Heavy rain on rise in UAE with trend set to continue due to climate change


Daniel Bardsley
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Spells of heavy rain that can cause flash flooding in the UAE have become longer lasting over the past two decades, a study has found.

Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi and the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), also in the UAE capital, found these events in the southeastern Arabian peninsula “may be even more impactful in a warming world”.

However, while they create the risk of floods, such episodes also offer opportunities in a country where precipitation is limited.

In a study recently published in the journal Atmospheric Research, scientists looked at mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a weather pattern that most commonly causes severe weather in March or April.

They analysed 95 of these between 2000 and 2020, and found they were caused by particular wind patterns and moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, Arabian Gulf or Red Sea.

They looked at observational data and records from satellites, for example, and found that, over time, these events over the UAE were lasting longer.

Some of the most severe episodes happened in 2016 when there was severe flooding after more than 240mm of rain fell in Dubai, and Abu Dhabi experienced winds of nearly 80mph.

Climate change key to changing weather patterns

Dr Diana Francis believes climate change is key to the increased frequency of heavy rain in the Emirates
Dr Diana Francis believes climate change is key to the increased frequency of heavy rain in the Emirates

“We believe that global warming and climate change are likely responsible for the increase in the duration of MCSs over the study region,” said Dr Diana Francis, an author of the study.

Dr Francis, who heads the environmental and geophysical sciences laboratory at Khalifa University, said a warmer atmosphere could hold more water vapour, meaning extreme events last longer.

This ties in with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report which, Dr Francis said, “clearly identified … that there is an intensification of the global water cycle due to increased warming”.

“We would expect to see similar trends in the future with a possible additional increase in the strength of the MCSs and a resulting larger amount of rain,” said Dr Francis, who also recently identified a strengthening of a warm-weather system over the UAE called the Arabian heat low.

More rainfall to boost agriculture

While in many countries extreme weather is solely a danger to life and property, Dr Francis said arid nations such as the UAE, where many areas receive an average of less than 100mm of rain each year, should plan for benefits too.

“Rainwater storage strategies and water water evacuation plans in big cities need to be included in the country’s urban planning strategies to both avoid the damage from flooding, and benefit from the large amount of precipitation,” she said.

Cloud seeding proves successful

A cloud seeding plane prepares for another mission in the UAE. Courtesy National Centre of Meteorology
A cloud seeding plane prepares for another mission in the UAE. Courtesy National Centre of Meteorology

A separate study by NCM researchers evaluating the impact of the UAE’s cloud seeding programme has concluded that seeded areas experience an average of 23 per cent more rain.

The analysis was based on comparing rain gauge results without cloud seeding, recorded between 1981 and 2002, with those where cloud seeding took place, recorded between 2003 and 2019.

Previous studies elsewhere have indicated that cloud seeding does increase rainfall, although the question of whether it is effective is still debated.

In the new study, published in the journal Atmosphere, the NCM researchers, two of whom were also authors of the study Dr Francis was involved with, indicated their findings could influence whether cloud seeding work goes ahead in the UAE and similar areas in the future.

“The work provides new insights for assessing long-term seeding impacts and has significant implications for policy and decision-making related to cloud seeding research and operational programmes in arid regions,” they wrote.

Dr Francis said the seeding efficiency reported by the NCM researchers focused on summertime rain events linked to the development of local clouds and convection, which is the process by which heat and moisture moves vertically in the atmosphere.

The MCSs, by contrast, develop in the spring and are large-scale events associated with the global water cycle, so their formation and development cannot be affected by cloud seeding.

“However the amount of rain obtained from these systems can be increased by seeding the clouds associated with them once they reached over the UAE,” Dr Francis said.

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Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

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Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.

“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says. 

Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.

Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier. 

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"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

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Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

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• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%

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Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)

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Updated: January 08, 2023, 4:44 AM`