Infectious disease experts have hailed Israel’s Covid-19 declining case rates as evidence that vaccination is working – and have predicted that other countries, including the UAE, will see similar positive effects soon.
Israel had one of the world's highest coronavirus vaccination rates when adjusted for population size. Patterns of illness there can provide an early glimpse of what to expect elsewhere.
Experts say the results in Israel, which began its vaccination drive on December 19, also show that a single vaccine dose is effective at reducing illness.
About nine in 10 people over the age of 60 in Israel have been vaccinated with the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot.
Among this group, infections fell 41 per cent and admissions to hospital dropped 31 per cent after mid-January, according to Israeli health ministry figures reported in the journal Nature.
Over the same time period, there was only a 12 per cent fall in cases and five per cent fall in admissions to hospital among those under 60, of whom about three in ten have been vaccinated. The over-60s are also showing a faster drop than younger people in the number of critically ill patients.
The difference between the age groups is crucial in highlighting the effects of vaccination, as it teases out the influence of the country’s third national lockdown, which began in January.
Prof Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases researcher at the University of East Anglia in the UK, said the figures from Israel in the over 60s when compared to younger age groups were "a really clear signal" of "a fairly sustained decline in hospitalisations".
"At about four weeks after the start of the vaccination drive, when actually most people will only have had a single dose, they're beginning to see an effect," he said.
The drop in hospital admissions in Israel was happening, he said, “too soon” for it to have been the result only of people having had both the first and second doses.
Reports indicate that the effects of vaccination in Israel were actually seen later than some analysts had forecast, because the arrival of more transmissible variants created an upward pressure on case numbers.
Israel is one of the highest performing countries in vaccinating residents, with more than 69 shots per 100 people.
The UAE, now in first place for the number of injections per 100 residents, could be among the next countries to see an impact. Case numbers in the Emirates may already have peaked, according to official figures, although death rates, which typically lag several weeks behind, have yet to show clear signs of falling.
Chile is in third place globally in terms of vaccinations, while the UK is fourth, with about 20 shots per 100 people.
The effect of vaccinations on hospital admissions in the UK could begin from the middle of this month, suggested Prof Hunter.
“Between the 15th and 22nd of February is probably around the time we’re likely to see some impact of our vaccination programme,” he said, referring to previously released forecasts from a group of analysts, the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group.
Separate findings have already suggested that vaccinated healthcare workers in the UK may be less likely to test positive for coronavirus, which mirrors results identified in the Israeli population in January.
The effects of inoculations on admissions to hospital will take several weeks to kick in, according to Dr Andrew Freedman, an associate professor and infectious diseases specialist at Cardiff University in the UK.
“There’s a lag between vaccination and the development of significant protection of two to three weeks, and then a lag of between two and three weeks between someone getting infected and being admitted to hospital,” he said.
“Certainly [in Israel] they vaccinated a large proportion of their population … I think they would be the first to see that.
"That’s what I would expect if the vaccines work in a way the trials suggest they do.”
He cautioned that in the UK it may be difficult to determine what effect vaccination has on hospital admission rates as there is already a decline in case numbers because of the country's lockdown.
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Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Expert input
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
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Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
