If you're bracing yourself for another year of grim financial news, take heart. The world's banking industry has just moved into a bright, new era of safety and stability.
Well, that at least is the idea behind the long-heralded launch last week of the Third Basel Accord. Named after the Swiss-based Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, set up in 1974 by various international central banks, "Basel III" is designed to stop financial institutions taking unacceptable risks and trashing the world's economy when they go bad. But the mathematics behind its financial engineering could be its undoing.
Basel III aims to do this by demanding that banks have the means to clean up their own mess, rather than dumping it on taxpayers.
Needless to say, this laudable aim has sparked huge controversy.
Critics of Basel III say the demand that banks triple the size of their financial "air bags" has delayed the end of the global recession while they build up their capital reserves.
Meanwhile, banks have warned that being forced to hoard capital rather than punt it in the markets will force up charges to clients.
Sure enough, many countries - including the US and the whole of the EU - have already fallen at the first hurdle, failing to meet the January 1 deadline for the introduction of Basel III.
Still, the pain must surely be borne if security and stability are to return to the banking sector. But will Basel III achieve this?
To those unfamiliar with the technicalities of financial regulation, the new rules certainly look impressive, with all their arcane terminology and mathematics.
But to anyone remotely familiar with the origins of the global financial crisis, this complexity alone is grounds for concern.
The very name Basel III reflects the fact that the new regulations are simply the latest attempt to plug gaps in the previous two incarnations. Yet all these patches, upgrades and makeovers would not have been necessary had banks not proved so adept at getting around the last lot.
And their motivation for doing the same with Basel III remains intact, because the way to make big money is to take big risks.
The architects of the new regulations do not deny this fact of financial life; they want to ensure that the risks are balanced by the means to cope with the consequences.
Ironically, that simple aim is the cause of all the complexity, as a morass of arcane mathematics is seen as the best way to identify and control those risks.
But dig deeper into the regulations and another irony hoves into view. By trying to tackle the sources of risk that caused the global financial crisis, Basel III drives banks to seek other, even less well understood, forms of risk in their quest for profits.
And when they do this, the "rocket scientists" working at banks have a habit of using mathematical ideas, which, for all their apparent sophistication, are hopelessly simplistic.
You don't need any mathematical expertise to see what's wrong with these ideas - though a PhD is handy for bamboozling others into taking them seriously.
Take the case of the so-called Gaussian copula. Don't be intimidated by the name; it's just the combination of the name of a German mathematician famed for his work on chance events, plus the Latin word for something that connects two things together (not to be confused with a cupola, which is a dome-like roof).
In the financial world, the Gaussian copula was seen as the way to appease regulators over a key problem: estimating the risk of entire sets of assets going bad at the same time.
Once upon a time, everything had been nice and simple. An asset, such as a bond, paid interest at a rate tied to the risk of it never paying out: the higher the risk, the higher the interest offered.
Historical records could give a handle on the likely risk of that happening, from close to zero for government "gilts" to something much higher for corporate bonds.
But in their ceaseless search for new revenue streams, banks created new types of assets by pooling assets such as mortgages.
Working out the appropriate interest rate - and keeping regulators happy - demanded estimates of the risk involved.
The problem was that all the ingredients had their own risk figures. Worse still, these risk figures were obviously not independent: during a recession, mortgages start going sour across the board.
The Gaussian copula seemed to offer a way of dealing with all this. Fed with the risk figures for each asset, plus a measure of how connected ("correlated") they are, it spat out the risk of an entire pool of the assets going bad.
All very impressive - as long as the figures fed in are reliable. And this is where non-mathematicians will smell a rat. Surely the level of "correlation" varies over time, adding uncertainty to the final result?
Indeed it does, and some financial experts warned of this long before the global financial crisis hit.
Then there's the problem of sourcing reliable risk figures for each individual asset. Lacking historical records, financial institutions guesstimated them - and got them hopelessly wrong.
Of course, the disastrous reliance on the Gaussian cupola is now well recognised among bankers and regulators alike - earning it the moniker of "the formula that killed Wall Street". But what hasn't changed is the determination of banks to find new sources of revenue - not least to make up for profits lost to all that regulation.
So ignore the talk of Basel III ushering in a new era of financial propriety. Chances are it will go the way of its predecessors, undermined by bonus-hungry PhDs wielding weapons of mass bamboozlement.
Robert Matthews is visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
%3Cp%3EFirst%20ODI%20-%20Sunday%2C%20June%204%20%0D%3Cbr%3ESecond%20ODI%20-%20Tuesday%2C%20June%206%20%0D%3Cbr%3EThird%20ODI%20-%20Friday%2C%20June%209%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMatches%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Stadium.%20All%20games%20start%20at%204.30pm%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Adithya%20Shetty%2C%20Ali%20Naseer%2C%20Ansh%20Tandon%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Ethan%20D%E2%80%99Souza%2C%20Fahad%20Nawaz%2C%20Jonathan%20Figy%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Lovepreet%20Singh%2C%20Matiullah%2C%20Mohammed%20Faraazuddin%2C%20Muhammad%20Jawadullah%2C%20Rameez%20Shahzad%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Sanchit%20Sharma%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreators%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAri%20Katcher%2C%20Ryan%20Welch%2C%20Ramy%20Youssef%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERamy%20Youssef%2C%20Amr%20Waked%2C%20Mohammed%20Amer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
BIG SPENDERS
Premier League clubs spent £230 million (Dh1.15 billion) on January transfers, the second-highest total for the mid-season window, the Sports Business Group at Deloitte said in a report.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
england euro squad
Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Man Utd), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Defenders: John Stones (Man City), Luke Shaw (Man Utd), Harry Maguire (Man Utd), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Man City), Tyrone Mings (Aston Villa), Reece James (Chelsea), Conor Coady (Wolves), Ben Chilwell (Chelsea), Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid)
Midfielders: Mason Mount (Chelsea), Declan Rice (West Ham), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund), Kalvin Phillips (Leeds)
Forwards: Harry Kane (Tottenham), Marcus Rashford (Man Utd), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Phil Foden (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
The five pillars of Islam
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
Results
Stage Two:
1. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 04:20:45
2. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates
4. Olav Kooij (NED) Jumbo-Visma
5. Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
General Classification:
1. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin-Fenix 09:03:03
2. Dmitry Strakhov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:04
3. Mark Cavendish (GBR) QuickStep-AlphaVinyl 00:00:06
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Bora-Hansgrohe 00:00:10
5. Pascal Ackermann (GER) UAE Team Emirates 00:00:12
