The Middle East is likely to experience less rainfall but an increase in the number of extreme downpours because of climate change, experts have said.
Flooding is likely to increase, said Karim Elgendy, an associate fellow in the climate and environment programme at Chatham House in London, as part of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) briefing.
While climate change will, on average, increase rainfall globally, Mr Elgendy said the Middle East would be an exception.
“We’re going to get longer droughts and when it does rain, it’s going to rain in a flooding manner,” he said.
“Then you have sea-level rises,” he added. “In the Nile Delta, we’re going to expect a dramatic impact, especially in the Nile, which is below sea level.”
There will be “secondary impacts” on agriculture, tourism and development, with “tertiary impacts” on social structures, migration and resource demand, although Mr Elgendy said forecasting these was difficult.
Middle East second-most affected region by rising temperatures
Mr Elgendy was speaking at a Mena region briefing before Monday's release of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, which summarises the current situation regarding climate change.
Released following final discussions between experts in Switzerland, the report indicates that the world is falling far short of its climate change targets if global temperature rises are not to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This has happened ahead of Cop28, the IPCC climate-change gathering to be held in the UAE later this year — the second successive Cop in the Mena region, with Cop27 having taken place in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt last year.
Mr Elgendy indicated that this focus on the region was appropriate, as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East would experience the largest increases in temperature as a result of climate change of any inhabited region, with only the Arctic, which despite its vast size is inhabited by only 4 million people, facing faster rises.
Cop28 will involve three key elements, according to Mr Elgendy, including a global stocktake of progress since the Paris Agreement on climate change drafted in 2015.
Also expected, he said, was a global agreement on adaptation, or how countries will respond to climate change, and the finalisation of a deal on loss and damage, in which poorer countries severely affected by climate change will be given financial support to cope with its consequences.
“All these things mean Cop28 is where most pending issues will get resolved,” he said. “It means we have fewer things to negotiate.”
'A Cop for action'
Mr Elgendy, who founded Carboun, an initiative that promotes sustainability in Middle Eastern cities, said Cop28 could mark a transition in the nature of climate conferences if the focus is more on assessing and promoting action to combat climate change, instead of forging agreements on what needs to be done.
“Cop 28 could be a Cop for action,” he said. “It could start a transition in what the Cop is [about] … it’s something that’s largely about encouraging climate action.”
However, he said the world is set to overshoot the target of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C, so greater ambition is needed.
“If we hit all the voluntary targets by 2050, maybe we’ll get to 2°C but we’re certainly off target for 1.5°C,” he said.
“The process … isn’t going fast enough and time is running out. Emissions grew by 1 per cent last year and it was nothing to do with Covid recovery.”
He said the UAE’s climate policy appeared “unorthodox” but that it had largely been followed by the rest of the GCC.
The country, he said, is keen to diversify its economy away from oil and gas, funded by revenue from the petroleum sector.
Investment in renewable and nuclear energy, Mr Elgendy said, had allowed the country to reduce its own petroleum consumption.
This, in turn, means that exports can be maximised — justified not only in the UAE but in the GCC as a whole — on the basis that oil and gas extraction is less carbon-intensive in the Gulf than in many other parts of the world, he said.
“The UAE and Saudi position is … we should be the last producers standing, because the oil … requires less energy to get it out of the ground,” he said.
Another speaker, Camille Ammoun, an associate fellow at the American University of Beirut, said GCC countries had an economic interest to engage in efforts to mitigate climate change, as well as the financial means to drive green projects. They also have an interest in doing so because of the environmental effects of climate change.
“The Gulf countries have the interest and means to go further,” he said, although these nations are “still very reliant on fossil-fuel extraction.”
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
The five pillars of Islam
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
