Michael Young

Tehran might benefit temporarily from its apparent takeover of Hezbollah but the long term consequences for Lebanon – and Iran's ideology – would not be favourable to them

America is relying more on Israel to preserve its domination across the region. Biden's successor is unlikely to change this direction of travel

The costs of sanctioning the head of the last functioning governing institution in the state would be significant, and the gains negligible

By helping drag Lebanon into war, the militants are burning bridges on multiple fronts

Countries and territories in which the Axis of Resistance is present are vulnerable in the event of Israeli retaliation

The Israelis know that the group is fighting with one hand behind its back

With the country at a crossroads, a recent speech by one of its most powerful Christian leaders is intriguing

There is little benefit in seeing the US maintain its dominance in the region

Lebanon's Christian electorate is a house divided, leaving it open to political exploitation

There is no military solution likely to bring Israel a better outcome than a negotiated agreement

Relying simply on military force to achieve your objectives, while your adversaries are also focused on politics, is a losing strategy

The tensions with Israel may not result in another war but if they do, reconstituting the current state would be near impossible

The behaviour of some Lebanese senior leaders is destroying what remains of the Taif Accord

A full-blown conflict inside Lebanon that involves Israel, Hezbollah and Iran is unlikely to break out

There are parallel calculations by both men, involving facing a backlash and accepting defeat