The UAE can avoid a second wave of the coronavirus if social distancing and measures to control the entry of infectious individuals into the country are maintained, a senior healthcare executive said.
Artificial intelligence modelling highlighted the possibility of a rise in cases over winter, but Dr Gareth Goodier, chief executive of Abu Dhabi Health Services Company (Seha), said this could be averted.
For the past few months, AI-based forecasts about how the pandemic will play out in the Emirates have been provided to Seha, which owns and operates public hospitals in Abu Dhabi, by a UK-based company, Draper & Dash.
"Our numbers are very small at the moment and controllable," Dr Goodier told The National. "The constraints on travel are sensible. Anybody coming back from an overseas trip now is tested and monitored and, if they're not clear, has to go into quarantine.
“If that’s maintained, and that’s in the gift of the government, I don’t think we’ll have much of an upsurge at all.”
[The AI modelling] was pretty spot on in terms of timing and volume, within a few days. It enabled us to plan for all of the resources required
Draper & Dash’s AI-based model combines local data with information on how the pandemic is developing globally. The company has also been producing forecasts for the UK’s National Health Service.
Predicting a second wave was “much more difficult than managing the first phase”, said Dr Goodier, because it was not just a question of the coronavirus in isolation. The effect of influenza season – which peaks in the winter – could be important, too.
Evidence so far from Australia, which is in the middle of its winter, is that social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing and other precautions have meant that there is much less winter flu than normal, which bodes well for the UAE in winter.
Orlando Agrippa, Draper & Dash’s chief executive, said modelling suggested the UK and UAE could see an increase in cases over winter, but not on the scale of the initial upsurge, which peaked in April and May in the Emirates.
“We don’t think the second wave will be as big as the first wave," said Mr Agrippa. He expects "a meaningful rise in cases" but public awareness will go far in stemming the spread.
“When you combine an infection and disease like Covid with seasonal flu, where thousands of people die each year, we believe we’ll have a challenging mix of things to deal with.
“We’re predicting that for both the UK and Abu Dhabi from autumn. We believe Abu Dhabi will be behind the UK," he said.
An advantage that the UAE has compared to some other countries is the relatively modest population size. If control measures have to be introduced, Mr Agrippa said the authorities have “a lot more ability to move the lever” than governments in some other nations.
At present, the UAE has recorded almost 60,000 coronavirus cases and 347 deaths from the pandemic.
Seha’s efforts to deal with the crisis have included building field hospitals in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Dubai, plus the running of 12 hospitals in Abu Dhabi, dozens of outpatient clinics and a number of drive-through testing centres across the nation.
To produce the forecasts, information from other nations of particular relevance to the UAE were used.
For example, analysing how the pandemic has played out among Singapore’s migrant workers has offered clues as to how it will develop in the UAE.
Seha has also received forecasts from the Department of Health Abu Dhabi but Dr Goodier said the Draper & Dash model had proved the most accurate.
“It was pretty spot on in terms of timing and volume, within a few days,” he said. “It enabled us to plan for all of the resources required. Seha has played a big role and we took on something like 48 extra facilities.”
Forecasts have been especially useful in planning the number of acute beds that may be needed. Should there be a second wave, Dr Goodier said Seha could provide up to 1,000 critical care beds, compared to about 600 in the first wave of the pandemic.
Super heroes
Iron Man
Reduced risk of dementia
Alcohol consumption could be an issue
Hulk
Cardiac disease, stroke and dementia from high heart rate
Spider-Man
Agility reduces risk of falls
Increased risk of obesity and mental health issues
Black Panther
Vegetarian diet reduces obesity
Unknown risks of potion drinking
Black Widow
Childhood traumas increase risk of mental illnesses
Thor
He's a god
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Results
2.30pm: Expo 2020 Dubai – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Barakka, Ray Dawson (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
3.05pm: Now Or Never – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: One Idea, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.40pm: This Is Our Time – Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Perfect Balance, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Visit Expo 2020 – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Kaheall, Richard Mullen, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.50pm: The World In One Place – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1.900m; Winner: Castlebar, Adrie de Vries, Helal Al Alawi
5.25pm: Vision – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Al Wasl Plaza – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Jadwal, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
Read more about the coronavirus
The biog
Name: Timothy Husband
Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
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Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
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Hurricanes 31-31 Lions
Wellington Hurricanes:
Tries: Gibbins, Laumape, Goosen, Fifita tries, Barrett
Conversions: Barrett (4)
Penalties: Barrett
British & Irish Lions:
Tries: Seymour (2), North
Conversions: Biggar (2)
Penalties: Biggar (4)
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ipaf in numbers
Established: 2008
Prize money: $50,000 (Dh183,650) for winners and $10,000 for those on the shortlist.
Winning novels: 13
Shortlisted novels: 66
Longlisted novels: 111
Total number of novels submitted: 1,780
Novels translated internationally: 66
FIGHT CARD
1. Featherweight 66kg
Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg
Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg
Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg
Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg
Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg
Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg
Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg
Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)
9. Featherweight 66kg
Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
