Roland Garros preview: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner on collision course and tough path ahead for Swiatek

The stage is set at the quaint and charming neighbourhood of Porte d’Auteuil in the 16th arrondissement of Paris, where the French Open is scheduled to begin on Sunday.

The women’s and men’s singles draws were unveiled on Thursday – with a little help from Paris Saint-Germain forward Ousmane Dembele – and it’s time to take a closer look at the biggest storylines heading into Roland Garros.

Swiatek handed daunting draw

Defending champion Iga Swiatek finds herself in unfamiliar territory entering this French Open – for the first time since March 2022, she is ranked outside the world’s top two.

Unsuccessful title defences in Madrid and Rome proved costly for Swiatek, who has slipped in the rankings this week and is seeded No 5 in Paris.

All eyes were firmly fixed on Swiatek’s name during the draw ceremony to see where she would land.

She ended up in a stacked second quarter that includes former Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko, who is 6-0 head-to-head against Swiatek, former Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina, in-form Ukrainian Elina Svitolina, and freshly-crowned Rome champion and last year’s French Open finalist Jasmine Paolini.

Should Swiatek emerge safely out of her quarter of the draw, she could square off in the semi-finals against world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka or Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen, who clinched a historic gold for China on the clay courts of Roland Garros at the Paris 2024 Games less than a year ago.

Swiatek opens her French Open defence against world No 41 Rebecca Sramkova and could get Emma Raducanu in the second round and Marta Kostyuk in the third round.

While her path seems daunting, it would be a mistake to forget just how dominant the 23-year-old has been on clay, and at Roland Garros specifically.

Swiatek has won four of the last five editions of the tournament, and is 35-2 overall on Parisian clay (not including the Olympics, where she took bronze last summer).

She has lost just eight sets in total through 37 matches at the French Open and her career record on the red dirt is a remarkable 98-14. That is an 87.5 per cent success rate on clay, at tour level.

As Sabalenka’s coach Anton Dubrov recently told The National: “Numbers show that Iga is dominating on the clay. The results of the previous years show that we cannot say anything that Iga is not great.”

Her tough draw means she’ll have extra motivation to be locked in from the get-go. Write her off at your own peril...

Can anyone stop Sinner and Alcaraz?

Before the clay season began, it would have been fair to say that the men’s tournament at Roland Garros felt as open as ever.

Carlos Alcaraz was having an up-and-down season, Jannik Sinner was serving a three-month ban, Novak Djokovic went winless between the Australian Open and Miami, and the first two Masters 1000 events of the year witnessed first-time 1000 champions in the form of Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik.

But now that we’re just two days away from its kick off, it feels like a final between the top two seeds, Sinner and Alcaraz, is almost a forgone conclusion.

Alcaraz arrives in the French capital having won Masters 1000 crowns on clay in Monte Carlo and Rome, along with a runner-up showing in Barcelona.

Meanwhile, Sinner returned from his suspension in Rome and extended his winning streak to 26 matches – which included a 6-0, 6-1 demolition of Madrid champion Casper Ruud in the quarters – before he fell to Alcaraz in the final.

The pair split the four majors between them last season. Sinner successfully defended his Australian Open crown in January, and Alcaraz is favoured to retain his Roland Garros title, given his 15-1 run on clay in the build-up.

Is there anyone that can spoil this narrative?

We’d be remiss to ignore a three-time Roland Garros champion in the mix; one who has not given up on trying to claim an all-time record 25th grand slam trophy.

Just like people were holding their breath, waiting to see where Swiatek would fall in the draw, many were anxious to see where Djokovic, seeded No 6 in Paris, would land.

The Serb is in the second quarter of the draw, which is home to last year’s runner-up Alexander Zverev, former world No 1 Daniil Medvedev, and in-form Argentine Francisco Cerundolo. Should Djokovic make it through his quarter, he could potentially take on Sinner in the semi-finals.

After losing back-to-back openers on clay in Monte Carlo and Madrid, Djokovic withdrew from Rome. But he has picked up some momentum in Geneva this week, where he celebrated his 38th birthday on Thursday by punching his ticket to the semi-finals.

The good news for Djokovic is that he was handed a relatively favourable draw in Paris, which could help him build up his form heading into the second week.

Others out to upset the order are: two-time Roland Garros finalist Ruud, fifth-seeded Draper, who made the final in Madrid, eighth-seeded Italian Lorenzo Musetti, who reached the Monte Carlo final and made semis in Madrid and Rome, and 18th-seeded Cerundolo, who owns a whopping 19 victories on clay in 2025.

Sabalenka wary of chasing pack

If there is one player who is undoubtedly thinking about capitalising on Swiatek’s current woes it would be Sabalenka.

The Belarusian recently admitted that she feels she has unfinished business in Paris, where she suffered some tough losses, against Mirra Andreeva in the 2024 quarter-finals and Karolina Muchova in the 2023 semi-finals.

Sabalenka’s clay preparations for Roland Garros included a title run in Madrid, a final showing in Stuttgart and a quarter-final exit in Rome.

She has made six finals from nine tournament appearances so far this season and as a three-time major champion, is the likeliest to dethrone Swiatek at the French Open – but it’s not going to be easy.

Sabalenka shares a quarter with Zheng, who beat the world No 1 in Rome last week.

Zheng was having a sub-par campaign before she caught fire in Rome, where she lost a three-hour 33-minute semi-final to Coco Gauff.

Second-seeded Gauff, a former runner-up in Paris, is another serious contender this upcoming fortnight, having made back-to-back finals in Madrid and Rome in the build-up.

Fourth-seeded Paolini has some unforgettable memories from last year at Roland Garros, where she made the French Open finals and won Olympic gold in doubles alongside her fellow Italian Sara Errani.

She won singles and doubles in Rome last week and is firmly back on the list of favourites for success at Porte d’Auteuil.

Also don’t sleep on last year’s semi-finalist Andreeva, who has won two WTA 1000 tournaments this season and lost to Gauff in the quarter-finals at both Madrid and Rome this month.

Svitolina has amassed a 12-2 record on clay in the last five weeks – including a title in Rouen – and will be hungry to improve on her four previous quarter-final appearances at the French Open.

Blockbuster openers

It’s not a grand slam if there aren’t some unmissable first round matches in both the men’s and women’s draws. Here are some notable openers to look out for:

Paula Badosa (10) v Naomi Osaka

Elena Rybakina (12) v Belinda Bencic

Zheng Qinwen (8) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Magdalena Frech (25) v Ons Jabeur

Carlos Alcaraz (2) v Kei Nishikori

Alexander Zverev (3) v Learner Tien

Daniil Medvedev (11) v Cameron Norrie

Roberto Bautista Agut v Holger Rune (10)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Stefanos Tsitsipas (20)

Hubert Hurkacz (30) v Joao Fonseca