Rising sea levels could cause Abu Dhabi’s coastline to retreat by several kilometres by the year 2100, a study has predicted.
Researchers have forecast that the climate change-induced sea level changes, and the knock-on effects on the ecology of the coastline, will cause the shoreline to retreat by between 2.26km and 3.81km this century.
While many of the emirate’s built-up areas may not be flooded because they sit on land that was elevated during the building process, other coastal regions could be significantly affected.
The first author of the study, Dr Stephen Lokier, an associate professor at the Petroleum Institute Abu Dhabi, which is part of Khalifa University of Science and Technology, said measurements found that the shoreline retreat taking place was greater than expected given how fast the sea level is rising.
“When we started looking at what was happening we were genuinely surprised,” he said.
Sea levels around the world are rising by about 3.2 millimetres per year, which would be expected to cause the shoreline to retreat by about 2.5 metres annually; however, the actual retreat observed is between 10 and 29 m per year.
Shoreline retreat has been increased by a process called “dynamic flooding”, in which the effect of the rise in sea level is multiplied because it increases erosion by, for example, changing the mangroves and the “mats” of microorganisms that line much of the coast.
Published in the journal Geomorphology, the study warns that the retreat of the shoreline "will threaten existing coastal infrastructure".
“You can elevate the coastline where you have infrastructure. If you don’t do it for the whole coastline, this process, this flooding, could isolate these areas,” said Dr Lokier.
“The other concern is that as sea level rises, you have coastal defences that may be one or two metres above the current sea level, but the increase in the energy because of the rising sea level hasn’t always been considered.”
The other authors of the study, entitled Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting, are Wesley Court and Dr Andreas Paul, who were both at the Petroleum Institute when the work was carried out, and Dr Takumi Onuma of JGI, a Japanese surveying company.
In a statement, the Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi said that it had carried out a number of studies on climate change, including one focused on sea level rise and another on its impact.
The agency said there were “limitations” on predicting sea level rise because of “large uncertainties over the extent of melting in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets”, adding that UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports had produced “a wide range of projections.
“It is difficult to state with certainty what the actual level of sea level rise in 2100 is likely to be, but it is certain that some will occur,” the agency said.
Tidal gauges have been installed at different locations in Abu Dhabi to measure sea level changes, but the agency said the absence of long-term recording of sea level change and other measurements “make it challenging to model SLR impacts” as multiple factors affect the amount of flooding and erosion damage.
The agency said that Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 states that because of potential sea level rises, “all new waterfront development should be planning for higher water levels at their edge”.
Abu Dhabi’s development code notes that seawalls may be required to protect the land from the sea or prevent faster shoreline erosion.
The agency said that Plan Maritime 2030 notes that Abu Dhabi has 760km of coastline and that 68 per cent of the emirate’s economy, or Dh640 billion, comes from “the coastal zone”. Also, 900,000 people, or 42 per cent of the population, live in the emirate’s coastal zone.
According to Plan Maritime 2030, Abu Dhabi has 760 km of coastline, including 216 islands. “These factors could potentially be negatively impacted in case of sea level rise caused by climate change,” the agency said.
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Environmental campaigners meanwhile said the research highlighted the need for action to combat climate change as well as measures to mitigate its effects.
Julien Jreissati, Arab world campaigner at Greenpeace Mediterranean, said the study was “yet another warning signal that global action to combat climate change should be significantly ramped up”, with countries needing to cut greenhouse gas emissions and focus on renewable energy technology.
“Sea level rise along with desertification and extreme heat are direct consequences of climate change and will render daily life in the UAE very challenging in the near future if the fight against climate change is not seriously ramped up at a local, regional and national level,” he said.
He said the UAE “should lead by example” and transition to 100 per cent renewable energy and “decarbonise their transport sector, which currently almost exclusively relies on petrol”.
“The UAE needs as well to take the appropriate adaptation measures such as safeguarding and boosting their mangroves population, which would provide a good barrier against sea level rise and erosion as well as developing their infrastructure to adapt to the new conditions associated with climate change,” he said.
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
NO OTHER LAND
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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
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Engine: 6.2-litre V8
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Transmission: 10-speed automatic
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hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The%20specs
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HOW DO SIM CARD SCAMS WORK?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards, often by claiming their phone has been lost or stolen
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
EXPATS
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