his colleagues argue that the discovery of the sulphur anomaly at both poles points to a location somewhere in the tropics - the only part of the world from which dust can travel to both Greenland and Antarctica.
Yet this serves only to deepen the mystery of the eruption of 1809, as it seems incredible that a colossal explosion in so populous a part of the world could have gone unreported.
In the case of Mt Tambora, the explosion killed tens of thousands locally, generated a tsunami that killed thousands more across Indonesia, and was heard more than 2,000km away. An eruption as violent as that which seems to have taken place in 1809 would surely have done more than merely generate some dust at the poles.
Clearly, some more detective work is needed to solve the mystery of the 1809 eruption. Whatever is found, the disastrous events of the subsequent decade underline the swift, global and ineluctable climatic influence of volcanoes.
It is a phenomenon attracting increasing interest among researchers trying to fathom the evolution of modern humans. Most palaeo-anthropologists believe that Homo sapiens spread across the globe after leaving Africa around 70,000 years ago. What is not clear, however, is precisely why these early humans left their homeland.
One possibility is that they were driven out by climate change, which made parts of Africa inhospitable. This version of the so-called Out of Africa Hypothesis has been bolstered by studies of Lake Toba in Sumatra - the site of the largest eruption on Earth in the last 2.5 million years.
Like Mt Tambora, this Indonesian volcano blasted colossal amounts of dust into the air, triggering a plunge in global temperatures of as much as 5°C. And according to geologists, what has been called the Toba Catastrophe took place around 74,000 years ago - right in line with the Out of Africa date.
According to some researchers, the resulting climatic upheaval was so terrible that the human race may have been pushed to the brink of extinction. Others insist that Homo sapiens was smart enough by then to adapt to the dire conditions.
It is a debate with echoes that can be heard this week in Copenhagen. Some believe global warming threatens the very survival of Homo sapiens; others argue we can adapt. At Copenhagen, most are pushing for measures to tackle the root cause, by restricting greenhouse gases.
With volcanic eruptions, that is not an option. No amount of technology or legislation can prevent a future Mt Tambora event. When one strikes, we will have no choice but to do as we did exactly 200 years ago, and just get through it.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Leaderboard
64 - Gavin Green (MAL), Graeme McDowell (NIR)
65 - Henrik Stenson (SWE), Sebastian Soderberg (SWE), Adri Arnaus (ESP), Victor Perez (FRA), Jhonattan Vegas (VEN)
66 - Phil Mickelson (USA), Tom Lewis (ENG), Andy Sullivan (ENG), Ross Fisher (ENG), Aaron Rai (ENG), Ryan Fox (NZL)
67 - Dustin Johnson (USA), Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (ESP), Lucas Herbert (AUS), Francesco Laporta (ITA), Joost Luiten (NED), Soren Kjeldsen (DEN), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
68 - Alexander Bjork (SWE), Matthieu Pavon (FRA), Adrian Meronk (POL), David Howell (ENG), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (RSA), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR), Sean Crocker (USA), Scott Hend (AUS), Justin Harding (RSA), Jazz Janewattananond (THA), Shubhankar Sharma (IND), Renato Paratore (ITA)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Sting & Shaggy
44/876
(Interscope)
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Superior, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap Dh 185,000 2,000m
Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Roy Orbison, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.15pm
Handicap Dh 190,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.50pm
Handicap Dh 175,000 1,600m
Winner: Welford, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
9.25pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,200m
Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Sandeep Jadhav
RACE CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
8.15pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
9.50pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
if you go
The flights
Emirates fly direct from Dubai to Houston, Texas, where United have direct flights to Managua. Alternatively, from October, Iberia will offer connections from Madrid, which can be reached by both Etihad from Abu Dhabi and Emirates from Dubai.
The trip
Geodyssey’s (Geodyssey.co.uk) 15-night Nicaragua Odyssey visits the colonial cities of Leon and Granada, lively country villages, the lake island of Ometepe and a stunning array of landscapes, with wildlife, history, creative crafts and more. From Dh18,500 per person, based on two sharing, including transfers and tours but excluding international flights. For more information, visit visitnicaragua.us.
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Profile
Company name: Marefa Digital
Based: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
Number of employees: seven
Sector: e-learning
Funding stage: Pre-seed funding of Dh1.5m in 2017 and an initial seed round of Dh2m in 2019
Investors: Friends and family
