It's the desire to break something, rather than build something new, that seems to be the driving force behind Sudan's impending referendum.
Torn by perpetual civil wars, Africa's largest country has been unified only in name since its independence in 1956. Still, the stability that Sudan has achieved is at risk in the run up to two important votes. Three months ahead of the referendums - one for the independence of South Sudan and another for the oil-rich Abyei region - it is still not entirely clear what will be voted on. The borders of a new South Sudan haven't been settled. Oil production and refining, water rights, and the fate of the many southerners who still reside in the North have to be addressed.
All of these are flash points for conflict. It is not surprising that the Sudanese president Omar Bashir has made this point most forcibly. "A new conflict between the north and south will ensue if there was a failure to address these issues before the referendum," the official Suna news agency reported yesterday. "Such a conflict could be more dangerous than the one that took place before the peace agreement."
The line from Khartoum may be correct, but it is not credible. Mr Bashir's 21 years of misrule, the seven years of atrocities in Darfur, and his signal failure to draw South Sudan back into the union since the 2005 ceasefire are the biggest wedges driving the country apart. For South Sudan, which has been fighting for independence for most of the past 54 years, it is unclear what kind of state might emerge. The political parties are united along tribal lines and have a history of infighting. Nation-building is just beginning. "All the state institutions are literally being built from scratch," said Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations.
The United States has a role to play in the next three months. Unlike the European Union, the US has engaged Khartoum despite its reservations. In concert with regional powers, it is vital that diplomatic channels of communication remain open. Mr Bashir is regularly warning of war; southern leaders are steadily moving into the pro-independence camp. It may be a collision course, but whether there is secession or not, the two sides need each other. The economic development of both regions, not to mention decreasing their ruinous defence budgets, depends on diplomacy. Sudan may dissolve into separate states, but they - and the region - will remain inextricably bound together.