All eyes turn to Melbourne today for the opening grand slam of the year and arguably the most open men's Australian Open for a good few years. The winner of the event is almost certainly going to come from the top four seeds, but trying to predict who will be lifting the Norman Brookes trophy on Feb 1 in the Rod Laver Arena is easier said than done.
The No 4 seed Andy Murray is the man most in form coming into the competition and his performances and consistency have risen spectacularly in the last six months with a last eight spot at Wimbledon, being runner-up at the US Open and two Masters titles outlining that. Murray has also learned how to win ugly. At Wimbledon he came from two sets down to beat Richard Gasquet, while at the US Open he came back from a poor start to beat Jurgen Melzer.
It is an important facet of any champion to be able to win when not at their best and that does appear to be a skill Murray has picked up. Not that he has needed it of late as he has started this year superbly. Impressive wins over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in Abu Dhabi were backed up by defending his Qatar Open title. His serving has been superb thus far, not being broken once in Doha, and that will have to continue if he is to challenge.
He is certainly on the radar of the three-times champion Federer, who appears to be in an unusually tetchy mood as he completed his preparations. It is probably the biggest compliment of Murray's improvement that Federer has spent a lot of time talking about him, saying he needs to win a grand slam before he is considered a genuine threat to the dominance of the top two. Whether it is Federer's genuine feelings, or it is frustration with the state of his current game which is not firing on all cylinders yet, but the former world No 1 does not appear to be in the best of spirits, although victory in Kooyong on Saturday hinted that he may just be peaking at the right time.
But you count out Federer at your peril as his majestic defence of his US Open crown last September demonstrated, and beating him over five sets is a very difficult task - in the last four years only Marat Safin, Nadal and Novak Djokovic have done it. The world No 1 Nadal has never been beyond the semi-finals in Melbourne, but he has improved on the hard court surface over the years and it will take something special from someone to beat him.
The searing power of the Spaniard was there for all to see in Abu Dhabi and Doha, although he may lack match fitness following his early end to last season because of injury, if his loss to Gael Monfils in Doha is anything to go by. The Frenchman could meet Nadal again in the last 16 here, but of most concern to the Spaniard is that if results go to plan it is Murray he will meets in the semi-finals.
The world No 3 Djokovic is arguably the least in-form of the top four, going out of the warm-up event in Brisbane in the first round, before losing in the semi-finals in Sydney on Friday. The Serbian is also complaining of racket problems as he changed brands and he does not look or sound like the force he was 12 months ago, which is not ideal for the defence of his only grand slam title to date, with the Italian Andrea Stoppini awaiting him in the first round.
The world No 3's season tailed off a little last year after his impressive start, but victory in the Masters Cup in Shanghai in November was a reminder of just what he can do. Organisers and spectators will all be hoping the key quartet can navigate the first five rounds to set-up two mouthwatering semi-finals: Nadal v Murray and Djokovic v Federer. Selecting a winner is tough but Federer is sounding like a man on a mission, clearly irked at the talk of Murray usurping him, and it would not surprise me one bit if it is the Swiss who comes out on top for a fourth time in Australia and a 14th grand slam title.
gcaygill@thenational.ae