WASHINGTON //As Barack Obama, the US president, prepares to release a review of American military strategy in Afghanistan, two classified intelligence reports on the situation there and in Pakistan conclude that chances of success for the US and its international allies are limited unless Pakistan takes a much more active role at its border with Afghanistan.
The intelligence assessments - the findings of which were leaked to the US media yesterday - would seem to contradict what will probably be the administration's official review, which is expected to cite progress in Afghanistan when it is made public today.
Analysts say the difference is over the extent to which the US can succeed in Afghanistan without significant Pakistani help. The US is about to extend a US$7.5 billion (Dh27.5b) civilian aid package to the country over the next three years, but relations with the country have been fragile over the past years, not least because of US drone strikes against targets in the west of the country.
And with former Pakistani leader, Pervez Musharraf warning yesterday from his self-imposed exile in the United Arab Emirates that extremism is on the rise in parts of Pakistan with Mujahideen groups gaining more public support, the strength of US relations with Pakistan are certain to be tested even further.
The passing on Monday of Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, who had developed strong ties with Pakistani leaders, also leaves a vacuum that the administration will be keen to fill.
Administration officials have said that the review will conclude that the US military surge in Afghanistan, which has formed the backbone of efforts to winding down operations by mid-2011, is beginning to show results. On Tuesday, Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said the review would find "important progress in halting the momentum of the Taliban in Afghanistan."
That also seems to be the opinion of the US military. On Saturday, Robert Gates, the US secretary of defence, said he had been surprised by the pace of progress after a trip to Afghanistan last week.
"I think we have made more progress in Kandahar faster than I expected," Mr Gates told reporters on his way back on Saturday. "(We) have moved in that area much more rapidly than I had anticipated."
On the ground, however, the violence continues. On Saturday alone, 47 people were killed in incidents across Afghanistan, including 15 civilians in a roadside bomb attack in the southern part of the country and 25 suspected Taliban fighters in the east.
On Sunday, six Nato soldiers were killed, the highest death toll for international forces in a month. These incidents come amid continued concern over the ability, not only in Afghanistan but also in Iraq, of local security forces to secure both countries ahead of any US exit.
The seemingly unabated violence would seem to bear out the findings of two classified intelligence reports, called National Intelligence Estimates, which represent the consensus view of 16 US intelligence agencies.
While both reports and the military cite progress in the security situation in Afghanistan, the intelligence reports, one on Afghanistan and one on Pakistan, conclude that for as long as Afghan fighters have safe havens in Pakistan, US chances of successfully being able to hand over security in Afghanistan to local forces by 2014 were limited.
Military officials, while agreeing that the porous border is a problem for US military efforts, have criticised the report as not taking into account recent gains and said that the army is in a better position to evaluate.
But with the CIA undertaking its biggest operation since the Vietnam War in Kabul, analysts say the intelligence services have as much on-the-ground access as the military.
Nate Hughes, Director of Military Analysis at Stratfor, a global intelligence company, said there was fundamental disagreement between the US intelligence community and the military establishment over Afghanistan. "The single largest point of disagreement [between the intelligence community and the military] is the significance of the problems that Pakistan presents for the US and Afghanistan and the weight that is given in the analysis."
The intelligence community, said Mr Hughes, was warning that "success is really not assured and we are not getting the cooperation from Pakistan that we need. The military is saying, 'we are making progress. We are pursuing a strategy we believe can ultimately succeed'. It's not just a question of emphasis, because it goes to the heart of whether what the US is trying to achieve is achievable."
Such success may best be measured in non-military terms, suggested Mr Hughes. The ability of the US to withdraw by 2014, after 13 years, far longer than US military involvement in Vietnam, will come down to the strength of the Afghan state and its ability to provide services and to govern.
The Taliban was able to come to power in Afghanistan partly because it demonstrated an ability to impose order that had been long lost in the chaos in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal. If, by 2014, the Afghan government can demonstrate a similar ability to govern, Afghans may not welcome the return of the Taliban.
That will take time, however, and all depends on the security situation on the ground.
"If things don't look like they have made much progress seven months from now, it's going to re-open the issue and the 2014 date may not look as secure as now," said Marvin Weinbaum, a former Afghanistan and Pakistan analyst at the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the US State Department and now a scholar with the Middle East Institute.
For now, however, said Mr Weinbaum, the administration will look for more time to pursue its present policy.
"We've only had the full contingent of forces, civilian and military, in place for a couple of months, so the argument will be that we have to give it a chance."
okarmi@thenational.ae
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The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
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Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
Red Sparrow
Dir: Francis Lawrence
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Joel Egerton, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons
Three stars
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
HAJJAN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Abu%20Bakr%20Shawky%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3EStarring%3A%20Omar%20Alatawi%2C%20Tulin%20Essam%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al-Hasawi%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Shahi
Emirate: Sharjah – Khor Fakkan
Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
Favourite activities: Bungee jumping
Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
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Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (D) 2,200m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Arrogate's winning run
1. Maiden Special Weight, Santa Anita Park, June 5, 2016
2. Allowance Optional Claiming, Santa Anita Park, June 24, 2016
3. Allowance Optional Claiming, Del Mar, August 4, 2016
4. Travers Stakes, Saratoga, August 27, 2016
5. Breeders' Cup Classic, Santa Anita Park, November 5, 2016
6. Pegasus World Cup, Gulfstream Park, January 28, 2017
7. Dubai World Cup, Meydan Racecourse, March 25, 2017
