Hard questions should Iran-US diplomacy fail



Diplomacy requires compromises that rarely satisfy either side completely. And the more nations that get involved, the less likely it is that the perfect solution will be found. The result is often more of a tangled mess than effective policy. The protracted brouhaha over Iran's nuclear programme is a prime case in point. Should Iran obtain nuclear weapons, the potential consequences would probably affect the Gulf nations more than any other, even including Israel. The regional shift in power could force difficult decisions: a drastic expansion of the Arab Gulf states' military capabilities and/or requesting a nuclear security umbrella from the US. Neither is an ideal scenario. The UAE designs to be a bridge between the East and West, not to take sides in a game of nuclearised power politics.

But it is not the Gulf that is leading the diplomatic charge towards transparency regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions. As the most powerful nation in the world, the US is the natural choice, but it has had limited success. Barack Obama had promised an outstretched hand if Iran would unclench its fist, but Tehran hasn't relaxed its fighting stance. With the carrot approach having failed him, Mr Obama has been trying to garner enough votes in the UN Security Council for a new round of sanctions.

The right sanctions regime could cripple Iran's economy and force Tehran to divert limited funds from its nuclear programme towards keeping food on people's tables and warming their homes. In all likelihood, however, that will not happen. The US needs the support of Russia and China to implement tough sanctions, and that support is highly unlikely. The best it can probably hope for is support from Russia for symbolic sanctions, and an abstention from China that would allow the sanctions to pass.

Meanwhile, the US has seemingly taken a military strike out of the diplomatic equation. The military solution would wreak untold havoc on the region, but disavowing the use of force removes a source of leverage, and with such an intransigent nation you need all the leverage you can get. At this point it appears that Washington may be preparing to live with the consequences of a nuclear Iran. If Iran is not overtly threatened with an attack, then it has less reason to bridge the gap between nuclear weapons capability and a nuclear weapons arsenal.

Yet, if the world is ultimately not prepared to do what is necessary to halt Iran's nuclear programme through strong sanctions, diplomacy or, in the last resort, force, another question remains: what was the point of this exercise?

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

%3Cp%3EMATA%0D%3Cbr%3EArtist%3A%20M.I.A%0D%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Island%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Details

Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny

Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

US%20federal%20gun%20reform%20since%20Sandy%20Hook
%3Cp%3E-%20April%2017%2C%202013%3A%20A%20bipartisan-drafted%20bill%20to%20expand%20background%20checks%20and%20ban%20assault%20weapons%20fails%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20July%202015%3A%20Bill%20to%20require%20background%20checks%20for%20all%20gun%20sales%20is%20introduced%20in%20House%20of%20Representatives.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2012%2C%202016%3A%20Orlando%20shooting.%20Barack%20Obama%20calls%20on%20Congress%20to%20renew%20law%20prohibiting%20sale%20of%20assault-style%20weapons%20and%20high-capacity%20magazines.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20October%201%2C%202017%3A%20Las%20Vegas%20shooting.%20US%20lawmakers%20call%20for%20banning%20bump-fire%20stocks%2C%20and%20some%20renew%20call%20for%20assault%20weapons%20ban.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20February%2014%2C%202018%3A%20Seventeen%20pupils%20are%20killed%20and%2017%20are%20wounded%20during%20a%20mass%20shooting%20in%20Parkland%2C%20Florida.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20December%2018%2C%202018%3A%20Donald%20Trump%20announces%20a%20ban%20on%20bump-fire%20stocks.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20August%202019%3A%20US%20House%20passes%20law%20expanding%20background%20checks.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20April%2011%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20announces%20measures%20to%20crack%20down%20on%20hard-to-trace%20'ghost%20guns'.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20May%2024%2C%202022%3A%20Nineteen%20children%20and%20two%20teachers%20are%20killed%20at%20an%20elementary%20school%20in%20Uvalde%2C%20Texas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2025%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20first%20federal%20gun-control%20bill%20in%20decades.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.