Is climate change making floods more likely - and what can be done about it?


Daniel Bardsley
  • English
  • Arabic

The floods that hit the Northern Emirates recently had tragic consequences, killing seven people and forcing thousands into temporary shelters.

In recent weeks other parts of the Middle East also faced the worst effects of flooding, including Iran, where at least 80 people were killed in late July.

This came only three years after heavy rains in southern Iran caused the deaths of 76 people and an estimated $2 billion worth of damage.

In parts of the Middle East and North Africa, rainfall is becoming concentrated in shorter bursts, even if overall levels are often decreasing, said Dr Nasser Karami, a researcher in Norway who analyses the region's climate.

Added to this, he said, are the effects of development, with buildings constructed in areas that are prone to flooding.

“So the possibility of floods occurring has increased, and the possibility of damage from floods has increased,” he said.

“Big damage from flooding in the Middle East previously was about once per 10 years. Now it's every year.”

Global issue

Look further afield and a similar picture is seen.

In Seoul, the South Korean capital, rain recently fell at the fastest rate since records began more than a century ago, killing 13 people, some of whom were trapped in basements.

Parts of the Philippines, including the capital, Manila, and the island of Cebu, have been under as many as 1.2 metres of water this month.

Meanwhile, Death Valley in California not long ago experienced, in just a few hours, 43mm of rainfall, almost as much as falls in an average year.

It is no wonder that palm trees were uprooted and dozens of cars were swept away and ended up partially buried in debris.

While extreme weather events and flooding are nothing new, experts say the disturbances caused by climate change mean they are happening more often.

One reason is that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture: a 1°C average temperature rise increases the amount of moisture by about seven per cent.

“That's basic physics,” said Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, part of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

“When it does rain, you tend to get heavier rainfall, which can lead to river flooding and surface-water flooding.”

As well as intensifying rainfall, climate change is causing some storms to move more slowly, so more rain falls on a particular area and flash floods become more likely.

Research published last year by Newcastle University and the University of Bristol in the UK suggested that “slow-moving intense rainstorms” could be 14 times more common in Europe by the end of the century if little was done to reduce emissions.

An unwelcome preview of this was seen in July 2021, when lingering storms meant that Germany, Belgium and other European nations suffered devastating flooding that killed nearly 250 people.

Multiple factors

There are many other ways in which floods are becoming more of a risk in particular environments.

In some mountainous regions, such as the Appalachians of eastern and north-eastern North America, several factors are at play.

As well as an upward trend in intensity, researchers have found that more precipitation is in the form of rain, which is more likely than snow to cause flooding.

In addition, wildfires are more frequent because of climate change, and they increase the risk of mudslides and debris flows when there is heavy rain.

Vulnerable seaside populations

For coastal areas, sea-level rises caused by climate change increase the risk of floods, especially due to storm surges. Building higher and stronger sea defences can protect some, but not all, areas.

“This may be economically viable where you have concentrations of population, such as cities,” Mr Ward said. “But in less populated areas there will have to be a calculation as to whether it's worth staying there or giving up coastal population to rising sea levels.

“There are many parts of the world where we're starting to get these conversations.”

Many coastal cities, such as New Orleans, Mumbai and Shanghai, are built on river deltas, which makes them especially vulnerable.

Cities are often at risk of flooding because large areas of the ground are made from impermeable materials that do not allow the water to soak in, but things can be done to make them more resilient.

Individual buildings can be protected by what the industry calls property flood resilience measures.

Rain flooded Death Valley National Park in California earlier this month. Reuters
Rain flooded Death Valley National Park in California earlier this month. Reuters

These may consist of aperture barriers, such as waterproof metal barriers in front of external doors, to prevent water entering.

Another approach is to design buildings in such a way that, if they are flooded, damage is reduced. Mr Ward highlights measures such as using tiles, which will not be spoilt if water gets into a room, and placing electrical sockets higher up. It may also be preferable for the electrics to run down from the ceiling rather than up from the ground.

On a wider level, and among many other measures, governments may have to invest in improved drainage systems so that, when rains come, more water escapes.

“You have cities like London with Victorian drainage, which cannot cope,” Mr Ward said. “You need to overhaul the drainage system.”

As the world struggles to meet greenhouse gas emission targets that would limit average temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a key goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, extreme rainfall events are set to become ever more common, and sea levels are forecast to continue to rise.

“The climate is changing because we've altered the atmosphere in a way we haven't seen in more than one million years,” Mr Ward said. “There's going to be lots of nasty shocks because of this.”

BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Friday (UAE kick-off times)

Cologne v Hoffenheim (11.30pm)

Saturday

Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig (6.30pm)

Schalke v Fortuna Dusseldof (6.30pm)

Mainz v Union Berlin (6.30pm)

Paderborn v Augsburg (6.30pm)

Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (9.30pm)

Sunday

Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen (4.30pm)

Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)

SC Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt (9on)

David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

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Some of Darwish's last words

"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008

His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.

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LOS ANGELES GALAXY 2 MANCHESTER UNITED 5

Galaxy: Dos Santos (79', 88')
United: Rashford (2', 20'), Fellaini (26'), Mkhitaryan (67'), Martial (72')

Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

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Friday’s fixture

6.15pm: Al Wahda v Hatta

6.15pm: Al Dhafra v Ajman

9pm: Al Wasl v Baniyas

9pm: Fujairah v Sharjah

.

Ammar 808:
Maghreb United

Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat 

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

Tips for job-seekers
  • Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
  • Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.

David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

Scorebox

Dubai Hurricanes 31 Dubai Sports City Eagles 22

Hurricanes

Tries: Finck, Powell, Jordan, Roderick, Heathcote

Cons: Tredray 2, Powell

Eagles

Tries: O’Driscoll 2, Ives

Cons: Carey 2

Pens: Carey

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Secret Pigeon Service: Operation Colomba, Resistance and the Struggle to Liberate Europe
Gordon Corera, Harper Collins

ANALYSTS’ TOP PICKS OF SAUDI BANKS IN 2019

Analyst: Aqib Mehboob of Saudi Fransi Capital

Top pick: National Commercial Bank

Reason: It will be at the forefront of project financing for government-led projects

 

Analyst: Shabbir Malik of EFG-Hermes

Top pick: Al Rajhi Bank

Reason: Defensive balance sheet, well positioned in retail segment and positively geared for rising rates

 

Analyst: Chiradeep Ghosh of Sico Bank

Top pick: Arab National Bank

Reason: Attractive valuation and good growth potential in terms of both balance sheet and dividends

The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

Ferrari
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Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
  • Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
  • Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Updated: August 13, 2022, 10:30 AM