"Maybe," said Laurent Blanc with a glint in his eye, "we can do a Greece." The head coach of France knew the quote would make headlines the next day. It sounded such an odd idea: here were France, twice champions of Europe, and World-Cup holders during Blanc's time as a player, aspiring to be as good as the least likely title-holders in international football of the 21st century.
The memory of Greece's triumph at Euro 2004 has assumed a faded quality over the past eight years, perhaps because it was freakish, perhaps because the football Otto Rehhagel's workmanlike Greek team played to defeat the likes of France and the hosts Portugal on the way to that upset was not especially elegant.
Or perhaps because the game becomes so accustomed to seeing a select group of favourites master the major competitions of world football and generally share the big prizes among themselves that we forget the oddball insurgents.
Yet football's hierarchies, however established they may seem by the importance of capital and economic might, do change.
"The games goes in cycles," coaches and analysts endlessly say, without defining the length or the nature of a cycle. Ask Blanc and he would tell you that France's national team's cycle peaked around 2000, when they followed a World Cup success in 1998 with the trophy at the Euros, then began a dip: he is still not sure how far Les Bleus have climbed out of the nadir of the last World Cup, which is why he liked to put France in the category of underdogs, using Greece as his shorthand.
Or perhaps Blanc spotted that 2012 has something of the character of 2004 in football terms. The year began, in both cases, with new names on an important cup: in 2004 Tunisia became African champions for the first time; in 2012, Zambia achieved their first continental victory. Coincidence?
Maybe, though it may be worth noting that the previous time the African Cup of Nations had etched a new name on its biennial role of honour had been eight years before that, in 1996.
In club football, the eight-year itch can also look like a habit. Remember that a couple of months before Greece upset expectations by lifting the national title of Europe, clubs from France and Portugal had contested the Champions League final, Porto defeating Monaco. That was unprecedented in the modern era.
Never, since the European Cup became the Champions League, had a team from Portugal won it; only Marseille in the early 1990s, had ever represented Ligue 1 in a final.
Now look at the make-up of the teams in Friday's draw for the 2012 Champions League quarter-finals. Unless Chelsea overcome a deficit tonight against Napoli, there could, for the first time since 1996, be no English club left at this stage.
Basel had already set a new watershed in the Champions League era by putting a Swiss team into the last 16. A Russian presence survives into tonight, with CSKA Moscow taking a 1-1 first-leg draw to Real Madrid. Most remarkable of all are Apoel Nicosia, a club from Cyprus, in the last eight.
In an interview in the magazine The Blizzard, Sir Alex Ferguson, the the Manchester United manager, put the theory, which he said he had discussed with fellow experts, that "the greatest teams ever have a time span of seven years."
In the eighth season, standards would still be high, but perceptible slipping. The tools of the modern game are built around the idea that great players have eight peak years in them: player contracts, at least for footballers under 30, tend to be of around four years, so a good, happy footballer at a successful club might reasonably be expected to sign two of these.
Broadcast deals, around which successful clubs build their budgets, tend to be of around a four-year duration; as soon as one is signed, chairmen and presidents are lobbying to get more money over the next four-year deal.
In the context of European club football, political and legislative events have also shaped the logic of the eight-year cycle. Rewind to 1996 and you find Ajax of Amsterdam in the second of their successive Champions League finals.
Neither they, or any Dutch club, were to return to such an elevated stage. Why? The Bosman ruling of 1995 had given footballers freedom of movement and most of the players in a fine Ajax squad left for countries with stronger, richer leagues.
By 2004, when Porto briefly returned ownership of the Champions League to a club from a league outside the so-called Big Four, a new trend was gathering. Roman Abramovich had just bought Chelsea, who reached the semi-final in his first season of vast investment.
An era of English muscle-flexing was under way, as overseas investors followed Abramovich's lead. The majority shareholdings of Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool all changed, post-2004. English football then provided seven finalists in the Champions League between 2005 and 2011.
It is hasty to say that, with only Chelsea hanging on tonight in the last 16 stage, that era is over, but regulations which might turn out as significant as the Bosman law are shaping European football.
Uefa's Financial Fair Play guidelines will curtail spending among the big clubs. The last transfer window saw far lower outlays than a year earlier, and you can make an argument that the below-par showings of United, Arsenal and Chelsea in Europe this season are down to a to failure strengthen their squads in key positions.
So who's going to do a Greece or a Porto in 2012? It is surely fanciful to picture Apoel in the Champions League final, but if the draw is kind, perhaps a Benfica, aiming for a first semi-final in two decades, might sneak in to grab elite football's eight-yearly opening for an underdog.
sports@thenational.ae
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ponti
Sharlene Teo, Pan Macmillan
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
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NO OTHER LAND
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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
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Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
Where: Wanda Metropolitano
When: Thursday, kick-off 10.45pm
Live: On BeIN Sports HD
