A version of this article first appeared in March 2020
Every time it rains in the UAE, some residents are quick to speculate that the wet weather was caused by the country’s cloud-seeding programme.
But even academics who have been working on rain-enhancement techniques for years admit that they still do not fully understand how best to encourage the heavens to open.
The UAE has recently been hit by a barrage of bad weather, with downpours seen in Al Ain, Baniyas and the east coast in Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah, while there was rain in Abu Dhabi and flooding in Ghantoot at the beginning of July.
What is cloud seeding?
First of all, it is not nearly as simple as sending up planes to inject chemicals into clouds.
“Cloud seeding is a very complicated operation that needs a lot of scientific investigation to really understand the fundamentals of it,” said Lulin Xue, chief scientist at the Hua Xin Chuang Zhi Science and Technology group in China, who is carrying out research on cloud seeding in the UAE.
“Especially for the convective cloud [formed by the process of warmer air rising], the cloud itself is very dynamic, which means if you change certain things of the cloud, it can have consequences that are very complicated to understand and using observation itself, it’s very difficult to quantify these effects.
“We try to use experiments both in the laboratory and in models to really understand what's going on and then we can translate that knowledge into operation and help the UAE's cloud seeding.”
How effective is cloud seeding?
One of the major problems, Mr Lulin said, is that no two clouds are the same.
Clouds that form over mountains are different from those that appear over low-lying areas, meaning they react differently to cloud-seeding efforts.
The size of the seeding particles — usually consisting of salt crystals — can have an effect on rainfall, while the quantity of the material also has a bearing.
Delivering more material into clouds, however, does not necessarily translate into more rain.
In fact, the whole process can backfire, meaning less rain would fall than would have otherwise occurred if there had been no intervention.
Scientists are working on complicated computer simulations to better understand the optimum intervention for different cloud types.
However, they are unsure if they will ever fully master cloud seeding, not least because they have no way of knowing how much extra rain they have helped produce.
“I don't know how the technology will advance in the near future,” said Mr Lulin, who has been conducting research on rain-enhancement methods for around a decade.
“But in the foreseeable future I would say it’s very difficult to completely quantify and completely understand.”
How does cloud seeding in the UAE work?
Mr Lulin said the UAE has particularly “complicated” clouds.
“UAE clouds, when they develop, are harder to predict because you have so many components to fit in,” he said.
“If the cloud forms close to a mountain, they are static, and you can observe them more carefully.
“The moving cloud here … it's so complicated. We also have a lot of sea salt, aerosol and dust. These affect how clouds form and develop, in ways which may not be so obvious.
“So with these complications, we do need a lot more effort to understand.”
Cloud seeding has been going on in the Emirates for decades. It is hoped that within 18 months the work of Mr Lulin and others will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the process in the country.
But for now, the scientist is reluctant to put a figure on how effective the research is, or how much extra rain the programme produces.
He said storms like the ones seen in the UAE in early January, which caused widespread flooding, were not caused by cloud seeding.
“In my opinion, it is difficult for just cloud seeding alone to generate huge amounts of precipitation,” he said.
“It must be natural conditions that are suitable. Maybe cloud seeding can enhance a bit of that, but how much, we don’t know.”
Not all countries have the same problems as the UAE, which is usually arid.
Edward Graham, a meteorologist at the University of the Highlands and Islands in the UK, is based on Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis, off the north-west coast of mainland Scotland.
There, it rains three days out of every four and it is getting even wetter, for reasons that have yet to be understood.
“If you’re feeling it’s a little too dry here, a little bit too sunny, I’m certainly feeling it’s a little bit too wet in Scotland,” Dr Graham told delegates.
“We have something you want, you have something we want, so let’s do some business.”
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
The specs
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Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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Started: 2020
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2016 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2015 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)
2014 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
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Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
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Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
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Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related
Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.
Family: Wife and three children.
Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
