When 2001: A Space Odyssey opened in movie theatres 50 years ago this month, it left audiences baffled. Its mind-bending special effects, enigmatic ending and main character – HAL, a psychotic computer – were too much to cope with. Over 200 people walked out of the first showing, and critics panned it.
Now, half a century on, 2001 is widely regarded as the greatest science fiction movie ever – and one of its major themes is about to become a real-life legal issue of global proportions. When the European Union's General Data Protection Regulations becomes law next month, companies that use computer algorithms to make big decisions about, say, giving someone financial credit will have to be able to explain why the decision was made.
European citizens will, in short, have the right to insist that companies open the "black box" and show why their algorithm turned them down. Yet in this case, the black box is a neural network and there’s currently no hope of meeting that demand.
A network of brain cells
Let's use the example of HAL – in the film, "he" is the artificial intelligence looking after the first manned space mission to Jupiter. On their journey, the crew start to suspect HAL is malfunctioning in some way – the suspicions are confirmed by mission control back on Earth.
The astronauts are instructed to disconnect HAL’s higher functions. But before they can do so, though, HAL takes action, with murderous consequences. Movie-goers never get an explanation of this behaviour, which is all the more perplexing given the computer’s stated infallibility.
While a novel by Arthur C Clarke, which came out shortly after the movie, claimed HAL had fallen prey to guilt, which was caused by the clash between "his" role as a crew member and his secret orders not to tell his colleagues the true goal of the mission. But HAL is a so-called neural network computer, a real-life type of AI and this sort of computer is programmed to act like a network of brain cells, solving problems by learning from examples.
While they have proved incredibly good at a host of tasks from facial recognition to data-mining, the technology has a big drawback: it’s impossible to be sure how a neural network comes to its decisions. And under the new measures, companies who can’t explain just this will face punitive fines.
No amount of analysis of it will reveal what’s going on inside the black box because, like a real brain, a neural network gives no clues about the actual thought-processes driving any act.
How does AI explain itself?
Under the law, a slew of current practices, like burying consent statements in small-print and pre-ticked opt-in boxes, will also no longer be lawful. And failure to comply is backed by colossal financial penalties, up to a maximum of Euro 20 million or 4 per cent of annual turnover, whichever is the larger.
Computer scientists have wrestled with this so-called explainability problem for decades, with little success. Back in the 1970s, so-called expert systems seemed to offer a solution as they were based on hard rules of logic whose conclusions could be analysed.
But during the 1990s the limited abilities and sheer effort of creating expert systems led to their losing out to neural networks, which needed only off-the-shelf computer programs plus training data with which to teach them.
For years, the sheer power of neural networks has attracted interest from companies in fields from finance and medicine to security. Now they must face the fact that, deep down, they’ve no idea what their black box are doing and there is little sign of this changing any time soon.
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One major hurdle is a phenomenon discovered by computer scientists where the better an AI is at its task, the less explicable its decisions become. The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is currently funding a series of research programmes to close the gap. The motivation is simple: without being able to explain itself, AI is never going to be fully trusted by its human creators.
For those now using AI to make money, the hope must be that computer scientists find ways of keeping them on the right side of the law.
After half a century, 2001: A Space Odyssey is still remembered for its stunning vision of the power of technology. But perhaps its greatest legacy is its warning about knowing just what is going on inside the likes of HAL.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Professor of Science at Aston University, Birmingham, UK
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
