Coronavirus: stark lessons must be learnt as delays prove fatal


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With new cases emerging at a rate of more than 200,000 each day and lockdowns being re-imposed, the coronavirus pandemic is not over.

It is also clear that its impact has varied hugely, with some rich nations hit far harder than poorer neighbours.

Tentative explanations for this situation from comparisons of how countries responded to the viral threat are beginning to emerge.

Tying them together is a phenomenon which repeatedly caught governments out – with tragic results.

Scientists gave it the unremarkable name of non-linearity, but its power is anything but unremarkable.

It means that small effects do not always have small consequences. We have all experienced non-linearity in everyday life – such as sleeping through an alarm call. Getting out of bed 15 minutes late could mean we miss a crucial meeting  – with long-term consequences for our careers.

Now nations are witnessing the consequences of what were, at first glance, slight errors in their response to the pandemic.

Nowhere demonstrates this more clearly than the United Kingdom. In mid-March, a week after the country’s first recorded death from the disease, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that unless action was taken “cases could double every five to six days”.

Even at the time, that seemed too slow – members of the public said official figures suggested a doubling time of around three days.

It later emerged the government's figure was based not on data from the UK but from Wuhan, the city in central China where the outbreak was first reported. Analysis showed that the “armchair experts” were closer to the truth and, on March 23, Mr Johnson announced an immediate lockdown.

The debacle had consequences beyond embarrassment for government advisers. A pandemic is the quintessential non-linear phenomenon. One infected person passes the virus to several others. After a few days of incubation and contact with others, each of them infects several more people – an effect which gives the so-called reproduction number "R".

The result is exponential growth. If R equals 3, this means the number of infected people grows as powers of 3 – that is 9, 27, 81, 243 and so on – a rate of growth which can quickly engulf a nation.

To end the pandemic, R must be brought below 1. But its non-linear effect means even a short delay in taking action can vastly increase the death-toll.

In the case of the UK, where case numbers were doubling every three to four days, the mathematics of exponential growth showed that the epidemic roughly quadrupled in size every week.

And, crucially, that four-fold increase remains “baked in” for the rest of the epidemic. In other words,  one week of delay keeps the numbers of cases four times higher than they need have been, week in, week out until the epidemic ends.

Put another way, as much as 75 per cent of the UK’s current toll of 45,000 deaths – among the worst per capita in the world – could have been avoided.

It is a lesson in the power of non-linearity underlined by the experience of other countries which have fared much better.

Vietnam, which borders China, had its first case of Covid-19 – a man visiting from Wuhan – on January 23. The government put its pandemic response plans into action the next day.  Districts were put into strict lockdown, along with mass testing of both the sick and healthy.

Seen by some at the time as an over-reaction, the rapid response led to Vietnam having fewer than 400 cases, and not a single death.

In general, Asian countries – including China – have demonstrated the effectiveness of speed when facing the non-linear threat of epidemics.

But there is one key exception: Japan. It, too, has achieved a toll of fewer than 1,000 deaths – a per capita rate 80 times below that of the UK – and despite having a more elderly and vulnerable demographic.

Yet this success is perplexing given that Japan’s response has been far less draconian than some of its neighbours. Plans to tackle the virus only took shape in late February, and the lockdown policy amounted to little more than a polite request. Mass testing has never been carried out there.

But Dr Tomoya Saito, director of the crisis management team at Japan’s National Institute of Public Health, highlighted three key features of the nation's response.

First, the population has a long tradition of wearing face masks – now regarded a simple means of keeping infection rates low.

Second, the country has a well-established track-and-trace system for contacting and isolating infected people to prevent further spread.

Finally, while shunning blanket lockdowns, the government has advised the public to avoid the Three Cs: closed, crowded spaces with close contact. Studies early in the epidemic revealed these to be prime culprits for outbreaks.

In short, there are multiple reasons for Japan’s success in dealing with the epidemic with relatively minor upheaval.

And that highlights the flip-side of non-linearity. By amplifying small effects, it can turn seemingly minor countermeasures into major victories against the virus.

This holds important lessons not just for future pandemics, but for the one now engulfing the world.

Six months after the virus first emerged in China, scientists are still arguing over the effectiveness of face masks, levels of social distancing, and other measures like antiseptic gargling.

Recent research has shown, however, that the non-linear nature of epidemics can turn modest benefit into potential game-changers – especially after lockdowns are lifted.

There are now calls for a global coalition to be set up to investigate this multi-pronged strategy as a matter of urgency.

Governments around the world need to take this call seriously, because the biggest lesson of the pandemic so far is that every second counts.

Robert Matthews is visiting professor of science at Aston University, Birmingham, UK

The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X

Price, as tested: Dh84,000

Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo

Transmission: Six-speed auto

Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm

Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces

 

  • Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
  • Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
  • Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
  • Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
  • Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
While you're here

Michael Young: Where is Lebanon headed?

Kareem Shaheen: I owe everything to Beirut

Raghida Dergham: We have to bounce back

EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

You Were Never Really Here

Director: Lynne Ramsay

Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov

Four stars

Global Fungi Facts

• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil

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PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

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%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EFatigue%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3Enumbness%20and%20tingling%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ELoss%20of%20balance%20and%20dizziness%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStiffness%20or%20spasms%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETremor%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPain%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBladder%20problems%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBowel%20trouble%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVision%20problems%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EProblems%20with%20memory%20and%20thinking%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Cry Macho

Director: Clint Eastwood

Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam

Rating:**

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs

Engine: 5.2-litre V10

Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm

Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm

Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto

Price: From Dh1 million

On sale: Q3 or Q4 2022 

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre, 4-cylinder turbo

Transmission: CVT

Power: 170bhp

Torque: 220Nm

Price: Dh98,900

Results

Stage three:

1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-43

2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s

3. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s

4. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s

5. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s

6. Mikkel Bjerg (DEN) UAE-Team Emirates, at 24s

General Classification:

1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-13-02

2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s

3. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin Fenix, at 12s

4. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s

5. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s

6. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s

Know before you go
  • Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
  • If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
  • By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
  • Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
  • Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.

 

Gulf rugby

Who’s won what so far in 2018/19

Western Clubs Champions League: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Dubai Hurricanes
West Asia Premiership: Bahrain

What’s left

UAE Conference

March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Hurricanes II v Al Ain Amblers, Jebel Ali Dragons II v Dubai Tigers

March 29, final

UAE Premiership

March 22, play-offs: 
Dubai Exiles v Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Hurricanes

March 29, final

Company%20profile
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LA LIGA FIXTURES

Friday (UAE kick-off times)

Real Sociedad v Leganes (midnight)

Saturday

Alaves v Real Valladolid (4pm)

Valencia v Granada (7pm)

Eibar v Real Madrid (9.30pm)

Barcelona v Celta Vigo (midnight)

Sunday

Real Mallorca v Villarreal (3pm)

Athletic Bilbao v Levante (5pm)

Atletico Madrid v Espanyol (7pm)

Getafe v Osasuna (9.30pm)

Real Betis v Sevilla (midnight)

Business Insights
  • Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
  • The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
UAE%20set%20for%20Scotland%20series
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Short-term let permits explained

Homeowners and tenants are allowed to list their properties for rental by registering through the Dubai Tourism website to obtain a permit.

Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.

There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.

Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.

FINAL LEADERBOARD

1. Jordan Spieth (USA) 65 69 65 69 - 12-under-par
2. Matt Kuchar (USA) 65 71 66 69 - 9-under
3. Li Haotong (CHN) 69 73 69 63 - 6-under
T4. Rory McIlroy (NIR) 71 68 69 67 - 5-under
T4. Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP) 67 73 67 68 - 5-under
T6. Marc Leishman (AUS) 69 76 66 65 - 4-under
T6. Matthew Southgate (ENG) 72 72 67 65 - 4-under
T6. Brooks Koepka (USA) 65 72 68 71 - 4-under
T6. Branden Grace (RSA) 70 74 62 70 - 4-under
T6. Alexander Noren (SWE)  68 72 69 67 - 4-under