Inside the Syrian suburb of protest



DAMASCUS // The first protest in Hajar Aswad, a tough, working-class district in southern Damascus, was small, brief and peaceful. But that was five weeks ago. Now the neighbourhood is a tinderbox near the heart of Syria's ancient capital.

In Hajar Aswad - its name means "Black Stone" - civilians have been shot dead, a formerly pro-regime cleric is now stoking an anti-government uprising, and long- simmering sectarian tensions are exploding to the surface, as life-long neighbours become enemies overnight and tribes get drawn into a growing conflict.

The escalation, as recounted by local residents, provides both an insight into the anatomy of Syria's turmoil and a warning of what may lie ahead.

It was on March 18 that the first four protesters were gunned down by security forces in Deraa, 100 kilometres south of Damascus, marking the start of the Syrian uprising. Immediately afterwards, a few dozen young men held a demonstration of solidarity in Hajar Aswad.

Thousands of Nazaheen - members of historically Bedouin tribes displaced from the Golan Heights by Syria's war with Israel - live in the neighbourhood, as do members of Hourani tribes from Deraa itself. Mixed in are thousands of settled Palestinian refugees and urban residents from minority communities, including Alawites, who dominate Syria's ruling elite.

Local police decided not to openly confront that initial protest and, after a short time, the demonstrators went home.

In Deraa the bloodshed quickly worsened throughout March, the city becoming a focal point for growing anti-government sentiment. In Hajar Aswad, the atmosphere was more stable. There were protests, but no violence. Many residents are government employees and the neighbourhood is known for providing large numbers of the hard-edged, rank-and-file security officers working the Syrian capital.

But with each passing week, the numbers taking part in the protests grew: first dozens, then more than 50, then hundreds. Last Friday, thousands took to the streets.

It was also Friday that following afternoon prayers, Hajar Aswad was firmly plunged into the centre of this country's crisis, its people adding their blood to that of some 100 Syrians, shot and killed in a single day nationwide as part of a government crackdown.

To date, more than 450 civilians have been killed. As with previous Fridays, the protest started peacefully, with a crowd marching to the district police station. There, according to witnesses, a middle-aged man picked up a rock and threw it at police, other protesters soon following his lead.

The police responded with warning shots aimed harmlessly into the air and used tear gas, breaking up the gathering without anyone being hurt. The crowd moved away.

An hour later, busloads of heavily armed plainclothes security units from outside of Hajar Aswad arrived and, according to residents, immediately took aggressive action, making arrests and shooting close to the demonstrators.

Angered, the protesters marched to local headquarters of the ruling Baath Party, where some began to tear down pictures of President Bashar al Assad. Immediately, residents said, the security forces shot directly into the crowds with live ammunition. Some 50 people were wounded and at least six more killed, among them a 17-year-old high school student named Yaman, the son of a leading local cleric, Abu Bilal.

The previous Friday, in his sermon, Abu Bilal had delivered an hour-and-a-half long speech in the Rahman mosque, telling residents to keep faith with the government, insisting their president would deliver political reforms and that protests were unnecessary. That changed with his son's death. "We heard them calling over the mosque loudspeakers that someone from the Bahaterah tribe had been killed, then there were more announcements, more dead.

People from other tribes, the Hawajeh and Jaatheen," one Hajar Aswad resident said on condition of anonymity, "Then we heard them broadcasting, over and over again, 'We want the downfall of the regime'." As the call from the mosque sounded, more people poured into the streets, rallying to the support of their tribes and fallen neighbours. "It was incredible, there were thousands of men, women and children joining in," one resident recalled. "I've never seen anything like it. There was no fear.

There were teenage boys baring their chests in front of the security. They were willing to die. They were proud to die." As anger swelled, according to a respected member of a leading local family who sympathises with the protesters, government forces themselves came under rifle fire.

"The protests had been peaceful, but after the security killed people, there was fury," he said. "One household in Hajar had weapons and they started to use them."

By the evening, the streets were effectively under control of residents - some by this point armed with metal poles and wooden clubs - with security forces pulled back and surrounding the area. Syria's uprising has been defined by a cycle of protests, shootings and then funerals at which more demonstrators are killed, leading to further rebellion. Hajar Aswad is no different.

After the bloody Friday, there were funerals on Saturday and more violence. At least one more civilian was shot dead. By that time a threatening sectarian edge had developed, with members of the Sunni Muslim tribes, a majority in Hajar Aswad, adamant that three local Alawite families had encouraged security units to set up sniper positions on their roofs. Fearing for their lives, the families fled, returning to the coastal region near Latakia, the Alawites' ancestral lands.

On Sunday, the day after the funerals, leading tribal figures were trying to hold back an angry mob that wanted to burn the Alawite families' properties. "We don't want that to happen, but there's only so much we can do to stop it," said one tribal member, involved at the time in mediation. "We told them [the Alawites] if they want to come back to collect their belongings, they must tell the tribe leaders first so we can escort them in safely, otherwise it will be dangerous for them."

The tribal negotiator, a secular, well-educated man, said he was "dismayed" to see sectarianism flare up. "These people have lived as neighbours in Hajar for 30 years, and now it has come to this, brothers turning against brothers."

Throughout this week, ahead of today's expected protests, tensions continued to simmer as residents talked of tribal customs of martyrdom and revenge "Now the women are pushing their sons to go out in the streets to demonstrate," said a male resident in his 30s. "They talk about it - 'Why don't I have any martyrs in my family?' - to shame the men into going out. Those with martyrs or injuries from the protests boast about their sacrifices."

There has been no formal effort to defuse tensions with the authorities, community leaders said. "There are no lines of communication with the government," said one supporter of the protesters. "It's not because we don't want to come up with a solution to stop more bloodshed. It's because there are no clear decision makers."

Syria's authorities say that as they have made political reforms to meet protesters' legitimate demands, demonstrations have now been hijacked by Islamist militants trying to mount an insurrection. Dozens of security personnel have been killed and injured. The government also insists that it is all that stands between the country and a sectarian civil war.

On Monday, tanks and infantry swept into Deraa to crush the revolt once and for all, while a wave of house raids and arrests by security forces have taken place in Douma, Homs and other protest areas. Protesters in Hajar Aswad have no coherent political strategy, residents admitted.

"People are calling for regime change, but it's true that we have no idea what will happen if that succeeds," said one. "Especially the young, they are just generally angry. They have no prospects, they're poor, they are mistreated by the security, they don't feel they have anything to lose."

Today it will become clear whether Hajar Aswad has been cowed by government force, or if it will once again take to the streets. "I know these people," said one resident, himself from a tribal background. "They will not walk away. They believe in revenge, they will stand together, it's their custom, and it might be violent." "Nobody know what's going to happen from now on," said another resident of Hajar Aswad.

"But if you ask me, this isn't going to go away now. It could all go into chaos. No one is in control anymore."

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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