At the conclusion of his first overseas trip as president, Barack Obama made a surprise stop in Baghdad on Tuesday. His visit comes at a time when for most Americans the war in Iraq is low among their concerns. Indeed, Mr Obama himself recently said: "if you had said to us a year ago that the least of my problems would be Iraq, which is still a pretty serious problem, I don't think anybody would have believed it." Coinciding with Mr Obama's visit there has in recent days been what the American media euphemistically refers to as an "uptick" in violence. The New York Times reported: "Another car bomb blew up in a Shiite neighborhood of Baghdad on Tuesday, and Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki issued a harshly worded statement blaming the outlawed Baath Party for a recent wave of violence. "Mr Maliki called six car bombings on Monday, which killed at least 33 people and targeted Shiite neighbourhoods, 'a gift of the disbanded Baath Party on the ill omen of its anniversary.' Tuesday was the anniversary of the founding of the Baath Party, which ruled Iraq from 1968 until Saddam Hussein was ousted by American-led forces in 2003. "Mr Maliki's criticism, which was unusually strong, called into question recent efforts his government has made to reach out to Baathists and bring them into the reconciliation process." In an interview on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, using language reminiscent of his predecessor Donald Rumsfeld in the early days of the war said: "I think what we're seeing is al Qa'eda trying sort of as a last gasp to try and reverse the progress that's been made through these attacks." Reports suggested however that the recent bombings rather than being the work of al Qa'eda may be linked to the US-allied Sunni insurgents who had earlier been enlisted in the fight against al Qa'eda. "Yesterday's attacks follow a series of arrests of ranking members of the militias - known as Awakening Councils - whom government officials branded as outlaws," The Guardian reported. "The arrests led to pitched street battles and have stirred anger among the groups, with some officials claiming they will soon be discarded despite the key role they played against al Qa'eda in 2007. A spokesman for Iraq's interior ministry said Iraqi officials had an open mind about the cause of yesterday's violence but feared it might be the start of a renewed push." At Time, Bobby Ghosh said: "Obama's Baghdad visit got off to a bad start: dust storms, common this time of year, prevented the president from making the short helicopter ride into the city. Instead, he was confined to Camp Victory, the giant US military base adjacent to the airport. At first, it seemed that Obama might even leave without actually meeting Iraqi President Jalal Talebani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - but in the end, both men agreed to travel to the military base to meet with Obama. "In the confines of Camp Victory, there could be none of the adoring public, fawning politicians and over-caffeinated media attention that attended Obama's stops in London, Strasbourg, Berlin, Prague and Istanbul. Unlike the Europeans, Iraqis saw nothing in Obama's visit to distinguish him from Bush - although there was no opportunity to see whether an Iraqi reporter would hurl a shoe at him." Ali Wyne from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an analysis appearing on Tom Ricks' Foreign Policy blog, suggested that the conventional wisdom that sees the war in Iraq as having been won due to the success of the "surge" is dubious on two grounds. "A September 2008 report by researchers at UCLA found that 'violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning.' They concluded, therefore, that 'the surge has had no observable effect, except insofar as it has helped to provide a seal of approval for a process of ethno-sectarian neighbourhood homogenisation that is now largely achieved.' That is, the surge occurred after the tinderbox that it was intended to eliminate had mostly been defused. Furthermore, according to a recent wire story, the apparent stability in Baghdad results from 'fear,' which 'keeps the peace'. "Second, there are moral considerations. Approximately five million Iraqis, or 20 per cent of the Iraqi population, have been displaced from their homes; Human Rights Watch reports that 'no structure exists to meet [their] humanitarian needs.' According to recent statistics, 88 per cent of Iraqis do not have access to electricity; 70 per cent do not have access to clean water (a new report found that 36 per cent of Baghdad's drinking water is unsafe); and 43 per cent live on less than a dollar a day. One in five Iraqi women suffers physical violence, and one in three Iraqi children is hungry. It strains credulity to suggest that victory has been achieved in Iraq even though the country's social services apparatus is dysfunctional, most Iraqis cannot access basic provisions, and the rule of fear substitutes for the rule of law." In assessing the purpose of Mr Obama's trip to Iraq, Marc Lynch asserted: "The message he's sending is the right one: American troops can not be the answer to Iraq's problems, they really are leaving, and it's now up to the Iraqis - whether things go well or they go badly... "Do I think that the war is over and that Iraq's problems have been solved? No, no, no. For years I've been pointing out the fragility of the political situation, and I've seen little to change my mind. You can see it in the crackdown on the Awakenings leaders in Fadhil and elsewhere (which highlight the coordination problems among the deeply fragmented Awakening ranks as much as they do the Maliki government's continuing suspicion and hostility). You can see it in the intense struggles between Arabs and the Kurds, and between a centralising Maliki regime and a hopelessly fragmented group of opposing factions. You can see it in the perennial gap between political agreements and their implementation, in the continuing incapacity of state institutions, in the endemic corruption and in the current budget struggles. And you can see it in the uptick in bombings and insurgency violence. No, Iraq's internal struggles and problems won't be over for a long, long time." Meanwhile, the indications are that Western news coverage from Iraq will continue to dwindle. The Kansas City Star noted: "A reduced level of reporting adds to the fog covering what comes next. While travel is less restricted than in the bad old days, far fewer Western reporters are assigned to Iraq now. The effects of more interest in the Afghan front and the economy at home, as well as declining media revenue and resources, are easily seen. "News conferences once filled large rooms with theater seating. Recently, one was held in what could have been a small break room, and the participants fit around a single table."
pwoodward@thenational.ae