People claiming to have seen a dazzling streak of light and stones falling from the sky were once dismissed as fantasists.
And no wonder – even now, the images of the Chelyabinsk meteor flying across the skies of Russia in February defy belief.
The ubiquity of smartphones and security cameras has now given even the most sceptical compelling evidence that our planet faces a cosmic threat.
But the images have proved more than merely spectacular. Videos posted on YouTube have provided scientists with unprecedented insights into the object that shot through the Earth’s atmosphere in the early hours of February 15.
By scouring the images from hundreds of cameras, researchers have been able to extract amazingly detailed information about the speed, size and identity of the object. The results have been published in the leading journals Nature and Science.
For example, video taken by dashboard cameras – commonly used by Russians to counter car crime – revealed the speed of the incoming fireball to be almost 60 times the speed of sound.
Examination of security camera footage of glass being blown out of windows allowed researchers to estimate the energy in the hypersonic shock-wave created by the fireball.
Taken together, this revealed that the chunk of cosmic debris was the size of a six-storey office block and started out with a mass of about 12,500 tonnes.
Torn apart by aerodynamic stresses, the interplanetary rock exploded with ferocious energy. Analysis of the dashboard camera videos of the searing light from the fireball pointed to a release of energy equivalent to about half a million tonnes of TNT, far more even than the atom bombs dropped on Japan.
The resulting fragments left a trail of debris for 90 kilometres on either side of the fireball’s trajectory, including one 650-kilogram chunk dumped into a lake and recovered last month.
So what was it that crashed into the Earth that day? Chemical analysis of the fragments has shown that the meteor was an “ordinary chondrite”, a fragment of one of the myriad asteroids that mostly orbit the sun between Mars and Jupiter.
Again, all those YouTube images allowed scientists to find out much more. By tracking the trajectory back into space, they have been able to reconstruct the meteor’s entire orbit around the sun.
This has turned out to be strikingly similar in size, shape and orientation to that of an asteroid discovered 14 years ago, code-named 1999NC43. Astronomers now believe that what we saw in February was the final act in a drama that began literally millions of years ago, when a fragment was smashed off the 2km-wide parent object, and then slowly but inexorably made its way towards an impact with our planet.
It is an impressive piece of detective work, and one that shows how valuable the observations of ordinary people can be.
Scientists have long been wary about taking the claims of the public seriously, however. The study of meteors in particular was held back for centuries by the snooty attitude of scholars towards the claims of their less-educated contemporaries.
That changed in 1803 when a French scientist, Jean-Baptiste Biot, was dispatched to the village of l’Aigle, near Alençon in northern France, to investigate stories that thousands of stones had fallen out of the skies in April that year.
A few months later, Biot informed his fellow scholars at the French Academy of Sciences that the claims were well-founded.
He based his assertion partly on the fact that the stones from the sky appeared to be quite unlike anything from the locality. Chemical analysis did reveal, on the other hand, a striking resemblance to stones at the centre of similar claims from elsewhere in France.
Perhaps the most compelling evidence, however, was Biot’s demonstration that the eyewitnesses could not all be dismissed as simple peasants. He showed that there was corroboration of their stories among members of the professions, including the clergy.
When combined with previous anecdotes from other times and place, the conclusion was ineluctable: stones really do fall from the heavens, and can land anywhere, any time.
Proof of this has sometimes only emerged very recently, however – the first meteorites were found in the UAE just eight years ago.
Scientists are hardly alone in being reluctant to accept the apparently outrageous. The phenomenon is well-known to social psychologists as “cognitive dissonance”, the tendency to reject ideas that do too much violence to our current worldview.
Cognitive dissonance has continued to afflict the study of meteor impacts. Over the years, scientists have found many impact craters scarring the Earth and Moon, plus whole families of asteroids on near collision-course with our planet. Even so, acceptance of the risk they pose to life on Earth has been slow in coming.
The discovery of evidence that a meteor impact pushed the dinosaurs into extinction 65 million years ago created a flurry of interest in the 1980s, as did the impact of a small comet, Shoemaker-Levy 9, with Jupiter in July 1994. Public concern did not last long.
Among scientists, however, the Chelyabinsk event has rung alarm bells. Most obviously, it has highlighted the inadequacies of current methods for spotting these objects before they strike.
The chances of a direct hit on a major conurbation are low, but the devastating consequences are surely enough to justify a more determined global effort.
More worrying is the fact that we have now had two warning shots across our cosmic bows almost within living memory.
In June 1908, a huge meteor exploded over the Tunguska River in Siberia with a blast far more powerful even than the Chelyabinsk event.
Astronomers thought such events were much less common; now they think they may have radically underestimated their frequency.
So far we’ve been lucky, but unless we take the lessons of Chelyabinsk more seriously, we may yet share the dismal fate of the dinosaurs.
Robert Matthews is visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham, England
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Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
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Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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MATCH INFO
England 2
Cahill (3'), Kane (39')
Nigeria 1
Iwobi (47')
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Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Ain Issa camp:
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- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
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When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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PAST 10 BRITISH GRAND PRIX WINNERS
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2015 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2013 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)
2012 - Mark Webber (Red Bull Racing)
2011 - Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2010 - Mark Webber (Red Bull Racing)
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2008 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
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NO OTHER LAND
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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
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Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
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Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
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By Sean Penn
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Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
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Sudden change in behaviour or displays higher levels of stress or anxiety
Shows signs of depression or isolation
Ability to sleep well diminishes
Academic performance begins to deteriorate
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Behaviour changes and is aggressive towards siblings
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
England's all-time record goalscorers:
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Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent