Just when you think that unmanned drones, "asymmetric warfare" and the "hi-tech battlefield" have taken over theories of modern warfare, China always seems to pull you back to the 19th century, with its emphasis on mammoth standing armies and sprawling naval armadas.
But Beijing's preference for these traditional means to project power appeared anything but a throwback last week, when a Chinese admiral proposed the construction of a naval base in the Gulf of Aden.
Although Rear Admiral Yin Zhou, a senior official at the navy's Equipment Research Centre, did not specify where a hub might be built, any base would deepen the Asian superpower's presence in the Arabian Sea and the western Indian Ocean, already the farthest westward advance of Chinese naval power since the waning days of the Silk Road 600 years ago.
Then, as now, Beijing's goal for establishing a more permanent military presence far from its borders is to ensure the safety of trade routes. More recently, this has included the continued flow of crude oil and other raw materials.
There is no gainsaying China's increasing strategic and economic stakes in the region.
Since the beginning of 2009, China has sent four naval flotillas to help escort about 1,300 Chinese and foreign ships through waters menaced by pirates operating off the coast of the East African country of Somalia, according to the Chinese news agency Xinhua. Each time, Chinese patrol ships have been forced to rely on access to a French naval base in Djibouti for resupply.
There is little question either about the growing peril to shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.
China is the world's largest importer of crude oil and last year, the number of pirate attacks and hijackings of oil tankers hit a high, according to the International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Centre in Malaysia.
Pirates last year attacked 42 oil-laden tankers around the world, a 40 per cent rise from 2008, the centre said, and most of the attacks occurred off the coast of Somalia and the Arabian Peninsula.
Finally, there is little doubt about the direct dangers to Chinese shipping, where trade not only in oil but in goods and raw materials with African countries has soared in recent years.
Only last week, a Chinese cargo ship, the De Xin Hai, and its crew of 25 were rescued from Somali pirates after being held since October. Their release followed the payment of a ransom of US$4 million (Dh15m) to their kidnappers.
Given China's involvement in the region, a proposal to establish a military base was probably inevitable.
"I believe that a relatively stable, relatively solid base for resupply and repair would be appropriate," Adml Yin said sensibly, adding that such a base would provide a steady source of fresh food, along with facilities for communications, ship repair and recreation.
How much Adml Yin's comments, part of an interview posted on the Chinese defence ministry's website, reflected the views of other more senior Chinese officials was not clear.
But he notably distanced himself from any decision to establish a base, saying it was "entirely a matter for the country's foreign policy circles" and the Communist Party.
If his proposal was intended as a trial balloon to test other Chinese government or foreign reaction, it was not immediately clear how well it went down.
Governments have largely been shut down the past week. Still, attention immediately turned to India, Beijing's long-time rival and Asia's other economic colossus.
China's neighbours in the South China Sea - in particular Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia - are accustomed to Beijing's aggressive use of its naval forces to assert its claims in ongoing territorial disputes and to underline the prerogatives it regards as its due as a rising world power.
But New Delhi has been especially alarmed as Beijing builds a chain of naval installations - dubbed a "string of pearls" strategy - across the Indian Ocean.
China has established a maritime reconnaissance and intelligence centre on the Coco Islands, leased from Myanmar. It is also building a major deepwater port on the Arabian Sea at Gwadar in Pakistan that could become a key naval base for China's expanding submarine fleet.
Furthermore, despite an avowed policy of not maintaining foreign military bases, China is also reported to be interested in establishing naval bases in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand to protect its maritime supply routes from the Middle East and Africa.
It remains to be seen whether Beijing can persuade New Delhi and other sceptical governments that its motives are benign.
In his comments last week, however, Adml Yin appeared sensitive to suggestions that the establishment of a base in the Gulf of Aden was the tip of an iceberg, part of a Chinese government plan for an extensive network of foreign naval bases.
"We are not saying we need our navy everywhere in order to fulfil our international commitments," he said. He added he hoped the nations in the region "would understand" China's need for a "permanent, stable" base for anti-piracy operations.
Then, to underscore how much he is aware that Chinese naval ships in the waters of the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea have aroused suspicions, Admiral Yin noted that the first Chinese frigates deployed to the Gulf spent more than four months at sea without docking.
"We didn't want to arouse unnecessary suspicion from some western countries," he explained.
cnelson@thenational.ae
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'Gold'
Director:Anthony Hayes
Stars:Zaf Efron, Anthony Hayes
Rating:3/5
Ferrari
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if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
THE SPECS
GMC Sierra Denali 1500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
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Price: Dh232,500
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: N2 Technology
Founded: 2018
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Startups
Size: 14
Funding: $1.7m from HNIs
More from Aya Iskandarani
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
