Barack Obama’s track record suggests he’s unlikely to order significant US military intervention in Iraq. And if he stays true to the pattern of restraint he’s shown in Syria and Ukraine, he’ll likely have the backing of a majority of the American public and also of a US military leadership highly sceptical of military adventures that lack a credible end game.
The offensive by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its allies has some in Washington blaming Mr Obama's restrained global posture for the setbacks. But Mr Obama, having taken the helm of an exhausted imperial power whose post-Second World War role simply no longer matched its means, remains preternaturally opposed to injecting the US military into distant conflicts that have their own dynamics for which American power offers no obvious solution. For months, White House officials have reportedly uttered variations on the mantra "don't do stupid stuff" to summarise the administration's response to the "do something" pressure on Syria or Ukraine.
The US military convinced Mr Obama to refrain from air strikes in Syria because there was no clear end game. There’s plainly little enthusiasm in the military for renewed involvement in Iraq. Gen Martin Dempsey last week told Congress the US currently lacked sufficient intelligence on ISIL to make air strikes viable.
Gen David Petraeus, former US commander in Iraq, was even more forthright, telling an audience in London that the US should avoid providing air support for Shia militias – the forces most loyal to Nouri Al Maliki – and that there was no point in the US intervening to prop up an incorrigibly sectarian political order.
President Obama echoed that idea, warning that “no amount of American firepower [would] be able to hold the country together” if Iraq’s political leadership could not find a formula for inclusive governance. It’s now generally accepted in Washington that Mr Al Maliki’s authoritarian sectarian rule has set the stage for ISIL’s takeover of western Iraq.
While John Kerry stopped short of calling on Mr Al Maliki to stand down during his visit to Baghdad this week, there has been talk in Washington of “replacing” Mr Al Maliki, as if sectarian authoritarian politics in Baghdad was simply a product of the prime minister’s paranoia and other personal failings, rather than deeply etched into the political fabric. The US was unable to influence Iraq’s political choices when it had 170,000 troops in the country. It’s hard to imagine decisive influence being acquired at the price of a few advisers and the possibility of air strikes.
Just as ISIL is unlikely to be able to take Shia-dominated areas such as Baghdad, so, too, it may be unlikely that forces loyal to Mr Al Maliki will retake Sunni-majority areas. ISIL may comprise no more than about 10,000 men, but it is operating in a permissive environment. Its commanders have years of experience and they will draw allied groups from across the region under their wing.
Air strikes could certainly disrupt ISIL to a limited extent, but probably at a prohibitive cost. As Paul Rogers of the Oxford Research Group has warned, the single biggest boost to ISIL’s recruitment drive will be any form of Western military intervention. “Any such intervention would be a grave mistake,” he says.
The US "surge" drove Al Qaeda in Iraq out of the same area in 2007 because it bought off local tribes and insurgent groups antagonised by the extremists's harsh behaviour. Mr Al Maliki abandoned, then turned on those forces as soon as the US stood down. Those groups may well grow disaffected with ISIL, but many of them are quite content to see the radicals drive out government forces.
The splintering of Iraq – and the tearing up of the Sykes-Picot map that created the region’s modern system of nation states – is already well underway. Kurdistan is a reality, even more deeply entrenched since its acquisition of Kirkuk. There’s precious little Mr Al Maliki can do today to stop Iraq’s borders being redrawn by either ISIL or the Kurdistan Regional Government.
The Sykes-Picot order was imposed with the backing of colonial military power. A nation-state, by definition, requires a monopoly of force in the hands of those who would rule its territory. No such thing exists in Iraq today, which is why it is breaking up. And the US – having eliminated Saddam’s monopoly – is not in a position to provide it in his stead.
If the key to stabilising Iraq requires a consensus, or at least a new modus vivendi, among competing sectarian and ethnic factions, that implies that the essential precondition for containing the ISIL challenge is some form of regional security compact among Iraq’s neighbours, whose war by proxy through Iraqi factions continues to drive the civil war.
But getting Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others to agree on a common approach to Iraq – and Syria – may take years.
Tony Karon teaches in the graduate programme in international affairs at the New School in New York
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20112%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Invincible%20(April%2010%2C%202010)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENogueira%20v%20Nelson%20(April%2011%2C%202014)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20242%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khabib%20v%20Poirier%20(September%207%2C%202019)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20251%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Usman%20v%20Masvidal%20(July%2012%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kattar%20v%20Ige%20(July%2016%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFigueiredo%20v%20Benavidez%202%20(July%2019%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%20Whittaker%20v%20Till%20(July%2026%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20253%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdesanya%20v%20Costa%20(September%2027%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holm%20v%20Aldana%20(October%204%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Moraes%20v%20Sandhagen%20(October%2011%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ortega%20v%20Korean%20Zombie%20(October%2018%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20254%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhabib%20v%20Gaethje%20(October%2024%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ABC%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holloway%20v%20Kattar%20(January%2016%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chiesa%20v%20Magny%20(January%2020%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20257%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPoirier%20v%20McGregor%202%20(January%2024%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20267%3A%20Blachowicz%20v%20Teixeira%20(October%2030%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20280%3A%20Oliveira%20v%20Makhachev%20(October%2022%2C%202022)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances