As Turkish voters go to the polls today, there does not seem to be much mystery about the outcome: the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is slated to win an overwhelming victory. The elections are noteworthy in part because this is the first time since the 1950s that a single political party will have won three successive contests. Moreover, the Turkish military's shadow no longer lurks over the results; the era of coups is over.
For four distinct reasons, these elections are likely to be landmark in the evolution of the Turkish political system.
First, Mr Erdogan has promised to overhaul the 1982 military-imposed authoritarian constitution. The ruling military junta had crafted a document that privileged the interests of the state at the expense of the individual and has proven to be a straitjacket preventing the development of Turkish democracy. Moreover, it remains the main impediment to the resolution of Turkey's most important problem: the so-called "Kurdish question". The size of AKP's victory will decide how and whether the reform process will proceed.
Second, by Mr Erdogan's own admission, these elections are his last parliamentary ones. It is no secret that he intends to transform Turkey from a parliamentary system to a French-style presidential one. He will then contest the next presidential elections. He has been the most dominant Turkish politician of his generation and he intends to remain so until 2023, the 100th anniversary of the formation of the modern Turkish republic.
Third, Turkey's hapless opposition has a chance to come out of its self-imposed irrelevance. The main opposition, the Republican People's Party, CHP, is showing signs of awakening as its new leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, despite many false starts and mistakes, has managed to inject a new sense of dynamism among its rank and file. The AKP has not had any real opposition since its assumption of power in 2002, and it shows. Although the CHP will not win these elections, it is important that the Turkish voter sees that there can be a change in leadership in the not so distant future. Otherwise, there is a danger that Turkey will turn into a one-party state.
Fourth, will the Kurdish national movement, as represented mostly by the Peace and Democracy Party, BDP, emerge as a mature movement ready to assume the responsibility of co-shepherding a resolution of this age-old problem? The good news is that Kurds in Turkey are no longer interested in a separate state. This is because the "Kurdish problem" in Turkey is no longer a regional one. Kurds live everywhere; Istanbul is the world's largest Kurdish city with as many as four million of its 12 million inhabitants of Kurdish descent. Kurds are intent on regaining elementary rights, be they political or cultural. Although they have been at this struggle for a considerable time, the Arab Spring has provided them with further inspiration.
Kurdish political parties have been harassed and persecuted by the state while also existing under the shadow of the insurgent group, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK. There is a chance after these elections for them to win a degree of independence from the PKK and the state.
The BDP is running slates of independent candidates because of restrictive electoral rules requiring a party to win a minimum of 10 per cent of the national vote to earn parliamentary representation. But it is expected to do well because it has successfully galvanised its base by articulating a resolute set of demands for the next constitution. How the rest of Turkey reacts to a much-enhanced BDP and how it exercises its newfound legitimacy after the elections will very much determine the success of the constitutional reforms.
Many pitfalls still lie ahead. First, will the Nationalist Action Party, MHP, make it past the 10 per cent electoral threshold and get into parliament? The MHP is the anti-thesis of the Kurdish movement; it has no agenda other than opposing any concessions to the Kurds in the name of Turkish supremacy. However, its leader Devlet Bahçeli, though a bland politician with little vision, has succeeded in reining his party's violent hotheads. If the MHP is not represented in parliament then it will be much harder to contain its violent rank and file who are quite capable of provoking inter-ethnic clashes between Turks and Kurds.
The second pitfall is that while support for democratic reforms is widespread, it is not evident that the public will countenance a presidential system. In a polarised society, Mr Erdogan risks conflating the reforms designed to resolve the Kurdish question with the presidential system, thereby endangering the first. This could potentially have catastrophic consequences for Turkey's stability.
What do these elections mean for Turkey's foreign policy and regional role? The AKP has succeeded in exploiting Turkey's strategic location and economic prowess to claim a role in the international system. Continued determined steps to enhance and consolidate its democracy will undoubtedly increase its clout. The Turkish experience, however, demonstrates to Arab countries that the path to democracy is long, arduous and non-linear. On the other hand, were Turkey to finally live up to the old Ataturk adage so often misused in the past of "peace at home, peace abroad", it could potentially have much more to contribute.
Henri J Barkey is a professor at Lehigh University and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Keita 5', Firmino 26'
Porto 0
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The bio
His favourite book - 1984 by George Orwell
His favourite quote - 'If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' by Derek Bok, Former President of Harvard
Favourite place to travel to - Peloponnese, Southern Greece
Favourite movie - The Last Emperor
Favourite personality from history - Alexander the Great
Role Model - My father, Yiannis Davos
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets