After four days working as an international election observer in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif, the perfect hopelessness of Afghanistan's experiment in liberal democracy dawned on me.
Now, after repeated postponements and 4,000 complaints, the results are expected to be announced at the end of October. But what I saw during the run-up to the election puts it in doubt whatever the vote tally.
One of the clearest signs came during a meeting at Mazar-i-Sharif's regional assembly, a rambling dusty building barricaded behind high walls and guarded by soldiers. Election candidates were arrayed on couches, discussing their anxieties with members of the electoral complaints commission and the security services. One of the main items up for discussion was "the buying and selling of candidates", as the official programme noted. No one batted an eyelid.
One official noted that "people come to these elections with cold hearts". He added matter of factly that candidates interested in buying off elections staff were ignoring lower-level officials and focusing on "the polling centre directors because they are the ones who dispatch the results". Local actors repeatedly told me that candidates, election officials and voters had already been bought and sold even before voters arrived at the polls. As the voting neared, Taliban affiliates confiscated voter ID cards and assassinated polling officials. On election day, hundreds of voting centres remained closed and a daylight curfew was imposed in areas under the control of Taliban shadow shura councils. It all contributed to a record low turnout (an estimated 25 per cent of registered voters), 32 dead and 95 injured. Videos shot on camera phones showed election officials stuffing ballot boxes under the gaze of complicit local policemen.
Despite condemning the elections and threatening to cut voters' fingers off, the Taliban also appeared to have infiltrated the process - a journalist seeking an appointment with Taliban members was directed to an interlocutor who worked in Mazar-i-Sharif's supposedly super-secure central ballot collection warehouse. Although corruption originated with local elites, it percolated throughout society. Many people viewed the elections as an opportunity to feed at the trough. Votes sold for anywhere between $10 and $100 (Dh367). One candidate's wealth earned him the nickname Abbas Dollari - not in the bazaars or cafes but among the electoral commission staff. The complaints commission batted away calls for investigations by claiming "insufficient evidence". In rural areas, Afghanistan's ethnic and clan-based feudal system meant that local power holders obliged residents to vote in blocs.
"We pay a salary of 50 to polling stations officials and 120 to 140 Afghanis [Dh12] to the polling centre head," an elections official said. "But of course, someone can come and offer them more. And those [candidates] who paid more will get a higher result." When I visited Turialay Reziakyar, one of the candidates present at the Mazar-i-Sharif regional council meeting, in his well-fortified compound, he told me: "I've received so many death threats that I live in fear of leaving the city to campaign in the countryside."
As with Iraq, Afghanistan's stabs at democracy are part of a larger project to create a functioning modern state built along western lines and connected to the international banking and corporate system. But the army of consultants involved in this decade-long struggle have little experience of Central Asian clan culture or Islam. Their well-padded salaries and laboriously recreated western lifestyles in Kabul have isolated them from any but the most westernised of Afghan urban society.
As hopes fade that President Hamid Karzai's corruption-riddled government can stabilise the country, a new scenario envisions the partitioning of Afghanistan into a Pashtun-dominated southern part governed by the Taliban and a Tajik-majority north hosting a significant western military presence. The idea was first floated by the former US ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill, and is reportedly gaining traction in policy making circles.
That quick-fix solution could have the side effect of further destabilising neighbour Pakistan, a country with 40 million Pashtun citizens. Already a nuclear-armed failing state, the consequences of a dismantled Pakistan would be horrible for the region. But Mr Blackwill sees potential advantages, arguing that "the spectre of de facto partition in Afghanistan might even produce the change of heart in the Pakistani military's attitude to the Afghan Taliban that successive US administrations have failed to achieve".
The obvious downside for Washington would be the further strengthening of its regional rival Iran. Tehran has maintained cordial relations with Pakistan even while giving the nod to Chinese and Indian infrastructure projects that are loosening Pakistan's stranglehold on the transport of goods to landlocked Afghanistan. The great loser in the regional equation would be Pakistan, whose ISI intelligence services built the Taliban in the mid-1990s. Already suffering from the aftermath of the flood, and fighting an insurgency by Pashtun and Baloch tribes, Islamabad's civilian leadership has been under unprecedented strain.
And instability is already blooming across Central Asia. Afghanistan's northern neighbour, Tajikistan, has been rocked by car bombs, explosions and ambushes of the army since the summer in a wave of violence unprecedented since the conclusion of its civil war in the 1990s. Afghanistan's failure to transition to democracy is not just damning for the country itself. It threatens to open the doors of instability across the entire region.
Iason Athanasiadis is a writer and photographer based in Istanbul and Kabul
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
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Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Get Out
Director: Jordan Peele
Stars: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford
Four stars
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Glossary of a stock market revolution
Reddit
A discussion website
Redditor
The users of Reddit
Robinhood
A smartphone app for buying and selling shares
Short seller
Selling a stock today in the belief its price will fall in the future
Short squeeze
Traders forced to buy a stock they are shorting
Naked short
An illegal practice
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
MATCH INFO
RB Leipzig 2 (Klostermann 24', Schick 68')
Hertha Berlin 2 (Grujic 9', Piatek 82' pen)
Man of the match Matheus Cunha (Hertha Berlin
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group F
Manchester City v Hoffenheim, midnight (Wednesday, UAE)
Specs
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Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5